Jobs Up, Mitt Down

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Obama Administration

The jobs report is out, and it’s decent. Greg Sargent summarizes.

The news will be taken as a relief by the Obama campaign. It will allow Obama to continue making the case that the economy is healing — and it will undercut Mitt Romney’s closing argument that only putting him in charge will bring about a “real recovery.” However, today’s numbers are unlikely to impact the presidential race in a dramatic way. It solidifies the fundamentals that have persisted for many months now — this is a weak recovery, but it is a recovery, which means a very close presidential race, with a narrow advantage to the incumbent.

What these numbers really mean is that the last remaining catastrophe that could have derailed Obama’s reelection effort didn’t happen.

Meanwhile, there are signs Mittens is in panic mode. Alex Seitz-Wald says that Romney campaign ads are getting more desperate. As I wrote yesterday, he’s trying to tie President Obama to Fidel Castro. He’s doubling down on the lies about the auto bailout and has brought back the ads claiming that Obama “gutted” the welfare work requirement. In other words, he’s trying to stampede as many low-information voters as he can to the polls.

Also, Jonathan Capehart comments on a Romney super-PAC ad that reminds black voters Lincoln (a Republican!) freed the slaves! Yeah, that’s gonna work.

Mitt also has been “expanding the map” at the last minute, going into states in which he doesn’t have a prayer. Seitz-Wald:

Now take a look at where Romney is campaigning in the waning days of the campaign. There’s no bigger weapon in the campaign’s arsenal than the candidate himself, so where it sends him is a good sign of where its priorities are. The Romney campaign has been insisting that it’s in such a strong position that it’s expanding the map by making a play for mostly safe blue states like Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Michigan and even New Mexico (where Obama won by 15 points in 2008). And indeed, both campaigns or the super PACs supporting them are now up with ads in these states.

But Romney isn’t going anywhere near those states. He’s doing three events in Virginia today, which he should have put away weeks ago so he could concentrate on other states. Tomorrow he heads to Wisconsin, where’s he’s still the deep underdog, and after that Ohio, which he absolutely needs to win, but is still down. Then it’s to Colorado, where he may win but Obama has been making a mini comeback. Then he’s off to Iowa and New Hampshire, where he’s down, but could really stand to win.

More likely, the “expand the map” strategy is about his campaign and their allies having more money than they need in the real swing states and a desire to “keep the ‘momentum’ storyline going,” as Amy Walter notes, even if it’s no longer true.

Romney must believe he has Florida already, or else he’d be spending half of his time there. If he loses Florida it’s probably all over for him. But the most recent Reuters/Ipsos poll has Romney and the President dead even in Florida. Nate Silver gives Romney a slight edge in Florida, but calls it a tossup.

Steve Kornacki thinks the “expand the map” strategy is a sign of both desperation and incompetence. At the last minute, Romney is pushing his campaign into states he has been ignoring for months and which are all but sewed up for Obama. He might be competitive in those states now, Kornacki says, if he had been campaigning in them all along. But he didn’t, and he’s not.

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26 Comments

26 Comments

  1. c u n d gulag  •  Nov 2, 2012 @11:23 am

    If Romney loses, and I’m a Billionaire who invested a lot of my easily inherited and earned money in Super PAC’s to help him win, I’d want to call in Karl Rove and have him in for a little talk about the atrocious ROI.

    I’d have him walk out onto a bridge made of ice, over the shark tank in my office.

    I’d ask him to account for Romney’s loss and what he did with the money, and how he plans on repaying me, and watch the fat-boy sweat until it melts the bridge under him, he does his final belly-flop, and sleeps wid da fishes – what’s left of him, that is.

  2. joanr16  •  Nov 2, 2012 @11:35 am

    I think it was Chris Matthews I heard yesterday saying that Massachusetts, which Romney used to govern, hugely favors Obama. Out of curiosity, I checked Massachusetts polls from the last 10 days, as compiled on Politico; Obama is ahead anywhere from 19 to 32 points. Even a 19-point lead is a mighty bitchslap, coming as it does from one’s formerly-governed.

