Last week, David Atkins predicted that anti-abortion fanatics will drag the U.S. into a “cold civil war.”

Republican legislators fully intend to criminalize abortion. They fully intend to jail women as murderers for taking control of their own bodies, to prosecute them for leaving the state for medical aid, to punish any doctor who attempts to help with a lifetime in jail. They really mean to do it—damn the torpedoes and full speed ahead.

But unlike any issue since slavery and Jim Crow, morally decent Americans in blue states will not stand by and idly watch as their fellow American women are dragged before theocratic tribunals and sentenced to life in prison for exercising the basic rights and freedoms that have become standard practice across the western world. They will not keep calm as thugs attempt to drag women refugees back across state lines for the crime of seeking a better life, free from their abusive partners, and endure the forced births of unwanted pregnancies. Like no other issue in American politics, decent citizens will demand aggressive action to defend the downtrodden and abused victims of patriarchal theocracy.

I think it’s as likely as not that the draconian abortion laws being passed in Alabama and other red states will be struck down by federal courts, and if the Supreme Court takes the cases Chief Justice Roberts will vote with justices Breyer, Ginsburg, Kagan, and Sotomayor to keep them struck down. Roberts may not like abortion, but I believe he has enough sense to know what’s good for the Repubican party. However, this may be wishful thinking on my part.

There is a school of thought out there that these state legislatures want the SCOTUS to kill their abortion laws. Deep down, the thinking goes, they must realize there will be a nasty backlash if women and doctors are really imprisoned for abortions. Politicians want to be able to wave their anti-abortion bona fides in front of their hard-right constituents and then blame the courts for nor turning their states into real-world Handmaid’s Tales. They don’t want to be the dog that catches the car.

Maybe, but I’m inclined to agree with Scott Lemieux at Vox, who argues that the partisans on the Right who keep pushing to overturn Roe are not thinking strategically. They really just want to overturn Roe so they can ban abortions. Scott Lemieux also doubts Roberts will save abortion rights when it comes to a SCOTUS vote. Other commenters believe the Court is more likely to allow Roe to be chipped away gradually rather than reversed all at once. 

Why? It’s beyond obvious that red states’ attempts to chip away at abortion rights have nothing to do with “protecting” women. Considering that Alabama has one of the highest infant mortality rates in the U.S., and the Alabama legilsature appears to be doing nothing about that, one assumes they don’t give much of a hoo-haw about children, either. See Michael Hiltzik, States with the worst anti-abortion laws also have the worst infant mortality rates.

Alabama is one of two states, with Georgia, that enacted new abortion restrictions over the last week. Their records on maternal and infant health are shameful. Alabama is tied for fourth-worst place in infant mortality, with a rate of 7.4 deaths per 1,000 live births. Georgia, with a rate of 7.2, is tied for seventh-worst.

“In a state that has some of the worst health outcomes for women in the nation—such as the highest rate of cervical cancer — Alabama is putting women’s lives at an even greater risk,” said Leana Wen, president of the Planned Parenthood Action Fund.

Of the 12 states ranked highest in infant mortality rates, all with rates of 7.0 or higher, 11 are described by the abortion rights organization NARAL as imposing “severely restricted access” on abortions. The one exception, West Virginia, is listed as having “restricted access,” a notch better. But NARAL reports that 90% of women in the state live in counties without a single abortion clinic.

The biggest reason for this appears to be that state legislatures that spend all their time thinking up ways to restrict access to abortion tend to be the same states that didn’t expand Medicaid and which are stingiest at providing access to health care for women and children. They piously claim to be “saving babies,” but only until they are born.

And what about protecting women? Paul Waldman:

The anti-abortion activists who push these bills and the legislators who write them always say that they aren’t interested in punishing women for having abortions; I’m reminded of the time in 2016 when the recently pro-life Donald Trump said “there has to be some form of punishment” for women who have abortions and was then quickly silenced by Republicans whispering “ixnay on the unishment-pay!” out of the corners of their mouths, since this is a truth you’re not supposed to mention.

But the Georgia bill quite purposely didn’t include any language saying women couldn’t be prosecuted.

That brings us to Alabama, where on Thursday the all-white-male Republican contingent in the state senate tried to sneak through an amendment to their own even more radical bill, which would outlaw all abortions, heartbeat or no, and make abortion a felony punishable by 99 years in prison.

