Polls and Divination

Polls are saying that Senator Clinton is getting a late surge in voter support (with the help of Rush?) and could win the popular vote in Texas, although probably not the majority of delegates. She’s already favored to win Ohio and Rhode Island. If this turns out to be true, expect a long, nasty fight for the nomination that will damage both Dem candidates.

Contrary indicators: Just before the New Hampshire primary the pollsters said all the trends were moving toward Obama, which turned out not to be true. And the I Ching, which has been stubbornly ambivalent about the candidates for weeks, is now leaning a bit to Obama. My reading of the I Ching is that he’ll do Better Than Expected. However, both candidates will have cause for worry and regret and may be bitten by tigers. See also Michael Tomasky, “The Yeldarb effect.”

Whatever happens, I’m going to be on (workplace alert: don’t click unless your sound is on mute) Blog Talk Radio tomorrow from 1 to 2 pm eastern time, chatting about What It All Means. I’ll be out tonight until after 10 o’clock, but I’ll probably post something when I get home.

In the meantime, here’s some fun stuff to read:

H. D. S. Greenway, “Dancing on the Piano

E.J. Dionne, “The Battle That Clinton Didn’t Expect

And channeling Dylan Thomas:

HTML Mencken, “Rage, Rage Against The Undying of the Right

Jonathan Chait, “The Clinton Campaign’s Dying Light

Update: More —

RJ Eskow, “Comedians and Voters: Don’t Let The Press Bias Toward Hillary Throw You

Nina Darnton, “Picking a President: A Feminist’s Right to Choose

Michael Seitzman, “The Clinton Crystal Ball: What About Day Two?

8 thoughts on “Polls and Divination

  1. I just found an acquaintance of mine switched his ticket to Democrat so he could vote for Hillary. I think this may happen a lot to try to help place him against Mccain. Obama’s talk of change makes some people here nervous. (I’m in Dayton btw)

  2. Seems like Hillary has been very good about setting expectations for this one. If you’ll remember, the reason why Texas and Ohio were supposed to be “firewalls” in the first place is because they were very large states where Clinton was leading by huge margins, so no matter what happened in the 10 states between Super Tuesday zand today, she would make up the losses in these two states … catch up with or even pass Obama in delegate count.

    Now, it seems like she’s likely to actually lose in Texas, and most of the polling I’ve seen for Ohio has them neck and neck, to within the margin of error. Whether she wins or loses, it now seems impossible for her to actually gain significant ground, delegate-wise … the percentages are going to be close, so the delegates will be mostly divided equally.

    By any objective measure, it seems like whether she wins or loses today is irrelevant … the fact that it’s going to be so close makes it a huge loss for her, one that she probably won’t be able to recover from. There simply aren’t enough delegates left on the table to compensate, at this point.

    And yet ……. the narrative seems to be that if she manages to squeak out a win in both states, these two states that she used to have such huge leads in, these two states she was counting on to gain lots of delegates from …… it’ll be a huge victory, and she’ll keep on fighting the good fight, so to speak.



  3. Before the the results are in I want to go on record as saying Obama will win in both Texas and Ohio. Maybe I ‘ll have to eat some crow for being a misinformed jerk, but I’m willing to do that to express my hope and perceptions.

  4. McCain doesn’t have teeth.

    Literally or figuratively?… I know John Adams was irked by references in the press to his not having teeth, but that was literal. “Toothless old Adams” they would call him. When you get to be McCain’s age dentures are not uncommon. I’m wondering whether McCain’s social security checks will be direct deposited or mailed to the White House if he should become president.

  5. As I watch the election unfold, I get the feeling we are looking at the Nixon – Kennedy election again. I was too young to appreciate the history of the moment, though I do recall that the Cuban Missle Crisis was the first time I ever saw my parents afraid.

    Kennedy opted for an embargo, resisting the advice of the Joint Chiefs who thought we could survive a first strike capability the USSR had from Cuba. They wanted to exercise military action against Cuba. (Later Kennedy would use the FBI to disarm a CIA invasion he refused to authorize.)

    Suppose Nixon had won. Would much of the Eastern Seaboard still glow in the dark?

    Suppose it was Clinton at that ‘red phone’ moment. Would she have resisted the advice of the Joint Chiefs? My ‘read’ of her personality is that she’s afraid to appear weak because she is female; ergo the authorization for the war in Iraq.

    Suppose it was Obama? Is he a JFK kinda guy? He did go against the popular tide by opposing the war in Iraq. (which I supported at the time)

    One other thought along the Kennedy/Nixon theme – The debates between Nixon and Kennedy were the first ever televised; it showed a young JFK with hope against, well, Nixon. The contrast worked well for Democrats in the election. Clinton is 60, and the contrast Clinton/McCain is not so clear; the Clintons are now establishment, and McCain will try to portray himself as an independent.

  6. When you get to be McCain’s age dentures are not uncommon.

    It’s his freakish chipmunk cheeks that I worry about. What’s he hiding in there?

Comments are closed.