Les atrocités du jour, or Why the Memo May Stay Undisclosed

Nunes Memo, Trump Maladministration

So Republicans on the House Judiciary Committee voted to release the Nunes memo but quashed release of the Democratic memo that provides context showing that the Nunes memo is a crock. Typical. The ball has been punted to Trump, who has five days to decide whether he wants it released, or not.

Why wouldn’t he release it? Well, for one thing, according to people who know this stuff, there’s no way the FISA court would have approved an extension of the warrant on Carter Page if the original surveillance hadn’t turned up some compelling evidence. According to this very good backgrounder that I recommend, FISA warrants are good for 90 days, and if the original surveillance comes up dry, that’s it. And the backgrounder says that, given the time frame, the extension approved by Rosenstein would not have been the first, but (at least) the second extension.

It’s also the case that FISA warrants go through a stringent approval process that includes a boatload of lawyers before they are given to a judge, according to the backgrounder. Rosenstein would not have had sole discretion of approving it.

My bet is that Trump’s lawyers are going to tell him to keep the damn memo in a lead-lined box in hopes it doesn’t see the light of day.  However, the Judiciary Committee could release it, anyway, without his approval.

Indeed, Newsweek is reporting that The Memo admits Carter Page might have been a Russian agent. If he were a Russian agent while a member of the Trump campaign, that’s kind of not helpful to Trump’s claim of no collusion between his campaign and Russia, is it? Especially during the same week Trump is refusing to implement sanctions on Russia that passed Congress by an overwhelming majority vote.

Wait, what? Oh, yes, and as usual the excuses make no sense. See Aaron Blake at WaPo:

So to recap, the head of America’s foreign intelligence agency says Russia will attempt to do what it did in the 2016 election again in 2018 and that he hasn’t “seen a significant decrease in their activity.” But then the State Department announces that it doesn’t need to impose the sanctions that were meant to punish that behavior because the legislation is already serving as a deterrent? Pompeo seems to be saying the legislation hasn’t deterred Russia from trying to meddle in U.S. elections again — at least not to a “significant” degree.

For all of Trump’s talk about building an alliance with Russia as president, his administration has taken some tough positions. But his reluctance to sign these sanctions into law was crystal clear — he even called them “seriously flawed” but signed them knowing Congress could easily override his veto — and his continued doubts about Russian meddling in the 2016 election can’t help but make this decision seem convenient. And his administration’s contrasting narratives on the purpose and effectiveness of these sanctions could use some explaining. Otherwise, it risks looking as if it’s just ignoring Congress’s will.

Also, too:

The Guardian is reporting that the FBI has another dossier created by a former journalist named Cody Shearer. Shearer worked independently from Christopher Steele but allegedly turned up a lot of the same information. However, Shearer appears to be kind of a sketchy character, so this may not be much of a help to anybody.

Marcy Wheeler speculates that the Steele Dossier itself may actually have hurt Dems and helped Trump in 2016.

Here’s more background on how Andrew McCabe was pushed into stepping down.

See also Paul Waldman, “Trump’s Slow-Motion Massacre at the Justice Department.”

And no, I’m not going to watch the SOTU. I don’t have the strength.

Update: See Josh Marshall, “The Hidden F-U in the White House Russia Sanctions Response.

You’ve likely seen the reports that the Trump administration violated the spirit though probably not the letter of the new Russia sanctions law by simply deciding not to impose any sanctions. But the law also mandated that the administration produce a list of “senior political figures and oligarchs” in Russia. These individuals were not to be sanctioned themselves. But the list is meant to impose some stigma and, more importantly, serve as an implicit signal about which individuals might be sanctioned in the future.

The administration put out that list along with news it wasn’t going to impose sanctions. But many noted that it seemed almost identical to a list of oligarchs published in 2017 by Forbes. The most amazing thing is that when Buzzfeed asked the Treasury whether there was any truth to this, they said, candidly enough, yes. That’s where we got it.