 

My gut-level take is that at the core of right-wing men is a deep fear and loathing of women’s sexuality. The gives them a means to act out those feelings by punishing women for being sexual.  The cruelty is the point. It’s not going too far, I don’t think, to call anti-abortion activism a form of vicarious rape. And yes, women get sucked into this same sickness. There may be some self-loathing involved, and I also think a lot of women are too conditioned to find their own self-worth in male approval, so they take part in their own subjugation. And there’s the religious element also.

As much suffering as it would cause, it may be that we won’t be done with the anti-aabortion fanatics until we let them have what they want, and they suffer the backlash. It took Prohibition to kill the Temperance Movement, for example. And you know that if the fanatics get what they say they want — the right to ban abortions within a state — they will not be content with that. As long as abortion is legal in some states they will agitate for a national ban. Because, deep down, they really are fanatical about banning abortion in the U.S. No matter what.

Sometimes when I don’t write it’s because I’m so overwhelmed by so much going on I can’t settle on one topic. Right now we’ve got Crazy John Bolton trying to get us into war in Iraq Iran, the Attorney General of the United States undermining the Constituion and national security; Miz Lindsey Graham is undermining the authority of the Senate; the POTUS is a festering cesspool of resentment and ignorance. But now the state of Alabama just passed a ban on all abortions except to save a woman’s life. So the 11-year-old rape victim will just have to have the baby.

I’ll write more about this tomorrow.

You might have heard that stocks were in free fall for a time this morning and that the markets closed much lower than last week on news of escalation of the trade war with China. But even earlier, the Creature demonstrated he doesn’t understand how any of this works …

There is no reason for the U.S. Consumer to pay the Tariffs, which take effect on China today. This has been proven recently when only 4 points were paid by the U.S., 21 points by China because China subsidizes product to such a large degree. Also, the Tariffs can be…..

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 13, 2019

…completely avoided if you buy from a non-Tariffed Country, or you buy the product inside the USA (the best idea). That’s Zero Tariffs. Many Tariffed companies will be leaving China for Vietnam and other such countries in Asia. That’s why China wants to make a deal so badly!…

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 13, 2019

…completely avoided if you buy from a non-Tariffed Country, or you buy the product inside the USA (the best idea). That’s Zero Tariffs. Many Tariffed companies will be leaving China for Vietnam and other such countries in Asia. That’s why China wants to make a deal so badly!…

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 13, 2019

Yeah, China is cowering in terror of the Mighty Trump and wants nothing more than to make a deal —

Following up the last post — Reuters is reporting that Joe Biden is working out his climate change plan. It involves the words “middle ground.”

Democratic presidential hopeful Joe Biden is crafting a climate change policy he hopes will appeal to both environmentalists and the blue-collar voters who elected Donald Trump, according to two sources, carving out a middle ground approach that will likely face heavy resistance from green activists.

In other words, Biden is crafting his policy around political appeal. Paul Waldman:

It’s probably too early to criticize this vague set of ideas until we see exactly what it entails. But there’s already cause for concern: the people who have been authorized to speak to the press about this are framing it explicitly as something Biden “hopes will appeal to both environmentalists and the blue-collar voters who elected Donald Trump.”

We’re not naive here. Of course candidates are going to consider how the policies they propose will be received by voters. But can you at least pretend that you first decided what the best policy would be, and only afterward set about determining the most effective way to sell it to the electorate?

Biden’s people are just coming out and saying that he has an existing election strategy — hold Democratic voters and poach conservative blue-collar white voters from Trump — and they’re fashioning his climate plan so it slots into that strategy.

First, Dems, you aren’t going to “poach” voters from Trump. Any voter who isn’t already disgusted with Trump isn’t poachable. Forget those votes. But take heart; a substantial majority of respondents in a recent poll said they won’t vote for Trump. The challenge, then, is not to poach voters from Trump but to, first, rally the base. Including the lefty-progressive base. Second, persuade disaffected voters who already don’t like Trump that it’s worth getting to the polls to vote for you. Please stop with the safe wishy-washiness that makes people wonder why they bother to vote.

Waldman writes, “it’s pretty clear that Biden suffers from a common Democratic malady, one that produces a constant fear that taking policy positions they perceive to be too liberal will produce electoral disaster.” Yeah, that’s my impression of him, too.

Back to Reuters:

The backbone of the policy will likely include re-joining the United States with the Paris Climate Agreement and preserving U.S. regulations on emissions and vehicle fuel efficiency that Trump has sought to undo, according to one of the sources, Heather Zichal, who is part of a team advising Biden on climate change. She previously advised President Barack Obama.

