Oops.

Now the Dems are worried that Hillary Clinton may not have as strong a lock on the “black vote” as they had assumed. Especially the younger “black vote.”

Young African-Americans, like all voters their age, are typically far harder to drive to the polls than middle-aged and older Americans. Yet with just over two months until Election Day, many Democrats are expressing alarm at the lack of enthusiasm, and in some cases outright resistance, some black millennials feel toward Mrs. Clinton.

Now they notice.  Especially after the early southern primaries in which African American voters gave Hillary Clinton what would prove to be an insurmountable advantage in the pledged delegate count, establishment Democrats have assumed African American voters were safely locked in the “we’re with her” box.

Indeed, for a time we who supported Sanders were jeered at as letting our “white privilege” show, because if we really cared about African American issues we’d support Hillary, for some reason that was never clear to me. And no other politician on earth beside Hillary Clinton could be counted on to defeat Donald Trump, we were told.

Of course, those early southern primaries were held before voters had had much of a chance to know who Bernie Sanders even was.

A Gallup poll back in February showed a whopping 31 percent of black Democrats polled didn’t even have an opinion of Sanders yet, while only eight percent had no opinion in regards to Clinton. Obviously Clinton had much more name recognition than Sanders, but 1/3 of the voters of an entire race is a staggering number—and one that could clearly cost a candidate dearly.

And I’m sure Sanders regrets not working harder to make himself known. But it still stinks.

Sanders enjoyed a the support of a majority of black millennial voters, a point usually buried deeply in the few news stories that mentioned it at all. But now the Clinton campaign is in general election mode, and to their consternation they are realizing they can’t count on the black millennial vote. And this could cost them some swing states.

The question of just how many young African-Americans will show up to vote carries profound implications for this election. Mrs. Clinton is sure to dominate Mr. Trump among black voters, but her overwhelming margin could ultimately matter less than the total number of blacks who show up to vote.

To replicate President Obama’s success in crucial states such as Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, she cannot afford to let the percentage of the electorate that is black slip far below what it was in 2012. And while a modest drop-off of black votes may not imperil Mrs. Clinton’s prospects, given Mr. Trump’s unpopularity among upscale white voters, it could undermine Democrats’ effort to capture control of the Senate and win other down-ballot elections.

The real problem is that Democratic elites cleared the field for Clinton before the primaries even started to be sure she’d be the nominee. They had persuaded themselves from polls that the Democratic base adored her and would support her candidacy with wild enthusiasm. But the same polls taken at the same point in the election cycle showed exactly the same thing in 2007, as well. The truth is that a big chunk of the Democratic base has been lukewarm, at most, to her all along. And independent voters are not even lukewarm.

With the DNC’s partisan help, and with no real competition in the primaries other than an aging socialist, she prevailed. IMO if Joe Biden or Sherrod Brown or Liz Warren or a number of other well-known Dems had challenged her, she probably would have lost the nomination again. Hence, the field had to be cleared. The elites seem to have missed the part about how an astroturf candidate might be weak in the general election.

Mrs. Clinton’s difficulties with young African-Americans were laid bare in four focus groups conducted in Cleveland and Jacksonville, Fla., for a handful of progressive organizations spending millions on the election: the service employees union, a joint “super PAC” between organized labor and the billionaire environmentalist Tom Steyer, and a progressive group called Project New America. The results were outlined in a 25-page presentation by Cornell Belcher, a Democratic pollster, and shared with The New York Times by another party strategist who wanted to draw attention to Mrs. Clinton’s difficulties in hopes that the campaign would move more aggressively to address the matter.

The only message that Clinton is getting out is that she’s not Donald Trump, and that ought to be enough to win the election, because Trump is horrible. But one does wonder what she’s raising money for.

Clinton is beginning September with $68 million in her campaign coffers. The hefty war chest means the Democratic White House hopeful has the resources to continue an expensive ad blitz against Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, while also investing in an expansive field operation.

The only Clinton television ad I’ve seen more than once is one in which Trump is on a television talk show showing off his ties made in China. The black millennials (and white ones, also) want to know what she plans to do about systemic racism, including mass incarceration and police conduct. She’s issued statements about these things, her campaign says.

