The Wave That Is Not Waving


The GOP have their hopes pinned on a “wave” election in November, but right now several of the “statistical models” being use to predict the Senate elections are moving in the direction of Democrats. Nate Silver says the Dems have drawn almost even. The Washington Post’s prognosticators  have moved from predicting a huge Republican win to giving Dems a 51 percent edge. The New York Times now says it’s a tossup, although their model has shifted around quite a bit. Sam Wang still says 80 percent Dems.

What seems to be happening with at least some models is that as we move closer to the election the models are giving less weight to history and more to actual polls. We have many conditions in place that history says point to a Republican wave. But in real world land, it appears the wave isn’t waving.

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  1. Dolorous Stroke  •  Sep 17, 2014 @12:18 pm

    Romney blamed his defeat on too many of the wrong people (i.e., people who typically vote Democratic when they do vote, but who often don’t vote at all) voted. Here’s hoping that trend continues.

  2. uncledad  •  Sep 17, 2014 @12:36 pm

    I believe the only wave is in the imaginations of the dominant right-wing media. If you watch FAUX and or read and listen to the rest of the right-wing noise machine Obama is a complete disaster and the country will surely turn towards the tea-tards come November. Fortunately for this nation only 3-4 million or so knuckle-heads watch FAUX and believe the crap that comes from the right-wing noise machine. SO it will be close only because the margins are so thin but I suspect it will be much like the last election the democrats will pickup a few house seats (not enough to replace the tan man) and the senate is still a toss-up, hardly a Wave!

  3. joanr16  •  Sep 17, 2014 @1:06 pm

    Not waving but drowning, said the poet Stevie Smith.

    Anyway I fear it will be close.

  4. Swami  •  Sep 17, 2014 @1:29 pm

    The Dems should refresh the public’s memory of the government shutdown in their campaign ads. I know for myself and probably a majority of Americans that the government shutdown was seen as the GOP’s complete abdication of responsibility. It was political game playing that cost our nation about 24 billion dollars in unnecessary costs and an untold amount of suffering and anxiety. The shutdown didn’t fare well for them then, and a reminder might not fare well for them in November.

  5. c u n d gulag  •  Sep 17, 2014 @1:41 pm

    In blood-red FOXylvania, it’s not gonan be a wave, it’s gonna be a tsunami!

    Going to FOX for news, is like going to a shipyard to catch your flight.

    I’ll be holding my breathe until the 1st Wednesday in November.
    But before that, I’ll be helping GOTV in my district – via phone, since I can’t get around much anymore.

  6. uncledad  •  Sep 17, 2014 @4:50 pm

    I guess this guy won’t be part of the coming GOP wave. Ahh it is good to see the GOP’s future is secure!!!!!

  7. Swami  •  Sep 17, 2014 @6:31 pm

    uncledad …Tis a shame the Repugs lost another salt of the earth candidate.

  8. Swami  •  Sep 17, 2014 @8:16 pm

    Check out the links on this page…It’s sorta like Abraham, Martin, and John…I just looked around…and they were gone!