The second source, a former energy department official also advising Biden’s campaign who asked not to be named, said the policy could also be supportive of nuclear energy and fossil fuel options like natural gas and carbon capture technology, which limit emissions from coal plants and other industrial facilities.

A site called Sludge with which I am not familiar says that the above-mentioned Heather Zichal was once on the board of a Texas-based liquified natural gas company. That doesn’t necessarily make her a bad person, but it doesn’t look good.

Bernie Sanders has already pounced.

There is no “middle ground” when it comes to climate policy. If we don’t commit to fully transforming our energy system away from fossil fuels, we will doom future generations. Fighting climate change must be our priority, whether fossil fuel billionaires like it or not.

— Bernie Sanders (@BernieSanders) May 10, 2019

And see Naomi Klein —

No Joe, there is no “middle ground” on climate breakdown – there is bold, transformative action or there is sinking ground, burning ground and churning ground. “Presidential hopeful Biden looking for ‘middle ground’ climate policy” https://t.co/8q2WPzU7w0

— Naomi Klein (@NaomiAKlein) May 10, 2019

That was my reaction to the “middle ground” headline before I’d read the article. And it’s still my reaction, although if actual climate scientists say Biden’s plan is reasonable, I will listent to them. I am skeptical, though.

Science is telling us we have little time left to us to avoid catastrophic environmental collapse, with equally catastrophic loss of life. So as we consider who to support for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020, it’s essential we choose a candidate who is ready to do whatever it takes, even at political risk, to save our planet.

It has to be said that any of the Democratic candidates is far and away better on the issue of climate than Donald Trump. All of them say climate change is real. I believe all of them are on the record saying they want to return to the Paris climate agreement. The question is, are they better enough to pursue policies that might head off unprecedented global disaster? Or will they settle for ineffectual tweaks?

Here are the declared candiates, in alphabetial order (and yeah, I hadn’t heard of some of these people, either), with a brief description of their commitment to fighting climate change.

An *asterisk indicates the candidate has formally pledged to not take money from the fossil fuel industry. And while I do not believe the Green New Deal is necessarily the only way to go, those candidates who do not endorse it had better have a strong alternative plan, or they go on the “no” list.

Executive summary: My possibly biased conclusion is that the best candidates on climate change are Buttigieg, Gillibrand, Inslee, O’Rourke, and Sanders. Booker, Gabbard, Harris, Warren, and Yang get honorable mention. Any of those candidates can be trusted to address the issue aggressively, I believe. They differ somewhat in their proposed approaches.

The weakest are Delaney, Hickenlooper,. and Ryan, with Klobuchar getting a “meh.” For the other candidates, I need more information than I could find, which says something in itself.

Sen. Michael Bennet: Bennet has declared climate change to be one of his top issues. Acccording to Axios, “Bennet has been consistent on the issue of climate change, working toward a comprehensive approach to combat climate change. He was not a co-sponsor of the Green New Deal, but he recommends investing in renewable energy.” He may be okay, but he’s weak on details.

Former Vice President Joe Biden: He hasn’t been saying much about climate change in his campaign, but then his whole campaign is weak on policy details. Vox: “Biden’s commitment to the climate change issue can’t really be doubted — he introduced Congress’s first-ever climate bill way back in 1986 — and likens climate skepticism to ‘denying gravity.’ But he hasn’t really weighed in in a distinctive way on the subject.”

Sen. Cory Booker: Booker says “envionmental justice” is central to his campaign, although this is not necessarily the same thing as fighting climate change. He is a staunch supporter and defender of the Green New Deal proposal. He has not signed a pledge to not take money from the fossil fuel industry, however, even though that sector doesn’t seem to be a major source of funds for him, according to Open Secrets.

*South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg: Buttigieg insists climate change is not just an issue, but a crisis. All signs indicate he gets the seriousness of the problem.

As a presidential candidate, Buttigieg has called for billions’ worth of investment in research and development to lower the cost of solar and other renewable technologies. He also wants every American home to be a “net zero” energy consumer, with each roof lined with solar panels. “Uncle Sam is gonna mail you a kit,” he told Yahoo News (that’s assuming he manages to get elected).

He has signed a pledge to take no contributions from the fossil fuel industry and supports the Green New Deal.

