Daily Archives: May 18, 2010

Results

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Well, Rand Son of Ron won big in Kentucky, as expected. Waiting on other results.

Update, 9:36— Nate says Lincoln and Specter are in trouble, but he’s not calling the elections.

Update, 9:51: It’s not an official call, but a couple of sources are saying it’s going to be Sestak over Specter.

Update: 10:13 Sestak wins. Interesting.

Update, 10:48 It appears the Democrat, Crist Critz, will win John Murtha’s old seat. We don’t yet know the final margin, but it seems to be comfortable so far. Nate Silver had said that if the Dems win the seat by 5 or more, it should be a good omen for Dems in November.

Update: 11:43 The Arkansas race will go to a runoff.

Primaries

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Sorry I’ve been scarce. Today is a primary and special election day, so there will be lots to discuss tonight and tomorrow, no doubt. Nate Silver says the numbers somewhat favor Sestak over Specter in Pennsylvania — no tears over that one, although I don’t know much about Sestak — and he’s calling the Lincoln-Halter contest in Arkansas “murky.” Could go either way.

People are going to be reading these elections like tea leaves to get a glimpse into what might happen in November. Nate says the special election in Pennsylvania for John Murtha’s vacated House seat could be an omen, if either candidate wins by 5 points or more. In other words, if the Republican Burns were to win the election by 5 points or more, this might tell us that November is shaping up into a cycle that favors Republicans, and Republicans can expect to make substantial gains in the House and Senate. If the Democrat Crist wins by 5 points or more, it could mean conditions will be similar to 2006 and 2008, cycles that favored Democrats. However, if either one wins by less than 5 points, then the tea leaves aren’t telling us anything useful.

Right now, polls say it’s a nail-biter.

Polls say Rand Son of Ron Paul will coast to an easy victory in the GOP Kentucky Republican primary, and that Son will likely win in November as well.