Browsing the blog archivesfor the day Sunday, November 4th, 2012.


Tuesday Night Poll Closing Watch List

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Obama Administration

Clip ‘n’ Save for Tuesday night — Of course, we won’t know winners right away after polls have closed, but this in the order in which polls will close, by state, and the Electoral College votes for each state. “swing” states are bolded, states that ought to be safe for Obama are blue:

At 7 pm EST, polls will close in these states:

  • Georgia 16
  • Indiana 11
  • Kentucky 8
  • South Carolina 9
  • Vermont 3
  • Virginia 13

If Virginia is called for President Obama, Romney’s shot at 270 electoral college votes will already be remote.

7:30 pm EST:

  • North Carolina 15
  • Ohio 18
  • West Virginia 5

Some are still calling North Carolina a “battleground” state, but the chances the President will win there are remote, and I’m assuming Romney will win North Carolina. The President is favored to win Ohio, but if he loses, and Mittens has Virginia at this point, we may be in for a grim night.

8 pm EST:

  • Alabama 9
  • Connecticut 7
  • Delaware 3
  • Florida 29
  • Illinois 20
  • Maine 4
  • Maryland 10
  • Massachusetts 11
  • Michigan 16
  • Mississippi 6
  • Missouri 10
  • New Hampshire 4
  • New Jersey 14
  • Oklahoma 7
  • Pennsylvania 20
  • Rhode Island 4
  • Tennessee 11
  • Washington, DC 3

Mittens is still trying to win Pennsylvania, but Nate Silver says there’s a 97.3 percent chance of an Obama win. A Romney win there would be a huge upset.

New Hampshire is on the edge of being safe for Obama, but not quite.

I keep wanting to call Florida the “silver tuna.” Mitt pretty much has to win Florida if he’s going to get to 270.

So by 8 pm, we’ll be chewing our nails and waiting for the networks to call Virginia, Ohio, and Florida. If Romney wins all three of those, he has a real shot at winning the election. If he loses any of them, he probably won’t. If he loses Florida, especially, it’s probably out of reach for him. He’d have to pull off a major upset in one or two “big states,” like Pennsylvania, to make up for it.

If by chance Obama wins all three of those, we can go to bed on time.

8:30 pm EST

  • Arkansas 6

9:00 pm EST

  • Arizona 11
  • Colorado 9
  • Kansas 6
  • Louisiana 8
  • Minnesota 10
  • Nebraska 5
  • New Mexico 5
  • New York 29
  • South Dakota 3
  • Texas 38
  • Wisconsin 10
  • Wyoming 3

Some pundits are still talking about Wisconsin and Michigan as if they were still up for grabs, but Nate Silver has chances of an Obama win above 90 percent for both states.

By 9:30 or so we may know whether Colorado will matter, either way. If Mitt has Florida and most of the other battleground states, Colorado may help him. If not, it won’t matter. Of course, we may not know anything yet.

10 pm EST:

  • Iowa 6
  • Montana 3
  • Nevada 6
  • Utah 6

Iowa and Nevada are both “likely” states for Obama.

11 pm EST:

  • California 55
  • Hawaii 4
  • Idaho 4
  • North Dakota 3
  • Oregon 7
  • Washington 12

If everything is going as expected, the West Coast will nail it down before midnight, I hope.

1 am EST:

  • Alaska 3

Now, what are the chances a “problem” state like Ohio or Florida will hold everything up by demanding a recount? The good news is that President Obama ought to be able to get to 270 votes without Florida and Ohio, and even without Florida, Ohio, and Virginia, which are the most likely states to hang everything up, IMO. To do that he would need all of the “blue” states above plus Colorado, Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire, but he’s probably going to get them. If President Obama clearly wins either Ohio or Virginia, then barring some upset of a major blue state, Florida won’t matter.

My point here is that some critical states with earlier poll closing times are probably going to tell us where the wind is blowing, so to speak.

7:31 Ohio and North Carolina too close to call.

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The Guns of Brooklyn

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Obama Administration

Right-wing news media claim that Mayor Bloomberg tried to keep the National Guard out of Brooklyn because they carry guns. I find that odd, since there were armed National Guard in lots of places in New York City for several years after 9/11, and this was while Bloomberg was mayor, and he didn’t have a problem with armed National Guard in Grand Central Station or Penn Station or Rockefeller Center or Wall Street or anywhere else I used to see them.

And, anyway, there are National Guard in Brooklyn, according to a Brooklyn newspaper.

Reading between the lines a bit, what seems to have happened is that Borough President Marty Markowitz asked for National Guard to stop looting in places like Coney Island and Seagate. And Bloomberg said no, that’s what the NYPD is for.

Commenters to The Blaze appear to assume that all of New York is being terrorized by roaming gangs of criminals and there is no law enforcement helping them. Actually, the NYPD is not known for being shy about using firearms against suspects, and it’s actually very good at crowd and riot control, although I haven’t heard of actual riots going on — well, a lack of riots never stopped them from doing riot control before, come to think of it — or looting of a widespread nature. Some isolated incidents do not warrant calling the troops.

The NYPD is the biggest police force in the country. If it were an army, it would be the 7th largest in the world. Mayor Bloomberg joked just last year that “I have my own army.”

Keeping the NYPD doing law enforcement and letting National Guard do disaster relief sounds like a sensible use of resources to me.

I’m not sure if the Guardsare under Governor Cuomo’s authority or federal authority, since I believe Guard units from outside New York have come here to help. In any event, I’m not sure Mayor Bloomberg would have any real authority to say where they are deployed, anyway.

New York City actually has a much lower rate of violent crime than most other large American cities, although most of America seems to think New York is the most dangerous place in the country.

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