Financial Reform

Yesterday the Senate passed what is being touted as “the most comprehensive regulation of the financial industry since the Great Depression.” Next up: Conference committee. It may not be long before there’s a bill President Obama can sign into law.

Republicans are still trying to get auto dealers excluded from the bill’s consumer protection provisions. I can’t think of any reason why Republicans would do this except that they’re being paid under the table to do it.

This morning the credit card industry is howling about an amendment introduced by Senator Durbin that was tacked onto the Senate bill at the last minute. I take it the amendment limits the fees Visa, Mastercard et al. charge merchants for debit card transactions, but so far most of the information I’m getting is from press releases being put out by Visa, Mastercard et al. So it’s a little murky. Another amendment introduced by Sen. Whitehouse of Rhode Island that would have allowed states to cap consumer credit card fees failed, however.

To me, the most interesting political story coming out of yesterday’s vote is that Scott Brown, the new Republican senator from Massachusetts, provided the 60th vote to cut off debate on the measure and also voted with the Dems to pass the bill. Already Brown has gone from being the fair-haired child to being persona non grata on the Right.

Last January some leftie bloggers analyzed Brown’s record as “liberal Republican,” meaning he’s progressive on some issues and conservative on others. Brown is “more liberal than Olympia Snowe,” said one.

Rightie bloggers hooted at this at the time. Today Little Lulu’s first commenter said, “Hmm, a Republican who’s even more liberal than Olympia Snowe or Susan Collins. Stranger species keep getting discovered.” Maybe the Rockefeller Republican isn’t extinct after all. But whatever Brown is, it appears he’s not stupid enough to think he can rack up a far-right record and win re-election in Massachusetts.

Face It — Rand’s a Jerk

If you missed the Rachel Maddow interview of Rand Paul last night, here it is:

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

A few days ago I argued with a gun-rights extremist that one person’s rights, respected absolutely, turn into other people’s oppression. And here’s a good example. Rand doesn’t think that civil rights laws should apply to private business, because such laws restrict a business owner’s “rights.” So Rand is just fine with going back to the days when restaurants could refuse to serve African Americans, because that’s what freedom is all about.

Rand Paul said this in an interview with the Louisville Courier-Journal:

PAUL: I would not go to that Woolworths, and I would stand up in my community and say that it is abhorrent, um, but, the hard part—and this is the hard part about believing in freedom—is, if you believe in the First Amendment, for example—you have too, for example, most good defenders of the First Amendment will believe in abhorrent groups standing up and saying awful things. . . . It’s the same way with other behaviors. In a free society, we will tolerate boorish people, who have abhorrent behavior.

In a free society, we have to draw lines between “boorish” and “dangerous” or “oppressive.” Words are one thing — sticks and stones, etc. — but discrimination that limits peoples’ opportunities and access to goods and services that other people enjoy, not to mention housing and jobs, goes beyond “boorish.”

One of Rand’s arguments on Maddows’ show last night was that if restaurant owners can be forced to serve people because of race, neither can restaurant owners bar customers carrying firearms. However, I never heard of melanin posing a safety hazard. And, y’know, guns are not intrinsic to your person in the same way race is. So there’s no parallel.

The story is that Rand refused to take his opponent’s concession phone call on Tuesday night. It’s not clear if that’s exactly what happened. It may have been more of an amateurish blunder than an intended snub.

Josh Marshall wrote of Rand’s acceptance speech that “he came off to me as arrogant, bellicose and even a little messianic in his demeanor. To put it baldly, he sounded like a jerk.” But someone pointed out to Josh that “arrogant, bellicose and messianic” is standard tea-party style; it’s what the baggers want from their “leaders.”

I don’t know where the polls are right now with Paul and his Democratic opponent, Jack Conway, but I hope the Dems make a fight of it, at least.

About the Results

I don’t have a lot of time to write something long and insightful, but here are some random thoughts —

First, I got a kick out of this headline at Real Clear Politics yesterday — “2010: Anti-Incumbent, Anti-Liberal, or Anti-Democrat?” Biased, much? Yesterday, this guy was predicting a 50-seat loss in the House for Dems in November. He hasn’t yet commented today.