    So, this week, Romney has been rejected by The Economist, Michael Bloomberg, Colin Powell, and the people of Massachusetts. Today Nate Silver has Obama’s chances of victory back above 80% for the first time since The Awful First Debate. We may be able to go to bed early next Tuesday night.

  3. Bill B.  •  Nov 2, 2012 @12:07 pm

    Volunteering at the local animal shelter makes me keenly aware how difficult it is to run a charitable organization on private donations. Though our base (inadequate) budget is county-funded, we succeed only because of volunteers who do the following:
    1. Post pictures of animals to Petfinder
    2. Solicit donations by giving out shopping lists at grocery store
    3. Call rescues looking for vacancies
    4. Arrange, transport and run adoption fairs
    5. Write checks to pay for extra vet care
    6. Run pre-spay program for cats
    7. Transport animals to rescue groups
    8. Foster animals when shelter is overcrowded
    9. Purchase supplements and meds
    10. Arrange warehouse damaged goods donations
    11. Get grant money to support spay/neuter for low-income households
    12. Socialize uncared-for animals by foster or daily visits to handle them

    You get the idea. Now try to imagine Romney-fied volunteerism replacing FEMA! And as a county shelter with required acceptance of whatever is brought to the door, we are not no-kill. I think that is how Romney’s FEMA would have to be, too.

    If Hurricane Sandy alone does not get the message across, what can?

    If you need a dog or cat, look us up on Petfinder.com, zip code 27379. The pictures there show about half our animals. Jax and Daisy are my special favorites. Fees include spay/neuter and basic rabies/distemper shots.

    If you want to help the Northeast, call the Red Cross or the Salvtion Army.

    If you want to help America, vote Obama!

  4. c u n d gulag  •  Nov 2, 2012 @12:16 pm

    Easy, Joan – unless you’re going to bed for a couple of months of sleep.

    While President Obama has his firewall states, the Republican Party has its own firewalls:

    1. Voter suppression and intimidation.

    2. Electronic Voting Machines that flip faster than Trump’s wig in a hurricane wind.

    3. Contesting elections via the courts – for The SCOTUS win.

    4. If they can eke out a tie – for The House win.

    5. And if they lose – secession and/or rebellion.

    I kinda don’t mind if the last one happens. ‘On the way out – don’t let the door hitcha, where the Mason-Dixon line splitcha!’

  5. Lynne  •  Nov 2, 2012 @12:16 pm

    The Economist picked Obama as the lesser of two evils, in their view.

  6. Dan  •  Nov 2, 2012 @12:25 pm

    So sad – too much money to spend where it might do some good.

    And to think, the owners of all that “Left Wing Media” (who all seem to support Republicans at the top) getting all that money back, so they can recycle it through again next time.

    Maybe C.U. was not the total disaster we imagined – we may have reached saturation (and it seems to have led to the weak Romney nomination on the R side).

    At least 30% of the ad space here in sunny Nevada is for or against specific politicians, and another 10% is for/against a Party. Cut and paste Letters to the Editor (which had to cost the Republicans money to produce) are flooding the newspapers. I have been receiving 4+ robocalls per day from Romney people (they think that will change someone’s mind?), plus another 1-2+ robocalls for other Republican candidates, not even mentioning the Republican computerized push polls, an occasional legitimate poll, and a couple of calls per week by live Democrats asking for personal support (we have 2 registered voters: 1x D and 1x R, by design, in the household).

    Normally, we get a couple of push-poll fundraising letters per year (plus a dozen or so ‘informative’ fundraisers per month) from the Rs, plus the obligatory NRA material monthly; we get maybe one info-letter fundraiser from the Ds per month.

    Telling that the Democrats use live people to do their dirty work, while the Republicans rely almost entirely on massively annoying overkill of the electronic and impersonal kind. Says something about their ideology, I think.

  7. Lynne  •  Nov 2, 2012 @12:34 pm

    CUNDGulag, I can’t say I disagree with your last sentence. Pretty sick of the South’s attitude. I have liberal friends there, hope they will move north, at this point.

  8. Tom_B  •  Nov 2, 2012 @1:00 pm

    ” a Romney super-PAC ad that reminds black voters Lincoln (a Republican!) freed the slaves! Yeah, that’s gonna work.”

