I don’t expect any breakthroughs today. However, there are a number of news stories out saying that (1) the GOP is hemorrhaging support in the polls; and (2) the establishment GOP has had it up to here with the baggers.
My question is, does the establishment have a base any more? Or has the Tea Party eaten it?
The reason the most confrontational congressional Republicans have seized the party’s controls is that they are most directly channeling the bottomless alienation coursing through much of the GOP’s base. That doesn’t mean Republican voters have broadly endorsed the party’s specific tactics: In this week’s United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll, even GOP voters split fairly closely on the wisdom of seeking concessions on President Obama’s health care law through the debt and spending showdowns (while almost every other group preponderantly opposed that idea).
But the kamikaze caucus, by seeking to block the president by any means necessary, is reflecting the back-to-the wall desperation evident among grassroots Republicans convinced that Obama and his urbanized, racially diverse supporters are transforming America into something unrecognizable. Although those voters are split over whether the current tactics will work, they are united in resisting any accommodation with Obama.
Overlooking some of the both-sides-do-it framing, what the article says is that the GOP’s white, aging base is obsessed with the belief that “big government” amounts to their tax money paying for cushy benefits for the less deserving (i.e, not white). They honestly believe that the Democratic Party gains votes by getting minorities dependent on government handouts that white people don’t get.
Those findings suggest that the real fight under way isn’t primarily about the size of government but rather who benefits from it. The frenzied push from House Republicans to derail Obamacare, shelve immigration reform, and slash food stamps all point toward a steadily escalating confrontation between a Republican coalition revolving around older whites and a Democratic coalition anchored on the burgeoning population of younger nonwhites. Unless the former recognizes its self-interest in uplifting the latter—the future workforce that will fund entitlements for the elderly—even today’s titanic budget battle may be remembered as only an early skirmish in a generation-long siege between the brown and the gray.
The joke is, of course, that a whole lot of white people depend on those “entitlements,” too, and not just Social Security and Medicare.
However, judging by current poll numbers, the hard-core baggers are not by themselves a big enough group to keep Republicans in Washington. With congressional district gerrymandering and deep pocket donors the GOP isn’t going to disappear. They’ll likely keep control of the House for a while. But unless the party can make a significant course change to broaden its base, the 2010 midterms may have been their last hurrah for, well, a long time to come.
Maybe forever? The actual death of a major party is not something that happens often, and I’ll believe it when I see it. But for the end-is-nigh arguments, see John Judis and Elias Isquith.
This ever more multi-cultural country, scares our Conservatives to no end.
And they are growing ever more desperate, to hold onto what they think is rightfully theirs – and theirs, alone.
I’ve redone Dylan Thomas’ great poem, to express what I think is going on.
Do not go gentle into that DARKIE NEW LAND,
Old age should burn and rage at close of day;
Rage, rage against the dying of the WHITES!
Though wise WHITE men at their end know DARKIES is COMING,
Because their words had forked no lightning they
Do not go gentle into that DARKIE night.
Good WHITE men, the last wave by, crying how bright
Their frail deeds might have danced in a green bay,
Rage, rage against the dying of the WHITES!
Wild WHITE men who caught and sang the sun in flight,
And learn, too late, they grieved it on its way,
Do not go gentle into that DARKIE NEW LAND!
Grave WHITE men, near death, who see with blinding sight
Blind eyes could blaze like meteors and be gay,
Rage, rage against the dying of the WHITES!
And you, OUR COUNTRY, there on the sad height,
Curse, bless US now with your fierce tears, I pray.
Do not go gentle into that DARKIE night.
Rage, rage against the dying of the WHITES!
And rage, is all the rage, with Conservatives these days!
The joke is, of course, that a whole lot of white people depend on those “entitlements,†too, and not just Social Security and Medicare.
Which is why the Greedy Old Perverts expend massive resources through Rabies Radio and Fux News to stoking low-income whites’ cultural vanities and resentment of minorities. If they wake up to who is really screwing them and start voting their economic interests, the Repukes are toast.
The actual death of a major party is not something that happens often, and I’ll believe it when I see it.
That’s something I’ve been wondering about for a while. I’m not quite predicting the demise of the GOP, but it wouldn’t astonish me either. Their fall into superminority status in California came sooner than I’d expected, and they are doing absolutely nothing that will help them regain support in California and the other states where they’ve become irrelevant.
Of course it’s true that the Democrats are irrelevant in some other states, but the Republicans’ commitment to the all-white-people strategy leaves them no way to expand their base. As long as their message to three quarters of the population is “Drop dead!” their days are numbered.
I heard some audio of the Boner saying something like: we have spent more than we took in for 55 of the past 60 years, I think he said this just last sunday. He’s right I looked it up. The logical question would be: Mr. Orange you have been in congress for the 22 years, in leadership roles since 1994, why did you allow us to get in this mess? Why do you suddenly feel the need to reverse half a decade of reckless spending before October 17th. Please Mr. Boner lay off the booze for a while and clear you head!
I see that Utah decided to pick up the tab for opening the national parks in that state. They’ve decided it’s good for business and worth the 100 to 1 ratio for return on their expenditure. I guess you can deduce from that fact that somebody is feeling the fallout from the teabaggers last stand.