I didn’t watch much of the television coverage, but when I did flip to MSNBC I saw that even as results were coming in Howard Fineman was still expecting the Dems to be flattened by a Republican tsunami in November. Fineman is something of a weather vane of the conventional wisdom of Beltway Insiders, so it’ll be fun to see if he changes his position in the next few days.

As usual, the most informative analysis comes from Nate Silver, who discusses why most of the conventional wisdom about yesterday’s results are off-base. In short, much of the national significance many are trying to see in the results is an illusion, a parallax effect, if you will. Most of the winners ran localized races and appealed to their voters for many local reasons.

In some ways, the biggest loser yesterday may have been Tim Burns, the Republican who lost to Mark Critz in the special election for the Pennsylvania 12sth district House seat. Polling numbers had made it a close race, and there were all kinds of indicators that the district was ready to vote for a Republican. The voters there are culturally conservative and voted for McCain in 2008. The NRCC dumped a bunch of money into the election, thinking they could pick off a Dem seat. Yet the Dem won by almost 10 points. The NRCC is perplexed.

“If you can’t win a seat that is trending Republican in a year like this, then where is the wave?” asked Tom Davis, a former Republican congressman from Virginia, who said Republicans will need to examine what went wrong.

I believe the lesson here, if the GOP can accept it, is that even conservative voters (with the exception of the teabaggers) are getting tired of the Republican Clown Show. I’ve read that Burns’s campaign was highly nationalized and featured many silly cartoons of Nancy Pelosi. Joan Walsh notes that it made Burns look as if he had mommy issues. It’s also about the fifth time that the GOP has run against Nancy Pelosi and lost.

I postulate that if Burns had presented himself as a serious grown-up and addressed genuine local issues, the election would at least have been closer. And I propose that most voters, people who are not that into politics, don’t give a hoo-haw one way or another about Nancy Pelosi.

Steven Benen writes,

For those keeping score, there have been seven special elections for U.S. House seats since the president’s inauguration 16 months ago: NY20, IL5, CA32, CA10, NY23, FL19, and PA12. Democrats have won all seven.

Right now, I’d say the safest bet is that Republicans will pick up some seats in the House and Senate in November, but not enough to gain majorities. But a lot depends on whether the GOP learns some lessons and changes campaign strategies for November.

Results

Well, Rand Son of Ron won big in Kentucky, as expected. Waiting on other results.

Update, 9:36Nate says Lincoln and Specter are in trouble, but he’s not calling the elections.

Update, 9:51: It’s not an official call, but a couple of sources are saying it’s going to be Sestak over Specter.

Update: 10:13 Sestak wins. Interesting.

Update, 10:48 It appears the Democrat, Crist Critz, will win John Murtha’s old seat. We don’t yet know the final margin, but it seems to be comfortable so far. Nate Silver had said that if the Dems win the seat by 5 or more, it should be a good omen for Dems in November.

Update: 11:43 The Arkansas race will go to a runoff.

Primaries

Sorry I’ve been scarce. Today is a primary and special election day, so there will be lots to discuss tonight and tomorrow, no doubt. Nate Silver says the numbers somewhat favor Sestak over Specter in Pennsylvania — no tears over that one, although I don’t know much about Sestak — and he’s calling the Lincoln-Halter contest in Arkansas “murky.” Could go either way.

People are going to be reading these elections like tea leaves to get a glimpse into what might happen in November. Nate says the special election in Pennsylvania for John Murtha’s vacated House seat could be an omen, if either candidate wins by 5 points or more. In other words, if the Republican Burns were to win the election by 5 points or more, this might tell us that November is shaping up into a cycle that favors Republicans, and Republicans can expect to make substantial gains in the House and Senate. If the Democrat Crist wins by 5 points or more, it could mean conditions will be similar to 2006 and 2008, cycles that favored Democrats. However, if either one wins by less than 5 points, then the tea leaves aren’t telling us anything useful.

Right now, polls say it’s a nail-biter.

Polls say Rand Son of Ron Paul will coast to an easy victory in the GOP Kentucky Republican primary, and that Son will likely win in November as well.

