The Alaska and Wyoming primaries are today, and all the preview comments are about Sarah Palin, Lisa Murkowski, and Liz Cheney. The Alaska election is especially complicated, because Alaska recently switched to rank choice voting. I get a sense no one is terribly clear how that’s going to impact the races. See Nathaniel Rakich at FiveThirtyEight for commentary.
Yesterday we learned that Trump’s clown car team of lawyers had their fingers in a lot of sensitive election data they shouldn’t have been given access to. No real surprise. Lots of people need to face some criminal penalties, though.
And Lindsey Graham and Rudy Giuliani are perhaps even now struggling to be reconciled with facing the Fulton County Georgia grand jury regarding election interference. Will either of them fall on their swords for Trump? Will Rudy be indicted?
Note: I have grandchildren visiting, so posting will be light this week unless something really significant happens.
Yippee! Grandchildren! Hug those grandkids, they are good for the soul. Enjoy your time with them.
they are good for the soul. Enjoy your time with them.
Enjoy the grandkids, maha!
On Sunday, I got a great surprise – my sister and brother-in-law came over. And they brought my niece, who had come up from Georgia, and she brought over her son, my grandnephew, to see me. He's almost 2, and a really cute kid!
I was so happy to see them, I couldn't get myself to comment on your Sunday post.
Ya' got your priorities straight. Spoil the grandkids.
Re the items listed, I think the last is the breakpoint now. The GA inquiry will probably result in an indictment of Rudy Guiliani. Lindsey may take the fifth all day long when he has to testify. (The problem with Lindsey is phone calls he made and the context of the questions he asked and the requests he made. The question(s) Lindsey dare not answer is the extent of coordination between his calls and Trump's office. My guess is that the calls were closely coordinated and the most likely contact was Rudy. If Lindsey admits that, he might also be charged – if he denies it and the prosecutor has evidence that contradicts that, Lindsey can be charged with perjury.
Michael Cohen predicts that Trump needs a scapegoat and Rudy is probably it. Considering how much Rudy knows about Ukraine, that's a dangerous gambit but there's not a lot of indication that Trump is throwing his support behind Rudy. Trump threw Michael Cohen under the bus, so it's not unlikely but it is stupid.
Trump might communicate to Rudy that Manifort and Stone got out of jail – when Trump wins, Rudy will be OK. Except, it's a GA state trial – the POTUS can not pardon. (Governor of GA could – that's going to be Kemp or Abrams. (What color do you want them to paint your cell, Rudy?)
The flip side is that if Trump throws in with Rudy, Trump can't convince a jury that Rudy was acting alone as Trump's defense. That seems to be what Michael Cohen thinks Trump's strategy is. I don't know how much the GA inquiry has on Lindsey in terms of criminal charges. If Lindsey and Rudy are charged, Trump is in real jeopardy if/when either of them rolls.
When will DoJ charge Trump? (assuming they do) Some have noted the search was just outside the 90-day window of the FBI pledge not to affect elections. If that's a factor that the DoJ is respecting, Trump won't be charged until late this year in federal court.
The NY criminal trial against Trump.org starts jury selection Oct. 24. A civil case against Trump security goes to trial next month in NY. But set aside the civil case for now – Trump is looking at criminal charges on three different fronts being charged or going to trial this year.
Pass the popcorn.
Cheney lost her primary election, as expected. I think she's most aggressively advocated for a criminal referral by the committee to the DoJ. That's opinion. Her concession speech was a personal declaration of war against Donald J. Trump. If she doesn't run against Donald J. Trump for POTUS in 2024, she'll try to be the biggest thorn in his side. I think she could be a major pain – I can see her working with Liz Warrren who has nothing in common with the Senator from MA except a common respect for democracy and contempt for Trump. (I'm not predicting we'll see then together, but I'd love it.)
Five-Thirty-Eight continues to report political energy moving to the left. I feel really good about keeping the Senate, and I wouldn't write off the House yet. Just as Democrats tried to use (to some success) the USSC decision striking down Roe, Trump and the GOP is trying to mobilize and motivate the base over the search at MAL.
WHEN will the DoJ charge Trump? (I do not see how they can NOT charge Trump after the raid turned up the evidence that would have resulted in charges for anyone else in the US. (Remember, they charged Petraeus for mishandling Secret info.) If there was an ounce of honor in Trump, they might let Trump do a Nixon and retire into obscurity as absolute as his disgrace. But Trump will start to fade when his heart stops beating – until then he demands the spotlight and center stage.
It looks like Weisselberg (CFO, Trump Organization) will not roll over on Trump but will take a five-month deal. I did four months for my flight – go figure. But NY continues to squeeze Trump, as GA does Rudy and Ms. Lindsey. Trump is in deep trouble in the Georgia probe. If/when criminal charges are filed, some say Trump will throw Rudy nder the bus and say he acted alone. That might be a good strategic move except Rudy knows where the bodies are buried – I think a lot of bodies. So the GA state prosecution may be key to the feds charging Trump for J6.
Judge warns Allen Weisselberg: Testify 'truthfully' against Trump Org or go to jail for 15 years (msn.com)