Huckabee wins decisively. The screams of despair you hear are coming from “movement conservatives,” neocons and the drown-gubmint-in-the-bathtub, Club for Growth, tax-cuts-uber-alles crowd.
The bobbleheads are saying the New Hampshire GOP primary will be between McCain and Huckabee. Romney is in big trouble. The Giuliani campaign seems to be dead in the water, although there’s still a glimmer of a possibility he could come back.
As I keyboard it’s clear Barack Obama has won the Dem Caucus. Hillary Clinton and John Edwards are in a virtual tie for second, but Edwards is staying a dozen votes ahead. Will this (dare I hope?) put the myth of the Inevitable Hillary to rest?
There will be tons of analysis tomorrow. My initial take is that the unprecedented turnout of younger and first-time caucus goers tonight ought to be taken very seriously by both parties. Hillary Clinton’s “experience” is with delivering cautious little mini-tweaks of Republican policies. Also, the economic populist message sold very well in Iowa, especially considering that Huckabee’s campaign leaned more in that direction than did the other GOP candiates’.
There are indications that Chris Dodd will drop out of the race tomorrow, which would be sad, because in many ways I think he’s the best guy running. Other than that, however, I’m happy.
Also: My technical problems are not completely resolved. I hope the site doesn’t go down again, but for the time being I have to keep comment moderation turned on because I’m getting comment spam by the hundreds per hour, and if I activate the spam filter I’m afraid the site will go down again. I don’t know why that would be so, but I don’t want to take any chances.
Update: I like this quote, from shamanic:
With Huckabee and Obama apparently winning the Iowa Caucus, I can’t help but think I’m seeing the Democratic Party be reborn into the party of America, and watching the GOP fade to become the party of home schoolers.