Anti-Authoritarians for Authoritarianism

I learned today that one of the items in the tea party grab-bag is repeal of the 17th Amendment. In other words, they want to go back to having U.S. senators chosen by state legislatures instead of voters. Evan McMorris-Santoro writes:

The “Repeal The 17th” movement is a vocal part of the overall tea party structure. Supporters of the plan say that ending the public vote for Senators would give the states more power to protect their own interests in Washington (and of course, give all of us “more liberty” in the process.)

If you feel a need to go take your blood pressure meds, I’ll wait.

McMorris-Santoro describes some Republican politicians caught between trying to appease the Baggers by rubber stamping their agenda and trying not to frighten away general election voters, who tend to be, you know, sane.

But if the tea baggers think the Senate is too “elitist” and corrupt now, just wait until Senate seats go back to being plums handed to cronies, fundraisers and relatives.

Really, this does reveal how twisted wingnut psychology has become. Even as they march around screaming about ending elitism and supporting freedom, their actions support elitism and diminish freedom. They are authoritarians spouting anti-authoritarian rhetoric in the service of authoritarianism.

I began a recent post by referring to James Madison’s Federalist #10. You might remember that much of the Federalist Papers amount to Madison, Hamilton and Jay reassuring people that a representative republic would not turn into “mob rule.” Most of the founders were well-educated, moneyed aristocrats — the elites of their time — and the last thing they wanted was for an uneducated rabble to be able to choose leaders and make policy.

Thus, senators were chosen by the states, and the Electoral College was envisioned as a panel of Wise Elitist Men who would choose the president and vice president instead of voters. That’s not how it turned out, but that’s what it originally was supposed to be.

One suspects that if the founders saw the state of politics today, they would have set up a monarchy.

I thought of those old dead aristocratic white guys yesterday when I read about the tea baggers at the Maine GOP convention who trashed the classroom in which they were caucusing:

The Republican convention was at the Portland Expo, but participants went to the nearby King Middle School to hold their caucuses. While there, they went through eighth-grade teacher Paul Clifford’s items, opened sealed boxes, stole a prized poster, and vandalized the room with Republican slogans. Some details on what they did:

– For seven years, Clifford has had “a collage-type poster depicting the history of the U.S. labor movement” on his classroom door. He uses it “to teach his students how to incorporate collages into their annual project on Norman Rockwell’s historic ‘Four Freedoms’ illustrations.” When Clifford returned to his classroom on Monday, after the GOP caucuses, the poster was gone; in its place was a sticker reading, “Working People Vote Republican.”

– Republicans opened a “closed cardboard box they found near Clifford’s desk” and later objected to the fact that it contained copies of the U.S. Constitution donated to the school by the American Civil Liberties Union.

– After the caucuses, “rank-and-file Republicans who were upset by what they said they had seen in Clifford’s classroom” began calling the school, objecting to student art they had seen and a sticker on a filing cabinet reading “People for the American Way — Fight the Right.”

I bet that’s one classroom full of kids who will grow up to be liberals.

Elsewhere — I found a column in the Cleveland Plain Dealer about the recent primaries in Ohio that made some interesting points. The Ohio “establishment” candidates soundly trounced the “tea bag” candidates, and the columnist noted that it’s in caucuses and conventions that tea baggers most effectively promote their candidates. We really haven’t yet seen that the tea baggers can consistently deliver elections. The Massachusetts “miracle” of Scott Brown winning Ten Kennedy’s seat may have been a fluke, IMO, caused by a very poor Dem candidate — apparently widely disliked in the state — losing narrowly to a Republican who is proving to be less radical than the tea baggers would like.

You, Too, Can Be an Econoblogger!

I think I’m qualified to be the “econoblogger” for The Atlantic. That’s because the one they’ve got, Megan McArdle, is as bad at arithmetic as I am. Tbogg writes,

You really have to hand it to The Atlantic who chose to hire as their “Econoblogger” a woman whose facility with numbers would get her fired as a cashier at Wendy’s after two days.

That would be me, too, except that cash machines these days tell you how much change is owed. As long as that’s the case I could probably manage.