Ex-San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro: He has sworn to rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement and supports the Green New Deal. Also,

While he was the mayor of San Antonio, Castro pushed the city’s public utility to close a 900-megawatt coal-powered plant, adopt a 20 percent renewable energy by 2020 pledge, and offer green jobs training. The city also launched a small car-sharing program and a bike-share system aimed at making transportation greener under his leadership.

However, as mayor, he pushed to allow fracking around San Antonio.

Rep. John Delaney: Delaney’s proposals include instituting a carbon tax, re-joining the Paris Agreement, and investing federal dollars in green technology. However, he has slammed the Green New Deal as a “far left” program.

*Rep. Tulsi Gabbard: Gabbard declined to back the Green New Deal, citing concerns that it is too vague. Well, yes, it is vague; comprehensive programs will need to be spelled out within the Green New Deal framework. Nobody is saying otherwise. On the other hand,Gabbard introduced a bill to transition the U.S. away from all fossil fuel use by 2035. I have no feel for how feasible Gabbard’s plan is, but it would be a grand thing to try.

*Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand: Gillibrand supports the Green New Deal.

Climate change is an immediate and catastrophic threat to our future. And yes, it’s real.

We need to:
?Get to net-zero carbon emissions
?Invest in clean energy and green jobs
?Update infrastructure and build community resiliency

We need a #GreenNewDeal, and we need it now. https://t.co/viCTQMix9b

— Kirsten Gillibrand (@SenGillibrand) January 24, 2019

There is no question she does have a strong record supporting environmental issues and an aggressive vision for fighting climate change.

Former Sen. Mike Gravel: Seriously, Mike Gravel is running again. You can read about him here. I hope he makes some more videos. What I can find about his intentions on climate change sounds as if he appreciates the seriousness of the problem.

Sen. Kamala Harris: Environmental activist groups love Harris’s voting record, and she was a co-sponsor of the Green New Deal. Beyond that, I’m not finding details about what she proposes.

Former Gov. John Hickenlooper: Hickenlooper is one of those “I will reach across the aisle” types who belongs in another century. He opposes the Green New Deal and wants private industry to play a larger role in fighting climate change. He has not signed the “no fossile fuel money” pledge.

*Gov. Jay Inslee: Inslee has put fighting climate change at the front of his campaign and has a lot of proposals to deal with it. Supports Green New Deal? Check. Signed “no fossil fuel money” pledge? Check. Here’s an article about his climate change proposals. There’s no question Inslee is a strong candidate on the climate change issue. Note:

Only O’Rourke and Inslee’s climate plans so far address the overall question of how to stop U.S. carbon emissions. Each proposal focuses on a duel purpose of moving the country off fossil fuels and investing in green jobs to grow the economy.

Inslee’s plan is similar to the Green New Deal in that it aims to completely transition to clean energy by 2030. But the governor also leaves open the door to using nuclear power, an energy sector to which some environmental groups are staunchly opposed.

Sen. Amy Klobuchar: Klobuchar gets credit for arguing that Democrats should be running on addressing climate change, especially in farm country. Rural America is dealing with fires, floods, droughts, and unseasonal temperatures both high and low. She calls the Green New Deal “aspirational” and says she would vote for it. The “aspirational” comment angered some activists, but I can’t say she’s wrong. But then she said “I don’t see it as something that we can get rid of all these industries or do this in a few years — that doesn’t make sense to me — or reduce air travel.” This makes her seem a bit squishy to me.

*Miramar, Fla., Mayor Wayne Messam: Mayor Messam is no doubt a fine man, but I am not finding a lot of information about him. Here is where he stands on several issues.

*Rep. Seth Moulton: Moulton, whose primary focus is national security, has said that he supports the Green New Deal. But in an Atlantic interview he took a swing at the Green New Deal and called it “divisive.”

“Candidates are running on a message of division, just like Trump did. It’s not as bad. It’s not as immoral. But I hear divisiveness in a lot of the other campaigns,” he said. To him, that includes the Green New Deal—he supports an aggressive approach to climate change, but he thinks a collection of estimates and aspirations only hurts the cause. Moulton said he’s working on a version of his own, drawn more deeply from conversations with experts.

“I think we want to be careful that we don’t become hypocrites and start ignoring science, just like the right has been doing,” he said.

No specifics on why he thinks the Green New Deal ignores science. To his credit, Moulton has signed the “no fossil fuels money” pledge.

