And thank God for them, and for each of us, who, in small ways or large do the same. I’m not at all into nihilism or a Luddite (we live in extremely exciting and auspicious times), but it is important for me to assess probabilities of what may come. The first requirement for this is to have my eyes wide open, to cut through the ever deepening BS we’re all immersed in, either official BS or the self-defeating, self-generated kind. I’m a surfer of change – on the beach at times, on the waves at times, always looking ahead to see what the ocean is bringing me, so I can trim my path accordingly.

Over the years I’ve grown intentionally indifferent to the opinions of the ignorant, who hold forth firmly planted in their belief that their limited knowledge of the world is all and ends all. Their numbers are myriad, and their minds are closed, but they are Gods chosen.

Did it ever occur that the level of economic knowledge and understanding in the country is probably in negative numbers, just as the knowledge of propaganda free history is. But then facts are of little use to those who are exceptional, and exceptionally gifted. The response you take exception to was noting the helplessness of the public, held hostage to “leaders” seemingly incapable of thought. However you manage to get hate out of that is beyond my poor powers, but somehow you have managed to bring that part of yourself into the discussion. And since Obama was not even in the comment, maybe you should leave your luggage out as well. The question was the competency of the public in regard to economic affairs.
The last paragraph was noting that what foolish things are politically done in Washington are on view for the rest of the world, peoples not brain dead, able to critically decide how to conduct their lives, and that these peoples will, not having any other input, divest themselves of continuing the relationship with a failed hyper-power, and they will continue on, writing history.
Whichever way you wish to address this, is certainly subject to your freedom to choose.
I really was not going to respond at all, but that is discourteous.

I know there are ready examples of better modern societies than ours, and the average American shrieks and runs away when we mention them, so for a long time I tried to listen to the anti-capitalist and quasi-Luddite screeds, in hopes of gleaning something helpful. But eventually I grew tired of all the empty fulminating when instead, imo, these self-proclaimed oracles could have been creative, could have been doing some good in the world. In the meantime, I’ve had no trouble finding examples of Americans who spent their lives working very hard to make this society better, even though their eyes were open, and they could see all our faults and failings.

Obama will bring some needed sanity back to this country, but it’s my belief that the forces unleashed over the last couple of generations are beyond any one individual’s power to correct. Most importantly, Obama hasn’t even begun to talk about the need to rollback our empire, to begin to live within ours’ and the planet’s means, to rejoin the rest of the human race, and give up the childish notion of Amercan exceptionalism. I’m not even sure if he fully grasps this.

The world is watching the political insanity transpiring and will not wait for reason to prevail.

At the moment, the nation with the biggest grudge to bear is Iceland. Sorry, Bjork– will it help if I say I got what you were going for with that swan gown?

Re the “Stimulus package” before congress(sic); if you have never imagined what it is like for the cat, tied into a bag with rocks and thrown into a river (Disclaimer: absolutely NOT advocating such action), America will shortly be experiencing such circumstance, put there by the concerted efforts of your congress(sic) who have shown all the economic intelligence of a cow-pie. The American public is as helpless as said cat.


The world is watching the political insanity transpiring and will not wait for reason to prevail. American leadership is slipping into a thing of the past, the world will slowly disconnect from the present regime and replace the hegemon with a more appropriate and less damaging structure, avoiding the pitfalls learned from the American experience, and history will move on to record the doings of others.

An aside: What a difference a couple of weeks make! Listening to a Presidential Press Conference where the man at the podium actually has some real thoughts; and some carefully measured answers to good questions. No stupid pet nicknames like Stretch, or Biff, or Bedwetter, or Weepy, or The Blind Dude with the Shades. Or, having a male prostitute toss-up softball questions about patriotism.
Jesus, it’s a miracle that any of us didn’t blind and deafen ourselves on purpose over the last 8 years! If Bush had actually had more presser’s, that might have happened.

President Obama was tough, he was funny, and he was thoughtful. I have some renewed hope for this country after listening to President Obama. President Obama! God, I still can’t get over how good that sounds!!!
I have some critisism of him, as I’m sure, do we all. But, God, after that presser, how could you not feel at least a lttle bit better!

Dave S #8, some thoughts on what your financial planning guy told you.

1) All the debt in our system – and it’s massive, thirty or more years worth – will mostly need to be cleared out, written off, kissed good bye – before any serious recovery will take off. This will take at least four or five years or more is my guess. It depends on how long Paulson and now Geithner will continue to inject money into the banks, to forestall their day of reckoning. The Japanese were able to keep this going, “zombifying” their banks, as it’s called, for a decade or more, and this is the path Geithner is on, in the name of stability.

My take on the stimulus bill is that it is largely a make work bill, providing jobs for the unemployed, among other things. If done properly, it will build some mighty necessary things our country really needs, which will outlast the current crisis. A chief purpose is to ease the pain of the debt unwinding, for those who are out of work.

You’re trapped in a 401k where probably the only choices are to buy stocks or bonds, or mutual funds. IMO, neither is a good choice right now – stocks will decline further, is my bet. Even if you call the bottom correctly, it will be a long time before the stock market takes off again. The Great Depression is instructive – look at a price chart from the 1930s – stocks took three years to reach bottom, in 1932 – after several false rallies. We’re now only a year plus into the present-day decline. Stocks didn’t reach their 1929 peak again until 1954. Can you wait that long?

The great tragedy is that 401ks, IRAs, etc can legally be invested in other vehicles besides stocks and bonds, such as real estate. The majority of plans however restrict the universe of choices, and few participants are aware of the possibilities. If you could quit your job, then roll your 401k into an IRA that allowed these wide open choices, you’d escape being trapped in stocks. I have done something like this. Look up a company called Equity Trust Company – they’re a self directed IRA custodian that supports this kind of thing.

An even greater tragedy is that when IRAs and 401ks were invented – moving away from defined benefit plans to defined contribution plans – think about that piece of Republican “you’re on your own” – few people were taught how to invest, spawning an entire industry of “investment advisors”. Even fewer take advantage of these tax deferred plans. The boomers and beyond are therefore going to have an extremely rude awakening, a few years hence.

2) Cash is king in deflation, which is where we’re at right now. It’s wise to build a cash reserve. When inflation finally does hit – the backside of the hurricane – your debts, denominated in yesterday’s dollars – will begin to shrink, assuming you can lock in a low interest rate. If you’re able, before inflation hits, invest your cash into hard assets such as income producing real estate or gold – things that hold their value during inflation.

3) the mortgages you’re thinking of are Alt-As and Option ARMs. This blog entry talks a bit about them, graphically showing when they’re due to reset.

I’m not a certified financial advisor, planner or any such thing, so take what I’ve said with the appropriate grain of salt.