One difference between me and McArdle is that I’m aware that I’m bad with arithmetic, whereas McArdle seems blissfully oblivious. As Jonathan Chait wrote of her, McArdle is “frequently in error, but never in doubt.”

Another is that I’m better at basic smarts than she is, which might disqualify me for the Atlantic gig. Awhile back Brad DeLong nominated McArdle for the title “stupidest woman alive.” There’s an entire blog dedicated to her titled “Fire Megan McArdle.”

Just google “megan mcardle is an idiot” sometimes, and you’ll find links to some of the best writers on the web, reduced to blubbering at the magnitude of McArdle’s obtuseness.

In fact, opinions on McArdle constitute a shorthand intelligence test. Ask anyone on the web what they think of McArdle, and if they say they admire her, you’re looking at an idiot. Or a libertarian. But I repeat myself.

That last bit is the real key to McArdle’s idiocy. Whatever intelligence she was born with has been replaced by libertarian ideology, leaving her with the critical thinking skills of dryer lint.

I bring this up because McArdle has embarrassed The Atlantic once again, with a post called “The Health Care Reform Already Costs More Than We Thought It Would.” As Ezra Klein explains, McArdle has confused discretionary spending with new spending.

Now, I’m not a whiz with complex cost estimates, either, and this is a mistake I might have made. However, I wouldn’t have gone public with my criticism without checking with someone who has more knowledge of such things than I do. Also, I am not the business and economics editor for The Atlantic.

But, hell, if McArdle can be the business and economics editor for The Atlantic, so could I. And so could the chair I’m sitting on.

Teh Stupid Has No Limits

The question for the day is, how stupid does a prominent wingnut have to be before he becomes an embarrassment to the Cause? I’m saying that if they didn’t hit bottom with Jonah Goldberg and Erick Erickson, there is no bottom.

Erickson found Elena Kagan’s undergraduate thesis, written in 1981. According to Erickson, it is proof she is a socialist. Erickson wrote, “This proves Elena Kagan is an open and avowed socialist. The woman declares that socialists must stick together instead of fracture in order to advance a socialist agenda, which Kagan advocates.”

I skimmed the thing; it’s a paper submitted to Princeton’s history department titled “To the Final Conflict: Socialism in New York City, 1900-1933,” and she examined economic, cultural social, and other reasons why socialism didn’t take hold in the city (and by extension in the U.S.) to the same extent that it did in other countries.

What it isn’t is an argument in favor of socialism. On page 126, she wrote, “The socialists’ was a sterile program, suited to a sterile party.” Not a ringing endorsement.

So if we find out that, say, Condoleezza Rice wrote a thesis about the Soviet Union (which she probably did), does that make her a Communist?

See also: Scott Lemieux, “Breaking!!!!! We Have Evidence That Erick Erickson Isn’t Very Bright!!!!!

NRA: Tyranny of the Minority

In The Federalist #10, James Madison discussed the concept of the tyranny of the majority. He addressed the concern that a political, ideological or religious faction might take control of the federal government and oppress people outside the faction. Factions are inevitable in a free society, he said, but in such a large country he thought it unlikely that any one faction could come to dominate the entire nation.

We should consider whether communication technology is has rendered Madison’s argument obsolete. In the 18th century, communication could take days or weeks to go from one part of the country to another, making mass organizing difficult by any but the most tenacious leaders of the most compelling causes. Today, any idiot can push a button and reach multitudes. Combine that with the pernicious influence of campaign and lobbying money, and a well-organized faction can pretty much run roughshod over everybody else.

Not content with merely supporting an individual right to own firearms, the National Rifle Association is hellbent on eliminating all restrictions on any citizens carrying guns anywhere he or she wants, including churches, workplaces, and now bars and restaurants. This is in spite of the fact that even in the most 2nd-amendment lovin’ red states a large majority of people think it’s a real bad idea for a bunch of drunken yahoos to be packing heat.

Yes, the new Tennessee law that lifts all restrictions on where a citizen can carry a concealed weapon, including into bars, provides that the carrier must abstain from drinking. Like that’s even enforceable.

A bar owner can, supposedly, keep guns out of his bar if he posts a clear, legible sign that says guns are not permitted. People opposed to the law argue that this places too much law-enforcement responsibility onto the bar owner.

