Four Days Later

The Senate Dems defeated all of the GOP junk amendments intended to derail the reconciliation package. Senate Republicans have been using every procedural trick they can find to slow down the Senate from doing anything. However, someone discovered a provision that didn’t fit the reconciliation rules. So it has to go back to the House. However, the fixes are minor, and at this point it seems unlikely that the House Dems would balk at making the changes.

From reading their sites, I’m not sure some righties understand that the former Senate bill remains law even if the reconciliation package were to be defeated. I get the impression they think defeating the reconciliation bill (which, among other things, repeals Ben Nelson’s “cornhusker kickback” that provided extra money for Medicaid recipients in Nebraska) will make the whole thing go away. It won’t.

Some rightie sites (and a few leftie ones) are touting the “discovery” that states may opt out of the mandate, which (some say) undercuts any arguments that the mandate is unconstitutional.

The provision (which I remember reading about some time back) is that a state can choose to opt out of the federal program entirely (not just the mandate specifically) IF it comes up with an alternative program that provides its citizens with the same access to coverage at the same rates, and with the same consumer protections. You and I know that’s not going to happen. And since the mandate is essential to keeping down the cost of insurance premiums for everyone, cutting the mandate alone would put a state afoul of the law. But I’d say it was a smart move on someone’s part to insert that into the bill.

[Update: See also E.J. Dionne, “Health Care and the New Nullifiers.”]

More troubling are the threats of violence and acts of vandalism aimed at House members and their families. But many of us speculated we’d see violence from the Right if the Democrats actually got serious about enacting progressive change.

And, of course, nothing has changed yet. All we’ve done so far is put a process in motion that will bring about change eventually.

I thought of that yesterday when I tried to get a Lipitor prescription refilled. I got into a new group plan through the Freelancer’s Union last year that saves me considerable money on premiums over my old individual insurance, which I simply could not afford. However, the group plan (through the infamous Anthem Blue Cross) is much less generous about actually paying for stuff. There’s always some reason prescriptions cost more than the $10 co-pay, for example, although the extra amount I’m required to pay varies from month to month.

But yesterday I was told I’d have to pay $95 to get a monthly supply of Lipitor. I told the pharmacist they could keep it. My arteries will just have to harden until I can get better insurance. (But, Anthem Blue Cross, isn’t the Lipitor cheaper than paying to treat heart disease? You’d think they’d encourage me to take the Lipitor instead of penalizing me.)

But mine is a minor problem compared to that of Robert Hollister, who has stage 4 cancer and who is falling through the cracks in the reform bill. He lost his job, and in September his insurance will expire. The HCR bill provides for subsidies for high-risk pools so that people like Hollister can get affordable insurance. However, there is a three-month waiting period, and even then he can’t apply until he has been without insurance for six months. Without chemotherapy, he doesn’t expect to live that long.

Such provisions are put in to protect insurance companies — they’re to discourage people from dropping their existing insurance companies in favor of the subsidized insurance. But where’s the protection for Robert Hollister?

HCR: Bump and Grind

The bump is a bump in the polls. Current polling says that a small majority of Americans are now in favor of the health care reform bill. So much for the Republican argument that “we have to stop this thing because the people don’t want it.” Nate Silver explains why he thinks the bump will fade a bit but not go away completely.

The Grind is the continued effort by Republicans to derail it. Part of the deal the Senate Dems made with the House Dems was to pass the reconciliation package unaltered. So Republicans are trying to load it up with junk and daring the Dems to note vote for it, like a provision to prohibit sex offenders from purchasing viagra. If Dems don’t include that, see, it must be because they sympathize with sex offenders.

Are challenges to the constitutionality of the mandate a real threat? Zachary Roth at TPM says could be, James Rosen of McClatchy Newspapers says probably not.

If you read nothing else today, be sure it’s David Leonhardt’s column in the New York Times:

For all the political and economic uncertainties about health reform, at least one thing seems clear: The bill that President Obama signed on Tuesday is the federal government’s biggest attack on economic inequality since inequality began rising more than three decades ago.

Over most of that period, government policy and market forces have been moving in the same direction, both increasing inequality. The pretax incomes of the wealthy have soared since the late 1970s, while their tax rates have fallen more than rates for the middle class and poor.

Nearly every major aspect of the health bill pushes in the other direction. This fact helps explain why Mr. Obama was willing to spend so much political capital on the issue, even though it did not appear to be his top priority as a presidential candidate. Beyond the health reform’s effect on the medical system, it is the centerpiece of his deliberate effort to end what historians have called the age of Reagan.

Update: Tea Party could hurt GOP in the midterms.

Update: Thanks to alert reader Bob for this.

Good Point

Rep. rush Holt (D-NJ) writes,

I’m reminded of one of the last times we voted on a Sunday: March 20, 2005, when Republicans forced an extraordinary vote to intervene in the case of Terri Schiavo.

