Tuesday Night Poll Closing Watch List

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Obama Administration

Clip ‘n’ Save for Tuesday night — Of course, we won’t know winners right away after polls have closed, but this in the order in which polls will close, by state, and the Electoral College votes for each state. “swing” states are bolded, states that ought to be safe for Obama are blue:

At 7 pm EST, polls will close in these states:

  • Georgia 16
  • Indiana 11
  • Kentucky 8
  • South Carolina 9
  • Vermont 3
  • Virginia 13

If Virginia is called for President Obama, Romney’s shot at 270 electoral college votes will already be remote.

7:30 pm EST:

  • North Carolina 15
  • Ohio 18
  • West Virginia 5

Some are still calling North Carolina a “battleground” state, but the chances the President will win there are remote, and I’m assuming Romney will win North Carolina. The President is favored to win Ohio, but if he loses, and Mittens has Virginia at this point, we may be in for a grim night.

8 pm EST:

  • Alabama 9
  • Connecticut 7
  • Delaware 3
  • Florida 29
  • Illinois 20
  • Maine 4
  • Maryland 10
  • Massachusetts 11
  • Michigan 16
  • Mississippi 6
  • Missouri 10
  • New Hampshire 4
  • New Jersey 14
  • Oklahoma 7
  • Pennsylvania 20
  • Rhode Island 4
  • Tennessee 11
  • Washington, DC 3

Mittens is still trying to win Pennsylvania, but Nate Silver says there’s a 97.3 percent chance of an Obama win. A Romney win there would be a huge upset.

New Hampshire is on the edge of being safe for Obama, but not quite.

I keep wanting to call Florida the “silver tuna.” Mitt pretty much has to win Florida if he’s going to get to 270.

So by 8 pm, we’ll be chewing our nails and waiting for the networks to call Virginia, Ohio, and Florida. If Romney wins all three of those, he has a real shot at winning the election. If he loses any of them, he probably won’t. If he loses Florida, especially, it’s probably out of reach for him. He’d have to pull off a major upset in one or two “big states,” like Pennsylvania, to make up for it.

If by chance Obama wins all three of those, we can go to bed on time.

8:30 pm EST

  • Arkansas 6

9:00 pm EST

  • Arizona 11
  • Colorado 9
  • Kansas 6
  • Louisiana 8
  • Minnesota 10
  • Nebraska 5
  • New Mexico 5
  • New York 29
  • South Dakota 3
  • Texas 38
  • Wisconsin 10
  • Wyoming 3

Some pundits are still talking about Wisconsin and Michigan as if they were still up for grabs, but Nate Silver has chances of an Obama win above 90 percent for both states.

By 9:30 or so we may know whether Colorado will matter, either way. If Mitt has Florida and most of the other battleground states, Colorado may help him. If not, it won’t matter. Of course, we may not know anything yet.

10 pm EST:

  • Iowa 6
  • Montana 3
  • Nevada 6
  • Utah 6

Iowa and Nevada are both “likely” states for Obama.

11 pm EST:

  • California 55
  • Hawaii 4
  • Idaho 4
  • North Dakota 3
  • Oregon 7
  • Washington 12

If everything is going as expected, the West Coast will nail it down before midnight, I hope.

1 am EST:

  • Alaska 3

Now, what are the chances a “problem” state like Ohio or Florida will hold everything up by demanding a recount? The good news is that President Obama ought to be able to get to 270 votes without Florida and Ohio, and even without Florida, Ohio, and Virginia, which are the most likely states to hang everything up, IMO. To do that he would need all of the “blue” states above plus Colorado, Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire, but he’s probably going to get them. If President Obama clearly wins either Ohio or Virginia, then barring some upset of a major blue state, Florida won’t matter.

My point here is that some critical states with earlier poll closing times are probably going to tell us where the wind is blowing, so to speak.

7:31 Ohio and North Carolina too close to call.