*Former Rep. Beto O’Rourke: O’Rourke has signed the “no fossil fuels money” pledge but has proposed an alternative to the Green New Deal. The ambitious $5 trillion climate change proposal is aggressive and detailed and aims for net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. As usual, implementation of the plan would require Democrats holding both houses of Congress. See also Nearly two dozen Democrats want to be president. Only two have a climate change plan. The two, the article says, are Inslee and O’Rourke.

Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan: Ryan has not signed the “no fossil fuels money” pledge, and this quote from an interview is not encouraging:

“We need a Green New Deal,” Ryan said. His version would include using the tax code to “incentivize investments” into renewable energies and green technologies, and into “distressed communities.” It would also include an emphasis on making sure we have enough college graduates in science, technology, engineering and mathematics to “help us continue to build out the innovations we need to decarbonize the economy.”

That would have been great 20 years ago. Now it’s too little, too late.

*Sen. Bernie Sanders: Sanders also checks all the right boxes on the climate change issue. He gets it. He has folded combating climate change into his economic justice message: “We’re going to create millions of good-paying jobs weatherizing our homes, changing our transportation system, moving aggressively into wind and solar and other sustainable energies,” Sanders said. In In 2015, he unveiled a plan to cut US carbon emissions 80% by 2050. He has been criticized for not unveiling a comprehensive plan during this campaign, however.

*California Rep. Eric Swalwell: Swalwell has a pro-environment voting record and says he supports the “principles” of the Green New Deal. He does seem to get the urgency of the crisis, but I’m not finding policy details.

*Sen. Elizabeth Warren Warren has proposed banning new coalmining and oil drilling on public lands, which could cut US emissions but fall short of what scientists say is  needed. Her recent floor speech on climate change suggests she gets the scope of the problem. She has promised to make the Green New Deal the centerpiece of her environmenal policy. So far she has not brought out a detailed climate change proposal of her own, but I’d be surprised if she doesn’t before this year is over.

*Author Marianne Williamson: I don’t consider her to be a serious contender, but she has signed the no fossil fuel money pledge and has some proposals on her website. So credit where credit is due.

*Former tech executive Andrew Yang: Yang has some interesting proposals on his website, such as “Invest heavily in carbon capture and geoengineering technologies designed to reverse the damage already done to the environment through a new Global Geoengineering Institute and invite international participation.” I can’t say I’ve heard that one anywhere else. I’d like to hear more discussion of how his proposals might work.

This morning I gave myself the task of writing something about where all the Dem presidential candidates stand on climate change. Did you know there are 22 declared and official candidates now? They seem to be multiplying, like wire hangers in the closet or those random USB cords and device chargers that get tangled up in your desk drawer. Anyway, I worked diligently most of the day and only got about half finished, so I’ll try to finish tomorrow. Meanwhile —

The New York Times — Decade in the Red: Trump Tax Figures
Show Over $1 Billion in Business Losses

The data — printouts from Mr. Trump’s official Internal Revenue Service tax transcripts, with the figures from his federal tax form, the 1040, for the years 1985 to 1994 — represents the fullest and most detailed look to date at the president’s taxes, information he has kept from public view. Though the information does not cover the tax years at the center of an escalating battle between the Trump administration and Congress, it traces the most tumultuous chapter in a long business career — an era of fevered acquisition and spectacular collapse.

The numbers show that in 1985, Mr. Trump reported losses of $46.1 million from his core businesses — largely casinos, hotels and retail space in apartment buildings. They continued to lose money every year, totaling $1.17 billion in losses for the decade.

In fact, year after year, Mr. Trump appears to have lost more money than nearly any other individual American taxpayer, The Times found when it compared his results with detailed information the I.R.S. compiles on an annual sampling of high-income earners. His core business losses in 1990 and 1991 — more than $250 million each year — were more than double those of the nearest taxpayers in the I.R.S. information for those years.

 

The most tremendous loss of money in history, I’m sure. Our Trump doesn’t screw up by halves; he goes all the way.

WaPo: The White House on Tuesday invoked executive privilege to bar former White House counsel Donald McGahn from complying with a congressional subpoena to provide documents to Congress related to special counsel Robert S. Mueller III’s investigation. McGahn has agreed to not hand over the documents. House Judiciary Chair Jerrold Nadler has threatened McGahn with contempt.  See also Martin Longman, “Does Don McGahn Have to Comply With Congressional Subpoenas?”

Meanwhile, the Speaker of the House actually said the I-word. “Trump is goading us to impeach him.”