To know what a real government takeover looks like, one should revisit that resolution.

Yep, that’s what a real government takeover of health care looks like.

The Republican strategy seems to be to go after the mandate as unconstitutional, according to the Republican definition of “unconstitutional,” which is “any law we don’t like.”

The Morning After

You know what I forgot last night? The dancing banana.

Righties are certain that America is doomed. They are more certain that the “Democrat” party is doomed in November. All they have to do is run against Obamacare, they say, and The People will flock to the polls to vote for Republicans.

Here are the terrible hardships that health care reform will place on the American people in the next six months, or between now and the November elections.

For people who already are in group insurance plans through their employers:

  • They are protected from being dumped by their insurers if they get sick.
  • Lifetime limits on coverage are suspended.
  • People can keep their children on their policies through the age of 26.
  • Insurers cannot refuse to insure children because of “pre-existing conditions.”
  • Policy premiums will not change on account of HCR.

Medicare recipients:

  • Get a free annual checkup.
  • Can skip co-pays and deductibles on many preventive care services.
  • Seniors who have fallen into the Medicare D “doughnut hole” will get a $250 rebate check in a few weeks.

The above are what Republicans will be running against. They’re going to continue to raise the alarm about provisions going into effect down the road, but the way they’ve been going on one might have expected tanks in the street today.

I’ve been reading reactions on comment threads here and there, and lots of people expect their health care premiums to double or triple right away and their taxes to go up to pay for the “entitlement.” Will they notice when these things don’t happen? Some of them won’t, of course, like the tea baggers who keep screaming about phantom tax increases. But a substantial percentage of people who are queasy about what’s going to happen next will be reassured when the sky doesn’t fall.

I also saw comments from people who claimed to be small business owners who believed the bill requires them to insure their employees and feared this would put them out of business. But the law has no such requirement. All they will get are dreadful tax credits to insure their employees if they choose to.

On top of that, there will be some immediate help for people who don’t have insurance now. Medicaid is expanded, some small business owners will get a tax credit to offset the cost of insuring employees, and some state high-risk pools will receive subsidies that should enable them to offer coverage to the “pre-existing condtion” crowd at lower rates. Combined with all the young folks who will be able to stay on their parents’ insurance awhile longer, by November there should be more insured people in America. How many I can’t say, but more.

One never went broke betting on the ignorance of the American public, but there’s one other dynamic you can count on — the “Greater Asshole” rule of public demonstrations. The rule is that in the eternal struggle between public demonstrators and The Establishment, public sympathy turns against whichever side is the Greater Asshole. Well, all this past weekend the Right pretty much went off the asshole scale. I doubt they’re going to let up.

It’s too early to make predictions about November, but in the near future I expect some movement upward in public support for President Obama, Democrats in Congress and health care reform.

Let It Be

I understand that the official HCR vote will be this evening, some time after 8 o’clock, and that President Obama will sign it into law asap. The Senate still has to pass the revision package, but I think that can be later. The Senate bill itself will have passed.

Today’s Vote

I’ve been out since early this morning and just got back to find that Dems are still trying to pull together the 216 votes. Like it or not, they need some of the Stupak gang. Apparently he said yes, but then he said no.

I literally cannot watch this. I will check in later to see how it’s going. In the meantime, talk among yourselves and post any news you hear.

Update: Stupak switches to yes. I think this means the thing will pass.

Wingnuts Threaten Congress

Josh Marshall writes that “crowds of anti-Reform/Tea Party activists” are going through the halls of the Longworth office building “shouting slogans and epithets at Democratic members of Congress.” Also, “We’re now getting reports that other protestors yelled ‘nigger’ at Rep. John Lewis (D-GA).” And they think government is oppressing them.

Think Progress reports that protesters outside the Capitol Building are carrying signs threatening gun violence if health care reform passes.

I’d say they are behaving like baboons, but that would be an insult to baboons.

Update: Think Progress reports that Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-MD) was spit on by a protester. Several reports say they called Rep. Barney Frank (D-MA) a “faggot.” Class to the end.

“Deem and Pass” Rejected

The House Rules Committee has rejected the “deem and pass” process and instead will put the Senate bill up for a vote tomorrow.

Here’s the plan: There will be three votes. The first is on a resolution that will set the terms for the debate. The second vote is on the amendments, and the third is to the Senate bill. The idea is that by voting for the amendments first the House wants to make it clear it is only passing the Senate bill as amended.

Meanwhile, the White House is working on an executive order meant to mollify the Stupak crowd. I hope it simply clarifies the existing bill and doesn’t open a door to further restrictions.

Update: I’m getting frantic emails from various feminist organizations calling for people to call the White House to stop the “capitulation” to Stupak. We don’t know what’s in the executive order yet. I suspect it’s just going to re-state the status quo, but we’ll see.