It does seem like the party somehow managed to, well, destroy itself but it kind of fits – scortched-earth, no-thought-of-consequences, exploit-it-now strategies all backfire eventually. The question is how many people make a profit off of them while they last.
I see the Republican party splitting one way or another and you end up with a business/corporate center-right group and a crazy rightwing group backed by a strong base and crazy millionaires. The Repulbican party will either divide or shed – if it sheds the crazy, the crazy WILL form their own party.
However what I think gets interesting is remember a lot of the motivators for the batshit crazy wing – racism, homophobia, conspiracy theories, etc. If their “market” is that group then they’re essentially concentrating the crazy, and with their negative images, others will use it against them and define themselves as their opposites. The Democrats have by being, well, Democrats, and the more corporate/business Republican types will have to do so in turn or dilute their brand.
That would be a serious earthquake in politics. To finally have the racism, sexism, and religious fanaticism localized in one small, despised party – with its crazy exposed like it has been lately. Therefore to not be like “those crazy Tea Party people” political groups will define themselves by the opposite, even ones that may formally have exploited it.
I fully expect “Tea Party” to remain as a political insult for a decade or so.
“I see that Utah decided to pick up the tab for opening the national parks in that state.”
Think of it as a state-based economic stimulus program.
Don’t forget that the Democrats have their own far left conspiracy-believers, Fang. They always startle me when they show up. They are as scary to me as the right wing, because I always think I’m going to find common cause with them until I get slapped.
California refused to pay for opening its national parks. Why should we pay for tea bagger nonsense?
Why should we pay for tea bagger nonsense?
moonbat…That’s hopefully the question everybody should all be asking.
I have been watching the ‘negotiations’ phase of the conflict – nervously. Obama needed to open up talks. I hope Obama brings to the table some of his high-priority projects – as if those are negotiable. Let the GOP declare that the only thing they are offering is to reopen government and not default on the debt. If so, then this is hostage taking. Otherwise, if they want to put reduced benefits – Medicare and Social Security on the block as part of their position. MAKE THEM OWN IT Let democrats be opposed in principle but willing to negotiate if the GOP will pass immigration reform and raise the min wage. Oh, and let’s let the negotiations be televised.
The GOP has applied the strategy of wanting cuts, but wanting the sacrifices to be ‘bi-partisan’ to give them cover with their base. Screw THAT! Make THEM declare that they want to rob seniors to pay for tax cuts. This is how the ‘negotiations’ can drive coffin nails in the Tea Party.
In another part of the discussion, Graham says, Obama and the senators discussed legislation to “repatriate†overseas income from U.S. corporations as one way to replace the sequester spending cuts enacted in the Budget Control Act.
Sung to tune of When Johnny comes marching home:
When the money comes flowing home again, hurrah, hurrah
We’ll give it a hardy welcome then, hurrah, hurrah
The Dems will cheer and the Baggers will pout
The people they will all turn out.. but we’ll all be glad
When the money comes flowing home. Hurrah, hurrah
Fang,
I’d love to be proven wrong, and have the Teabaggers split and form a 3rd Party – but I’m not as optimistic about a break-up as you are.
Internally, the Republicans may have had their differences over the years, but they have held together.
For decades, they have been a fairly tightly-held confederation (pun, intended) of big business, anti-Socialism/Communism, and Evangelical Christians.
Most recently, they added another Manichean group, the John Birchers – and blended them into the Tea Party.
Now, they’re having a big spat.
But, they won’t break-up.
What will hold them together – is their absolute hatred of ALL things Liberal/Progressive!!!
As I’ve said countless times, Modern Conservatism has had no ideas for decades.
Conservatives are no longer proactive.
They are reactive.
They are FOR any and every thing that Liberals/Progressives are AGAINST!
And AGAINST any and every thing that Liberals/Progressives are FOR!
And this can change on a moments notice, if/when Liberals/Progressives, adjust their views.
For example:
The Heritage Foundation, free-market plan for Bob Dole’s run for President in the ’96 race – and later implemented by Republican Governor Mitt Romney, in MA, in anticipation of using it as a selling point to get elected.
Instead, once adapted by the Democrats, virtually the same plan became a SocialistFascistCommunist plot against America, freedom, and liberty – and associated with Satan, and Armageddon.
I suspect that what we’re seeing lately, is the result of traumatic brain injuries caused by doing a complete 180 at such high speed, in such a quick period of time!
Also on the discussions phase….No matter what is ‘agreed’ to, There has to be a majority in the House that approves. If Obamacare never goes on the block for auction, the Tea Party is going to balk. If non-bagger republicans don’t join with 100% of the democrats, any compromise will fail. So it’s got to be a straight CR, OR it has to be liberal enough to appeal the House Democrats almost universally and still get a minority of House republicans. That makes the White House talks trivial when you think about it, except that Obama creates cover for himself by being willing to break bread with the Scribes and Pharisees.
With all the christian speak from bachmann, crude, and now Randie Paulie; I’m surprised there his been no mention of the rapture. I guess thr e rapture index is way down,what with Obama care and “such” pigging the headlines.
Ha! My auto correct on the mini-pad made teddy’s name “crude”. Maybe this thing is smarter than I thought.