    They had to go back a bit to find a republican pres whose name they dare invoke in the presence of undecided voters. Meanwhile, Jeb continues tour– he wants Obama to apologize for speaking the name of W in public.

  9. moonbat  •  Nov 2, 2012 @1:01 pm

    Got some insight by stumbling on to Politico’s Playbook.

    The desperate ads linking Obama to Castro and Chavez are because Florida is so extremely close. A few hundred or thousand Latino votes could make the difference for a huge electoral college win.

    Mitt is spending money in Pennsylvania, because it’s been largely devoid of presidential advertising. “If ever there were a place where a last-ditch torrent of money could move the needle, this is it.”

    It turns out Joe Biden and Mayor Bloomberg have been friendly for years and have played golf together. Joe called several times during Sandy, and finally pressured the endorsement out of Bloomberg.

    Gah, I feel like a gossip writer for Us.

  10. Tom_B  •  Nov 2, 2012 @1:04 pm

    Michelle coming to NC– Charlotte this time– on Monday. Nate is giving Mittens 80% odds of taking the state, but who’s to say that turn out or new registrations (many amongst students and Latinos) won’t give us a “Two-peat”, to use basketball lingo?

  11. joanr16  •  Nov 2, 2012 @1:17 pm

    Gulag… a friendly wager? I’m willing to emulate Nate Silver and put– well, my pride at least– on the line. I say the presidential contest will be decided by midnight EST on election night. And not for Romney!

  12. c u n d gulag  •  Nov 2, 2012 @1:28 pm

    Joan,
    Sorry, I can’t wager against what I hope happens.

    I was just giving my usual pessimistic Eyore/Slavic outlook.
    If an optimist sees a glass that has 1/2 of it’s volume full, that person say’s, “The glass is 1/2 full!” A Russian/Ukrainian looks at that same glass, and says, “Who drank half our vodka?!?!” And we always assume it’s the Germans. Here, I’d say it was the Conservatives.

  13. joanr16  •  Nov 2, 2012 @1:41 pm

    And we always assume it’s the Germans.

    Ha! Very wise, that.

    Well, if the election does go into overtime, I vow not to go to bed at all that night. And I may fall off the wagon as a recovering nail-biter.

  14. Tom_B  •  Nov 2, 2012 @1:44 pm

    “And we always assume it’s the Germans.”

    The Germans are a civilized and friendly people these days. The Right has been in a serious tiff since AT LEAST the Voting Rights Act.

  15. joanr16  •  Nov 2, 2012 @2:03 pm

    The Germans are a civilized and friendly people these days.

    Well, except for Merkel. And being three-eighths German myself, I know they are not to be trusted with anyone’s vodka!

    Unfortunately, in the 1930s they gave the American Right some useful models for installing gradual political repression, aka the “frog in hot water” methodology.

  16. erinyes  •  Nov 2, 2012 @5:39 pm
  17. erinyes  •  Nov 2, 2012 @6:55 pm
  18. erinyes  •  Nov 2, 2012 @7:45 pm

    Four Romney robo calls in the last hour, and it’s not quite 8pm.

  19. moonbat  •  Nov 2, 2012 @7:59 pm

    @erinyes – that “Mitt Romney style” music video is a scream!!! Forwarding it on..

  20. erinyes  •  Nov 2, 2012 @8:52 pm

    Yeah, Moonbat, I especially like the Paul Ryan character.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IsPBuKe6_ws

  21. Doug Hughes  •  Nov 2, 2012 @9:50 pm

    A few thoughts. I have been playing with the electoral vote scenarios. Looking at JUST the swing states…If Mitt does not have a lock on Florida now, he’s screwed. Even with Florida, Mitt needs Ohio and 2 more states… If Mitt has to ‘defend’ Florda now, it’s game over. On the other hand, Obama can lose OH and still have multiple paths to get to 270.

    I would love for Obama to visit FL this weekend and give a speech on Mitt’s multiple positions on FEMA and federal disaster help. Which Mitt would be making decisions when budget decisions on preparedness must be made? If FEMA is shortchanged for a few years running, the ability of the federal government to respond is degraded. The reasoning behind disaster planning is EXACTLY the same as military preparedness except you have more to fear from a hurricane than you do an invasion. A really strong statement would resonate in the southern-most state that looks like a limp dick.