Do you know what those statements are? This information is sorta kinda on  her website, if you want to read about it, but I haven’t seen anything in news media. And yes, Trump is sucking all the air out of news coverage. But Clinton hasn’t held a splashy public event in several weeks. She’s been busy raising money.  That field operation she’s investing in must be something.

There’s still the debates, and I still expect her to win. But she’s still a terrible candidate.

8 thoughts on “Oops.

  1. IMO – Just as t-RUMP will be the death of the GOP as we know it, Hillary will probably be the death of the DNC – if not the Democratic party.

    t-RUMP has exposed the racist, xenophobic, misogynistic, homophobic, religiously intolerant – among other bigotries – for everyone to see.

    Hillary has exposed the sclerotic roots of the Democratic partyl
    Instead of an open primary, with the folks that you mentioned, maha, they stuck with Hillary. Those folks would all have been more popular than she is.
    And, while Kaine is a nice, safe, VP choice, he’s my age, and we need new blood.

    I don’t know how or what’s going to happen after election day, but shit will start to come down around both parties heads.

    Anyone have any opinions on what will happen?

    I can see a hard-right party, and a more liberal party. But how quickly they can get into power enough to win national elections, is for far greater minds than mine to figure out.

  2. I believe HRC has been distributed a lot of cash down ticket. I don’t have a link for that, though.

    I’m feeling better about Clinton. The Congress (with “useful idiot” complicity from the Press and recent help from Vladimir Putin) have devoted the bulk of their energies to trashing Clinton for over 4 years and all they have been able to come up with that isn’t fluff is that Debbie Wasserman is a b*tch. At this point, Clinton’s fully stress-tested.

    In contrast, Trump is scared sh*tless about people seeing his taxes and, apparently, is feeding state attorneys general hush money (mostly related to Trump U) right and left. And his collaborators are Ukrainian agents, Fox rejects, and white supremacists.

    I have to hope that’s enough incentive to get voters off their tushes.

  3. I’ve mentioned before that I don’t trust Hillary…To clarify that, I’d like to say the level of distrust I have only applies to trusting her to make the right decision on issues that would or could affect her political climb to the top. My assumption, although wishful, is that once Hillary achieves the highest office in the land that she’ll be able to make decisions and actions based on what she knows to be right rather than on political expedience or running with the herd.
    Trump on the other hand offers a frightening prospect. His history shows that his only allegiance is to himself and his offspring. He could care less for what’s in the best interest of the American people. I would consider it a big mistake to trust Trump in any matter. Trust is not a quality that inhabits any part of his being.. It’s really a shame that people are so blinded by anger toward the political machine that they would even consider somebody of Trump’s caliber to be found acceptable as President of the United States.
    Oh, for the benefit of any readers out there who haven’t read my previous comments concerning Donald J. Trump…I’ll reiterate ..Trump is a big bag of shit, believe me!

  4. After reading Mother Jones’ article on Trumps model agency, I believe he engages in human trafficking. He should be in jail. He is a very poor excuse for a human being. If he becomes President, the entire U.S. Treasury will be put in his pockets. I feel sorry for the people who cannot see him for the scumbag he is.

  5. I try to remember that Saul Alinsky liked her. Really liked her. Praying she rediscovers the self that Alinksy loved. . . .

  6. I read that article in the Times and it just seemed like one, long, concern troll piece. The article clearly intimates that the few millennial African American voters the reporter spoke to were surprised to hear about the Mothers of the Movement appearing at the Dem convention and Hillary’s support for criminal justice reform. It was a classic pushing-a-narrative story, in that you can always find less informed people with doubts about any subject, and generalize from there.

    The above being said, I do agree that Hillary’s gone a bit silent lately and it’s time to step up the campaign and reach out to voters, especially millennials. Planning to run out the clock, or letting Trump dominate the conversation, is a losers bet.

    The above being said

  7. “But she’s still a terrible candidate.”

    Hillary seems to be running like Kerry did in ’04, assuming the electorate won’t be impacted by lies and craziness and media “both sides” false equivalency obsession, and the opposing camp will ultimately beat themselves to death. That was a mistake then, its a mistake now. Sure, I doubt Trump wins even if Clinton continues on the current path, but it could be the difference between a comfortable margin of victory or an election night nail biter.

    I just imagine what a capable campaigner could do in this election given the gift of Trump as an opponent.

    Even if this election is “in the bag,” why campaign like that?

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