Jeff Woods writes for the Nashville Scene:

As much of Tennessee reeled from the record-breaking flood, state lawmakers remained dry atop Capitol Hill last week and dealt with dispatch with the most pressing issue of the day. Yes, as the folks back home were losing their homes and livelihoods to the disaster, legislators passed yet another law to let our 270,000 state-licensed gunmen take their firearms into places that serve alcohol.

This time, they dropped the pretense that they were acting on the demands of their constituents. An MTSU poll, in fact, showed last year that 80 percent of Tennesseans are against mixing guns with booze. Law officers are against it too, and so are restaurants, hotels and essentially the state’s entire tourist industry.

No, this time lawmakers made it clear they were kowtowing to the almighty National Rifle Association—and proud of it!

One state Republican legislator named Joe McCord, who is not running for re-election, had the guts to speak the truth:

“Essentially — I’m not quoting; these are my words — the NRA is saying to us, ‘If you don’t support and vote for carrying guns in bars, we will not endorse you and will in fact oppose you,’ ” McCord said. “I’ve got a strong history of supporting and advocating for the NRA, but this line of reasoning is just bordering on lunacy.

“Your preacher, your teacher, your spouse, your parents—nobody’s 100 percent right. The NRA is not right here, and we’re not standing up to them. … It makes me wonder, what line will we not cross for the NRA? I’m just curious. At what point do we say this is too much?”

From an editorial in The Tennessean:

The Tennessee General Assembly has voted against the wishes of a majority of the people of this state for the second year in a row with its bill to allow guns in bars and restaurants.

Why would legislators do this? Why would they put the safety of citizens and the state’s hospitality industry at risk? At first, it seemed to be all about the swagger — conservative legislators and their buddies fulfilling their Old West (or maybe, their modern Mel Gibson) fantasies.

That’s frightening enough. But Wednesday night, it became apparent that legislators pursued this terrible law in the service of a different constituency: the National Rifle Association.

According to the Paris (TN) Post-Intelligencer, just before the vote was taken the House Republican Caucus invited an NRA lobbyist to address the group. “That’s a privilege usually granted only to legislative liaisons who work for government agencies,” the P-I said. “The lobbyist’s message was clear: Vote the NRA way or the organization will campaign against you in upcoming elections.”

The NRA’s argument is that while the militia may be “well-regulated,” any restriction on an individual citizen’s ability to carry a firearm amounts to an “abridgment” of the 2nd Amendment right to keep and bear arms. This assumes that all such rights are absolute and untouchable by law under all circumstances, but we certainly have never treated any other right that way. Freedom of speech doesn’t include a right to publish and distribute hard-core pornography, for example. Freedom of religion doesn’t rubber stamp human sacrifice.

The NRA is using bullying tactics to impose its will on lawmakers, even when a whopping majority of constituents (and probably the lawmakers’ consciences, if they have any) disagree with the NRA’s position. There are some cities and states in which a big majority would prefer some level of legal gun control, for safety’s sake.

Now the wingnuts are screaming that Elena Kagan is opposed to gun rights because

Elena Kagan said as a U.S. Supreme Court law clerk in 1987 that she was “not sympathetic” toward a man who contended that his constitutional rights were violated when he was convicted for carrying an unlicensed pistol.

Note the “unlicensed” part. More recently she has said,

“There is no question, after Heller, that the Second Amendment guarantees individuals the right to keep and bear arms and that this right, like others in the Constitution, provides strong although not unlimited protection against governmental regulation,” she said.

But that’s not good enough for the gun nuts, who predictably compared Heller Kagan to Third Reich Nazis.

The crazy part of this is that the basic position of the gun lobby — that the 2nd amendment protects an individual right to own firearms — is settled law at this point. And the issue of gun control isn’t even on the progressivist back burner any more, compared to, say, 15 years ago. It’s not even in the bleeping kitchen.

About the only way gun rights are going to be seriously challenged in the foreseeable future is if there is a huge swing of public opinion in the direction of more gun control. A few shoot-outs in Tennessee roadhouses might do it.