Reuters is reporting that Michael Cohen says that before the 2016 primaries he “handled” some embarassing photos for — wait for it — Jerry Falwell, Jr.  After said handling, Falwell endorsed Trump for president. heh.

Another school shooting. One student reported dead.

See also An Internal Memo Raises New Questions About Self-Dealing at the N.R.A.

While we’re ringing our hands about the future of the nation, let’s not forget the future of the planet. See Eric Levitz, Humanity Is About to Kill 1 Million Species in a Globe-Spanning Murder-Suicide.

Humanity is reshaping the natural world at such scale and rapidity, an estimated 1 million plant and animal species are now at risk of extinction, according to the U.N. assessment. Climate change is a major driver of all this death, but burning fossil fuels is far from our species’ only method of mass ecocide. We are also harvesting fish populations faster than they can reproduce themselves, annually dumping upward of 300 million tons of heavy metals and toxic sludge into the oceans, introducing devastating diseases and invasive species into vulnerable environments as we send people and goods hurtling across the globe, and simply taking up too much space — about 75 percent of the Earth’s land, and 85 percent of its wetlands, have been severely altered or destroyed by human development.

We need to be certain that the next president and a majority of Congress is prepared to do whatever it takes to save the planet. No more dithering; no more half measures.

For now, we’re still wringing more food out of the Earth than ever before. But we’re also exhausting the ecosystems on which that bounty depends — land degradation is sapping the agricultural productivity of nearly one-quarter of the Earth’s land mass. The mass death of pollinating insects is already jeopardizing $577 billion in annual crop production. The (now virtually inevitable) deaths of major coral reefs, combined with overfishing, will soon remove a major source of protein from the diets of billions.

See also Humans Are Speeding Extinction and Altering the Natural World at an ‘Unprecedented’ Pace in the New York Times.

The New York Times published this story four days ago, and I missed it — “Biden Faces Conflict of Interest Questions That Are Being Promoted by Trump and Allies.”

Here’s the backstory: Back when he was vice president, Joe Biden took on the job of pushing Ukraine to get rid of its notoriously corrupt prosecutor general. This prosecutor general was, by all accounts, a real sleazebag who was intensely disliked by everybody who had to deal with Ukraine. Nobody seems to think that this guy’s dismissal from his job was a bad thing.

However, Joe Biden’s son Hunter directly benefited from this dismissal, because Hunter Biden “at the time was on the board of an energy company owned by a Ukrainian oligarch who had been in the sights of the fired prosecutor general,” the article says.

Hunter Biden was a Yale-educated lawyer who had served on the boards of Amtrak and a number of nonprofit organizations and think tanks, but lacked any experience in Ukraine and just months earlier had been discharged from the Navy Reserve after testing positive for cocaine. He would be paid as much as $50,000 per month in some months for his work for the company, Burisma Holdings.

Nice work if you can get it without being the son of a vice president of the United States. This connection was known at the time and raised some concern in the State Department, but apparently not enough concern that anything was done about it. The prosecutor general was a genuinely bad guy and wasn’t pushed out just because of Hunter Biden.

This story is news today because Trump’s sending Rudy Giuliani to dredge up dirt about it. Josh Marshall writes,

Rudy Giuliani, the President’s personal lawyer has been meeting with Ukrainian officials repeatedly and dangling the possibility of better relations with President Trump if they will reopen the investigation into the Hunter Biden-affiliated company. Let’s repeat that. The President’s personal lawyer is going abroad and using the lure of better treatment from President Trump to get them to reopen an investigation that could damage the man who is possibly Trump’s presidential competitor next year.

That’s not all.

Giuliani and Trump have asked Attorney General Bill Barr to get the material Ukrainian prosecutors have assembled and start his own investigation in the US.

Mark my words: If Biden is the nominee, instead of Hillary Clinton’s emails we’ll be hearing about Hunter Biden and the Ukranian bank. Incessantly. Still think Biden’s so electable?

Let’s review.

Possible sketchy dealings from several years ago, long since settled legally and in the past. Giuliani starts meeting with Ukrainian officials who are for reasons we all understand desperate for favorable treatment from President Trump. He tells them that the way to get better treatment is to start an investigation into the Joe Biden’s son. Giuliani routinely briefs President Trump on his activities. They both go to Bill Barr and start pushing Barr to piggy back on the Ukrainian investigation and start his own probe in the US.