    Last bizarre thought, or two,for the day. Can someone old enough to remember the ‘Sound of Music’ whip up lyrics that would start.. ‘How do you solve a problem like Mitt Romney?’……

    Also for those more visual.. how about a photoshop or cartoon of Obama in jungle-bunny regalia – ring in his nose and a spear in his right hand – a shrunken head dangling from his left hand – on the face of the shrunken head – the profile of Mitt Romney.

    Alas, I have no time and no talent in music or art.

  22. Bill B.  •  Nov 2, 2012 @10:00 pm

    Does this worry anyone else?
    http://www.freepress.org/departments/display/19/2012/4768
    Evidently new, untested software has been suddenly added to Ohio’s electronic voting report system?

  23. c u n d gulag  •  Nov 3, 2012 @6:32 am

    At this point in this country, maybe we need to do what the Iraqi’s did – dip fingers in purple ink, so if a recount’s needed, people can just show up and five the SoS of Ohio the finger.

    We need a Voting Rights Act, where we standardize voting in this country. For those Conservatives who bitch about “Voter ID,” I always tell them, ‘You need multiple forms of ID to register – why should you have to carry all, or any, of those forms of ID to vote? Voter fraud is a fraud!”
    But ok, if the Voting Rights Act makes some BS ID’s necessary when you vote, I’d be ok with that. At least then, nation-wide, everyone would know what to bring, and how to get it. What we’re doing now is feckin’ idiotic!
    Oh, and HOW ABOUT SECURE VOTING MACHINES!!!
    I can’t believe that after 2000 in FL, and 2004 in OH and NM, we still haven’t insured a simple, tamper-proof method of casting votes.

    The rest of the world must be laughing at us. Banana Republics have better methods of insuring peoples right to vote, and counting their votes accurately.

  24. c u n d gulag  •  Nov 3, 2012 @7:04 am

    And thank goodness, Bloomberg came to his senses and cancelled the NYC Marathon.

    Because nothing would have said “FECKIN’ STUPID!!!” like handing out water to runners from around the world, while thousands and thousands of people in the Tri-State area don’t have access to it.

    And never mind all of the police and EMS people being there, and using gas to get there, instead of somewhere they could be of real help.

    Instead of holding the Marathon, how about sending the local runners who’d trained for the event, out into the boroughs with water, food, and gas containers, strapped to them, to hand out to people? Call it the Tri-State Tri-help-pathon.

  25. c u n d gulag  •  Nov 3, 2012 @8:47 am

    I know resources are short after Hurrican Sandy, but someone needs to give Rudy a big cup of STFU!
    I kid thee not – Obama should resign over Benghazi:

    http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/11/02/in-fiery-speech-giuliani-calls-on-obama-to-resign-faults-him-for-libya/?hpt=hp_t3

    Rudy, bubbeleh, did your pal, W, resign over ignoring “Bin Laden Determined To Attack In US?”, and almost 3,000 dead in NYC, DC, and PA?
    Did your hero, Ronnie, resign over the 240+ dead Marines in Lebanon?
    And never mind them, Rudy, did you resign over putting the NYC Emergency Reponse Center in the WTC buildings which HAD ALREADY had a terrorist attack, and that drastically affected the cities response to the attack on 9/11?
    No shame… No shame… No shame…

  26. Doug Hughes  •  Nov 3, 2012 @9:55 pm

    C U N D GULAG – “We need a Voting Rights Act, where we standardize voting in this country.”

    Let me give you a heads up and preview of –

    http://thecivilistpapers.org/

    On the left sidebar, click on ‘One Person – One Vote’. It’s exactly what you ordered and we’re going to do it in the second half of Obama’s second term. Go ahead and prowl around – we aren’t live yet, though.

    This isn’t just a website – we are incorporated in the state of Florida, and we are in the process of getting 501 federal tax exempt status.

    The next four Civilist Papers outline WHAT we want to do to reform Congress – the three essays above the Civilist Papers on the left sidebar describe HOW. The twin concepts – a specific agenda and a plan to enact the agenda are what sets us apart – I hope. Suggestions and constructive criticism welcome – particularly before we go live.



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