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15 Comments

12 Comments

  1. biggerbox  •  Nov 4, 2012 @3:34 pm

    My company has me on a plane during the critical poll-closing hour. I’m hoping that when I land, there will be enough precincts reported that we’ll know about Virginia and Ohio, and I’ll walk off the plane to find that Obama is re-elected. (No, I’m NOT enough of a political junkie that I’ll pay for in-flight wi-fi so I can monitor early results.)

  2. c u n d gulag  •  Nov 4, 2012 @3:50 pm

    Me and my Obama-lovin’ Mama will be watching MSNBC after dinner, so thanks, maha, for this much needed guide.
    Hopefully, we can go to bed at a decent hour, but I’m prepared to stay up WAAAAAAAY past my bedtime, to, say, 11 at night.

    Maybe, if things are looking really good, I’ll switch to FUX Noise, for my fall dosage of much needed schadenfreude. I’m sure they’ll make “The Trojan Women” look like a feckin’ sit-com.

    BTW – even if Obama wins handily that night, I expect the Republican legal machine to go into overdrive.
    All the better to propel that “voter fraud” propagandistic BS, and keep it front and center in the MSM. All the better to keep voter suppression and intimidation, and how the Democrats still won, out of the news.
    They will contest almost EVERY result.

  3. Obama's biggest fan  •  Nov 4, 2012 @4:53 pm

    Given all the diarrhea of the mouth coming from the other side, I expect I’ll need a lot of potty breaks tues night — thanks for helping me plan my toilet breaks.

  4. Tom B  •  Nov 4, 2012 @8:20 pm

    Sandy broke their “Romentum” according to some of their talking heads. Global warming. Wouldn’t that be ironic (neglecting the fact “Romentum” had already peaked, according to Nate).

    It ain’t over, though, till it’s over.

  5. maha  •  Nov 4, 2012 @8:40 pm

    Global warming. Wouldn’t that be ironic

    Karma loves irony. :-)

  6. Doug Hughes  •  Nov 4, 2012 @8:54 pm

    Florida is going to be WAY interesting. It’s within a half of a percent in Nate’s latest estimation. Most polling companies do not do bi-lingual surveys. If they get someone on the phone who can’t/won’t do the poll in English – they are skipped. Since the number of non-English non-responses is not recorded, even Nate can’t calculate how much of a factor it will be.

    If Florida falls to Obama, with Virginia and Ohio – this will look like an electoral college landslide – even if the popular vote is within 2% – which is realistic,

  7. Stella  •  Nov 4, 2012 @9:00 pm

    Thanks Maha. I’m trying to keep the faith and not obsess over disasters that may come. So, I’ll be checking to see what you (and your commentors) have to say about it all. No doubt we will survive as best we can, and will keep our democracy alive as we must.

  8. Tom B  •  Nov 4, 2012 @9:24 pm

    “Florida is going to be WAY interesting.” Humongous waits in poor neighborhoods for early voting. Definate attempt at suppression by not providing more machines. That said, if there are ENOUGH Dem voters, we may pull it out.

  9. justme277  •  Nov 5, 2012 @12:52 am

    I wonder am I the only one chain smoking? My house is so clean(I clean when stressed) that I am afraid a new reality show will appear like hoarders , called “cleaners” People will gasp in horror across the nation as they gaze upon my over clean abode. I am out of stuff to clean and I still have two days. I keep having this same dream, like 4 times in a row now. I wake up on the day after the election and I ask my man “Well what happened? Who won?” ( already a bad sign since I didn’t know before bed) – he doesn’t answer –Long pause. Then he says “Naw, your guy won” but something about the way he says it makes me ask “really?” And I wake up before I can get a straight answer. Then I reach over and smack him and call him an asshole for not telling me the answer in my dreams.So I am sorry to report since my man is a jerk in my dreams too I can’t tell you how it turns out. In his defense he said” can you blame the dream me for not wanting to be the one to give you the news either way?, you even scare HIM at election season” I hope the part about not knowing before bed is wrong. I am a night person so if we don’t know by 5 am when I go to bed that is not gonna be good.