Marshall points out that the law actually mandated a list of known Putin cronies. What the White House released was a list of Russians with the highest net worth, which included some dissidents.

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10 Comments

10 Comments

  1. c u n d gulag  •  Jan 30, 2018 @2:23 pm

    I still think tRUMP will order Nunes' propaganda piece to be disclosed.

    But it will be redacted to the point where only sentence fragments that criticise Hillary, the Dems, and other of tRUMP's perceived enemies, will be readable.  And after that comes out, tRUMP will boast about how he protected the  country by the redaction, while still proving how dastardly his enemies are.

    And like maha, I'm NOT watching the SotU address.

    I bought a new HDTV when moving into the assisted living facility I'm in (temporarilly, I pray, FSM), and don't want to destroy it.  Thankfully, I've seen no stray bricks about.

    Besides, I know the state of our union:

    We're a lawless mental asylum, under Russian mismanagement, with Republican attendants to help them.

     

     

     

     

  2. csm  •  Jan 30, 2018 @2:48 pm

    The memo loses most of its power once it is released, which is why it may not be, at least not in its entirety.  To that end, I read this morning that they are considering releasing only portions of it.

    It'll be interesting to see how the republicans respond to Trump defying Congress will on sanctions.  My bet is they'll do nothing as long as Trump can give them a plausible out. 

    But the landscape has certainly changed since the time they voted on sanctions.  Back then "Russia" still had the ability to get their backs up.  Today they are devoid of any semblance of spine, and the party is all in on Trump, which essentially means all in on Putin.  And there's no stomach for biting the hand that's been feeding them especially since many of them are likely as guilty as Trump is on accepting Russian help in 2016.  And they desperately need them in 2018 if they are going to have a chance at retaining the House.

  3. Ten Bears  •  Jan 30, 2018 @3:09 pm

    Not only will I boycott it, I will be watching Planet Earth I & II, again.

  4. Bonnie  •  Jan 30, 2018 @4:55 pm

    I will be watching some British mysteries I have on DVD.  Much better usage of my time.  I hope the SOTU gets really low ratings, which will really bug the liar-in-chief.  He'll probably send Sarah what's her name out to tell everyone it was the most watched SOTU in the world ever.

  5. Dickeylee  •  Jan 30, 2018 @11:04 pm

    I'm watching, but I've got a strong stomach. Red meat red meat galore. MS-13!! 

    And drug dealers too

  6. csm  •  Jan 30, 2018 @11:18 pm

    Hey Bonnie, if you're into British mysteries of the film-noir, forties and fifties variety, like me, here's a good one:

    The Vicious Circle

    http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0052695/?ref_=nv_sr_3

    Here’s another:

    The October Man
    http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0039676/plotsummary?ref_=tt_ov_pl

     

     

     

  7. Tom Elliot  •  Jan 31, 2018 @12:18 am

    Excellent as always Barbara.  I wanted to suggest a good blog to you written by my friend Ann Anderson.  She's brilliant and I think you two would mesh well, similar approaches to presenting your thoughts and you both have very fully formed and well thought out opinions.  Worth reading.

    http://strigiforms.com/blog/

  8. priscianus jr  •  Jan 31, 2018 @7:06 pm

    "If [Carter Page] were a Russian agent while a member of the Trump campaign, that’s kind of not helpful to Trump’s claim of no collusion between his campaign and Russia, is it?”

    Don't drink the KoolAid, Maha. All this shows is that the DOJ and the FBI were conducting a McCarthyist witch hunt against Carter Page by branding him a Russian agent.

  9. maha  •  Jan 31, 2018 @9:56 pm

    priscianus jr — I’d say you’re the one who drank the KoolAid. That’s absurd.

  10. priscianus jr  •  Feb 1, 2018 @12:02 am

    Of course it's absurd, Maha. Absurdity is one of my favorite forms of humor. You should know me better by now. LOL.