A Polarized Nation Learns Polarized Lessons

Afghan commentary continues. At Slate, Ben Mathis-Lilley points to other commentary that seriously suggests it would have been better to remain in Afghanistan forever and ever than to watch whatever is happening now.

The lesson that this part of the press seems to have taken, though, from the admittedly compelling image of a final helicopter taking off from the roof of the U.S. Embassy in Saigon, is that the United States should have extended its military engagement in Vietnam. These writers might not put it this way, given that they also know Vietnam was a “quagmire” in which regrettable things happened while “All Along the Watchtower” played on speakers mounted to the outside of a helicopter, but that’s the logical endpoint of the analogy: that Biden screwed up by ending the war because it associates him with images that might make Americans sad about “losing.”

Today I encountered someone wondering why we didn’t learn “the lessons of Vietnam.” I don’t believe we ever reached any consensus about what those lessons were. Once U.S. combat operations ceased in 1973, we stopped talking about it.

One lesson was that it’s unwise to begin a military operation without a very clear mission objective — an understanding about what would constitute “winning” or “losing” — and an exit strategy. But among the other “lessons” clanking around in people’s heads were “we could have won” (what, precisely?) or that Democrat’s were “soft” on the war and they paid a price. I took that last idea apart a few years ago. I propose that when you get to the place where the only way you avoid “losing” is to just not let the war ever end, you’ve already lost.

I agree with Geoffrey Skelley at FiveThirtyEight that it’s too early to know if there will be a significant political fallout from the withdrawal from Afghanistan. Joe Biden’s approval rating has just dripped below 50 percent, the low point of his presidency so far.

That said, it’s possible Americans won’t penalize Biden all that much for what’s happened in Afghanistan because, outside of some major conflicts, foreign policy doesn’t usually weigh heavily on voters’ minds. Foreign policy is a critical matter — events in recent days have reminded us of the serious implications of the U.S.’s decisions — but the reality is that for years Americans have paid very little attention to the U.S. presence in Afghanistan. Additionally, Americans’ perspectives on the Afghanistan conflict are mixed, with Gallup recently finding about an even split on the question of whether it was a mistake for the U.S. to send troops in the first place. After 20 years in Afghanistan and the unpopular war in Iraq, Americans are skeptical of intervening militarily in foreign countries — even for humanitarian reasons.

Skelley goes on to say that opinions on Afghanistan are polarized by party. Like everyone else these days.

See Paul Waldman, Could the American public learn the right lessons from Afghanistan? (Answer: Maybe) See also Joe Ferullo at The Hill, Beltway reporting of Afghanistan withdrawal a disservice to Americans. Good analysis.

I still say that by Fall, Afghanistan will be mostly out of the headlines and we’ll be refocused on domestic issues.