    I guess it is bothering me in my dreams because it is so far from being an election of one person for me and so many people I know(and the millions more I don’t know). I know of a man who has worked for firestone making tires for 25 years. He is 55. He has planned and saved his whole life , doing the right things so that he could retire at 60. He has pension, 401k, savings and his toys are paid off. He wants to retire to Branson Mo where taxes on property are cheap and fish. His body is worn out. They make HUGE 1000 lb tires for tractors, ect and years of it has taken it’s toll, along with breathing the rubber. If mittwitt wins this man will have to work until the day he dies to afford health care. He will have 30 years in of working 12 hour days , 6 days a week. He spent most of his life working HARD and his reward will be a punishment of another 20 yrs(if he lives that long) of more hard labor.

    I know a gal who lost her husband about 3 years ago to cancer. They were so young when he got sick, they never planned. She is now left with 3 kids. One who has downs. She holds down a full time and TWO part time jobs ( the part time jobs pay for the boy with downs healthcare ONLY). She also takes classes on line to improve her job in the medical field. Before Obama care she was always worried how her son would get medical care once he became an adult. Can you even imagine the weight of the world that Obama care lifted from her already full shoulders?To put that burden back into her heart- to give her a life sentence of worry about her son is beyond cruel. Her son has specialized care givers that make it possible for her to work and support her family. Sure one of us pals can watch him for a hour or two but the care he needs takes so much more. If mittwitt is elected her life, her kids lives will be crushed again. There won’t be funds to help her but ann will still get a 79k deduction for her Olympic horse.
    How will she be able to work with no care giver? THINK of whats at stake for her and her family. How can you have a heart and sleep at night knowing what will become of them.

    I got stories for days like this of people I KNOW. I couldn’t face them if I didn’t do my duty knowing their lives depend on the out come.I know so many people who’s future DEPENDS on the election. When I cast my vote on Fri. I cast it for all of those people – the ones I know and those I don’t. I voted for them. For their future.A vote for mittwitt is a vote against your neighbor, against your community, against the future. How can anyone vote against that?

  10. Doug Hughes  •  Nov 5, 2012 @8:20 am

    Here’s the big thing. This was THE election. The demographic shift twoards Hispanics and young people is a certainty unless all us old white guys refuse to die. In four years a shift (this isn’t scientifically accurate – I don’t have the numbers) of 1% loss to conservatives – due to an aging population becoming a deceased population and a 1% increase in young liberal voters, more Hispanics and other minorities means a net 2% increase for democrats in the next presidential election.

    The GOP could become more attractive to moderates by changing their platform, which means dissing the evangelicals and fiscal nuts. They would have to recognize women’s rights and make concessions on tax policy. (This won’t happen in 2016 – they MIGHT wise up to demographic reality by 2020.) This is like getting possession of the ball when you are three points up in the last minute of the game. If you wait out the clock with no fumble or interception – it’s game over.

    Yes, there will be regional attacks on our rights – there will still be obstructionists in the House for years. But Obamacare will survive. The complexion of the Supreme court won’t jeopardize Roe v Wade – and may even shift to a ‘liberal’ majority – depending on the appointments of the next 4 years. On Tuesday, the tide starts to go out for the GOP – irrevocably and irreversibly.

  11. c u n d gulag  •  Nov 5, 2012 @8:34 am

    justme, and everyone,
    I feel better about this election today than I have in months.
    Cup O’ Schmoe Scarface is bitchy, very bitchy, this morning. Mika was talking about Florida, and the voter suppression there, and all that idiot Joe could say, was, “Benghazi,” over and over again – with his arms crossed the whole time.

    This is what LOSERS DO!

    Having said that, I’m SOOOOOOOOOO tired of this election.

    And what the idiot’s on the right, and Politico (but, I repeat myself), don’t acknowledge, is that President Obama will have a greater percentage of WHITE males and females, than Romney will Blacks, Hispanics, Asians, Gays, and any, and EVERY, other minority in this country.

    And Schmoe just said, “Benghazi, Benghazi, ” again. So, I feel even much, MUCH, better.

    Say it AGAIN, @$$HOLE!!!

  12. dr. luba  •  Nov 5, 2012 @4:28 pm

    FYI Michigan is in the eastern time zone, and our polls close at 8 pm.

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