And you know Bill Barr will do it.  This is from the New York Times story:

The Trump team’s efforts to draw attention to the Bidens’ work in Ukraine, which is already yielding coverage in conservative media, has been led partly by Rudolph W. Giuliani, who served as a lawyer for Mr. Trump in the investigation by the special counsel, Robert S. Mueller III. Mr. Giuliani’s involvement raises questions about whether Mr. Trump is endorsing an effort to push a foreign government to proceed with a case that could hurt a political opponent at home.

Mr. Giuliani has discussed the Burisma investigation, and its intersection with the Bidens, with the ousted Ukrainian prosecutor general and the current prosecutor. He met with the current prosecutor multiple times in New York this year. The current prosecutor general later told associates that, during one of the meetings, Mr. Giuliani called Mr. Trump excitedly to brief him on his findings, according to people familiar with the conversations.

Mr. Giuliani declined to comment on any such phone call with Mr. Trump, but acknowledged that he has discussed the matter with the president on multiple occasions. Mr. Trump, in turn, recently suggested he would like Attorney General William P. Barr to look into the material gathered by the Ukrainian prosecutors — echoing repeated calls from Mr. Giuliani for the Justice Department to investigate the Bidens’ Ukrainian work and other connections between Ukraine and the United States.

Mr. Giuliani said he got involved because he was seeking to counter the Mueller investigation with evidence that Democrats conspired with sympathetic Ukrainians to help initiate what became the special counsel’s inquiry.

I don’t personally want the future of the planet and human civilization to turn on how much dirt somebody can find on Hunter Biden et al. I also feel compelled to point out that what Guiliani is doing might be described as collusion with foreign governments to change the outcome of an election.

Joe and Hunter Biden

As soon as Joe Biden declared his candidacy he was declared the front runner. And social media filled up with declarations that we all have to rally around Joe because he is “electable.” I suspect this is part of an attempt to create a bandwagon effect for good ol’ Joe, whom I like personally. But I sincerely hope he’s not the nominee.

Aaron Blake wrote,

Saying someone is a front-runner isn’t the same as saying they will win or even that they are currently the favorite. But the word means even less in 2020 than it does in your average presidential race. …

… The two leading candidates in most polls are Biden and Bernie Sanders. It’s no coincidence that they also happen to be the only two candidates pretty much everyone is at least somewhat familiar with. Gallup and Monmouth polling shows around 3 in 10 Democrats haven’t formed an opinion of Elizabeth Warren, about 4 in 10 don’t have one of Kamala Harris, and around half are similarly noncommittal or don’t know Cory Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand, Cory Booker, Beto O’Rourke and Pete Buttigieg. Biden is popular among the Democrats who have an opinion of him — 72 percent favorable and 16 percent unfavorable in the Monmouth poll — but he’s not appreciably more popular among those who know him than a lot of these other candidates.

Somewhat more damning is this analysis by Nathaniel Rakich at FiveThirtyEight. He found that perceptions of “electability” tend to correspond to “straight white male.” But this is more interesting:

Some candidates widely seen as electable don’t have as much support from voters, while others who have generated a lot of voter enthusiasm aren’t seen as particularly strong general-election candidates.

What does that tell us? When we decide who is “electable” we’re guessing who other people will want to vote for.  But what does it say when a voter really prefers candidate A but is cajoled into voting for candidate B because he or she is “more electable”? Based on what? And Rakich provides data showing that while a significant number of people polled think Joe Biden is “electable,” a smaller percentage say he’s their first choice.

And that’s how we end up with candidates many voters aren’t all that enthusiastic about. And we lose.

Dave Weigel:

In dozens of conversations during Biden’s maiden Iowa voyage, some voters said they had been pining for a Biden candidacy. They believed in his experience, and his decency, and his work as vice president.

Just as many voters said that they had come to support Biden because he seemed best positioned to defeat President Trump — sometimes offering the names of candidates they considered more inspiring but less electable. And several voters struggled to explain why, if he did defeat Trump, Biden would be able to succeed in his agenda where the Obama-Biden administration struggled. …

… More than any other contender for the Democratic nomination, Biden’s candidacy is premised on how he can win. No other Democrat comes close. The latest Quinnipiac national poll, which put Biden at 38 percentsupport among all Democrats, found just 23 percent of them saying Biden had “the best policy ideas.” But 56 percent said that Biden had “the best chance of winning,” a sentiment shared by every Biden endorser.

And here’s the kicker.

The tautology of the “electability” theory, that Biden is electable because people say he’s electable, is a big reason why his entry did not scare off many rival campaigns.

Weigel then goes on to a brief history of “electable” Democratic candidates, people who the polls said were “electable” but who went ahead and lost.

I understand why long-time  Democrats feel comfortable with Biden. He’s a likeable guy.  You know he won’t be sitting on his toilet at three a.m. sending stupid tweets. You know he’s not going to do anything really off-the-wall, like start a trade war with Canada. He reminds us of a time when we had a president who didn’t make us cringe with embarassment. But in an election cycle when the energy and enthusiasm is coming from younger, left-leaning voters, is Biden really more electable than everyone else running? How do we really know who is electable until they, you know, win the election?

Paul Waldman:

Every four years we have a discussion about electability, and every four years the consensus on electability is mistaken. A buffoonish, bigoted reality TV star without a day of political experience? Completely unelectable. A 40-something African American senator with an Arabic middle name? Absurdly unelectable.

You know who everyone agreed was electable, though? War heroes with long records as respected legislators. Like John McCain, John Kerry and Bob Dole. Also electable: moderates who know how to reach across the aisle, like Hillary Clinton, Mitt Romney, and Al Gore.

I have this crazy idea that we should use the primaries to vote for the person we most want to be president. Waldman agrees:

Despite all the evidence that the single most important determinant of getting elected president may be whether a candidate can excite their own party’s voters, we never treat that as a factor in electability. We discuss the electorate as though it has a fixed number of voters, and there will be no one who either stays home because they’re uninspired or turns out when they otherwise wouldn’t have because a candidate excites them. If that’s your assumption, then naturally you conclude that all that matters is whether someone can pull votes from the other side.

Not only that, you’re actively discouraged from thinking that the person whom you really like might be electable. After all, if you’re a partisan, and you love a particular candidate, that must mean they won’t be able to appeal to those magical swing voters.

Let’s repeat that last part — you’re actively discouraged from thinking that the person whom you really like might be electable. So you tell your inner voice to shut up and dutifully vote for the candidate Everybody Says is the right one. Again, this is why Democrats lose, and why the party has been so damn unesponsive to ordinary constituents for so long.

Alex Pareene:

Democratic voters did not teach themselves to prioritize electability over their own actual concerns. They were trained to, over many years, by party figures who over-interpreted the loss of George McGovern, or who wanted to use the fear of McGovern to maintain their power over the Democratic candidate pipeline and nomination process. “Electability” is a way to get voters to carry out a contrary agenda—not their own—while convincing them they’re being “responsible.”

Fight the programming! Don’t vote as you’re told! Listen to your own conscience!

And now Democratic candidates and their most loyal voters are stuck in an absurd feedback loop. The politicians campaign and govern as if they themselves don’t believe a majority of voters prefer their agenda, signaling to their most loyal voters that they must vote not for what they want, but for what they imagine their more-conservative neighbors might want. But when voters in 2016 did exactly that, and nominated the candidate they were repeatedly told was most qualified to defeat Trump in the general election, they chose a person who went on to lose to him.

And where is that programming coming from? Jill of Brilliant at Breakfast:

Every time I see the word “electable” used, I know that it’s code that means some candidate that isn’t going to rock the boat, but is palatable to the moneyed pundit class whose jobs can’t be outsourced and who rarely set foot outside the Washington cocktail weenie circuit.

What if — I know this is crazy, but pretend — we had something called a “primary election” in which we all voted for the person we really truly deep in our hearts wanted to be president, and lo, when the votes were counted our first choice actually won! And this same person won primaries in other states as well! Wouldn’t that person be “electable”? If not, why not?

And then, if we more often elected people we really wanted, maybe we’d have a better government. I know, it’s crazy.

I have a question; maybe one of you understands how this works.

When the attorney general of the U.S. is a lawbreaker, what part of law enforcement deals with him? Capitol Police? I’m asking because I don’t know the answer.

If the House decides to subpoena Barr or hold him in contempt of Congress, is there someone who could actually arrest him? The Sargeant-in Arms of the House is supposed to be the person to arrest someone in contempt of Congress, but what if Barr decides he doesn’t peacefully want to be arrested? Barr is, after all, the head of all federal law enforcement.  I’m not sure how arresting him would work.

The famous example of John Mitchell doesn’t provide an answer, because Mitchell wasn’t indicted while in the office of attorney general.. Mitchell resigned in 1972 to manage Richard Nixon’s re-election campaign. He wasn’t indicted until 1974, and he began his prison term in 1977.