My Prediction for the Democratic Nomination

I’m going to go out on a tentative limb and predict that Joe Biden will remain the nominee, assuming there are no new public malfunctions. Here are some of the tea leaves I’ve seen over the past several hours:

The Congressional Black Caucus is staying with Biden.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez gave Biden a ringing endorsement yesterday.

Today a report in Axios says the anti-Biden rebellion in Congress is crumbling. It hasn’t completely crumbled, but it appears to be a minority that isn’t getting anywhere.

Some contrairian evidence:

Bill Kristol thinks Biden should get out of the race. Bill Kristol is always wrong.

James Carville thinks Biden should be pushed out. Carville hasn’t been worth listening to for a couple of decades, IMO.

The New York Times editorial board thinks Biden is toast. See above about Kristol and Carville. The Times editorial board isn’t always wrong, but it has terrible political instincts, IMO.

What pushed me over the line, so to speak, is going to sound a little weird. Politico reports that a “top Democratic pollster” that I confess I’ve never heard of —  Bendixen & Amandi? — has a poll out showing Biden dropping considerably behind Trump. But against a hypothetical Kamala Harris candidacy, Harris beats Trump. But guess who would really beat Trump like a prizefighter if she got in the race now? Hillary Clinton.

Sure she would. I’m guessing HRC even now is waiting for the call asking her to come and save the party and the nation. A call I hope she never gets. This poll is nuts. And the opportunists have arrived.

When Trump heard about this poll he threw a fit, as you can imagine.

What could tilt the equation the other way? I’d be worried if Bill Kristol changes his mind, for one thing. Seriously, I can think of a couple of people whose opinions weigh more than most, and those people are Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi. Barack Obama has already said “bad debate nights happen.” Pelosi has been a bit more on the fence. But if either of those came out and said that Biden should drop out, that would seriously change the direction of conventional wisdom. And, of course, President Biden absolutely cannot afford any more bad debate nights or any more episodes of being publicly frail.

Othewise, I’m predicting that by this time next week most of the Democratic Party will be prepared to stand with Biden. I don’t expect everyone to fall in line that quickly, but most will. Not that my predictions pan out all the time, either. For what it’s worth.

21 thoughts on “My Prediction for the Democratic Nomination

  1. There's an old joke about the literary historian who, after years of research, that Wm Shakespere could NOT have written the works attributed to him. In fact, the plays by the illustrious Baird were written by a different poet with the same name.

    I do not give a rodent's fuzzy behind if the accomplishments of this administration in taming  Covid, restoring full employment, addressing infrastructure improvements, bringing (some) drug costs down, reducing and/or eliminating student debt for many (what else have I forgotten?) … whether these are Biden's actual achievements or only the successes of a crack team of committed experts. 

    Trump is an idiot surrounded by psychopaths – dangerous fascists. They know how Trump was inhibited by patriots with some loyalty to the Constitution and the rule of Law. That won't be the case in 2025 if Trump wins. Just my opinion, but the Project 2025 folks are not expecting to control the House in 2025. So none of Trump's plans depend on legislation from Congress. 

    Democrats need to emphasize the fact that the administration is a TEAM – and the team has delivered under Biden. Team Trump delivered the J6 insurrection – a planned attempt to overturn a free and fair election by force and deceit. 

    • I agree.  I confess that I was wavering a bit – but then I watched this interview with a man who correctly predicted 9 of the last 10 presidential elections…and the only one he missed was Al Gore, which was stolen from him after he won it.

      His prediction is that if the Democrats stick with Biden, they'll win…but if they switch, they'll lose.

      • Actually, there was ONE scenario where Harris could be the candidate and win – but that was only if Biden resigned the presidency and made her president…which would make her the incumbent.

        Watch the video…I think it's important.

  2. I'd agree, except there have already been several of those malfunctions. I've been trying not to watch the floodgates open on this, but the Jon Stewart segment this week was just devastating. If Joe's the nominee I'll still vote for him, but I don't know if he's even going to make it to the Convention.

    • Here's an idea. Let's have a President, who serves as long as he can, and we support him, and, if he dies or becomes incapacitated, we let the vice president take over. Do you think the Biden administration can handle something like that, creating a kind-of "I'll step in if the President is unable to act, or dies"?

      I think there's constitutional support for that arrangement. Now, I get it. Maybe Biden is lying to himself. And maybe Harris is lying. And maybe the cabinet is lying. And maybe the people who've spoken to him a lot are lying.

      Or, maybe, Republicans are lying, and were waiting for the first sight of old man cooties to let the bully boys loose, knowing it would include many 'et tu, Brute?' attacks. Like always happens. Like, every single time.


  3. "the opportunists have arrived"

    Oh I would say they arrived the night of the debate and I haven't bothered to listen to any of them. I could care less what any pundit or pollster says Biden is our nominee (no limb here) we are three months from the election , if you want someone else at this point you'll get your wish and it will be Stump.

    "President Biden absolutely cannot afford any more… episodes of being publicly frail"

    Well he's an old man he's going to look frail, frankly this sounds like ageism to me. I thought we democrats were all about inclusion, diversity, I guess maybe not for an old white guy?

  4. Copied from another lefty blog, this guy has it right, not sure why liberals are playing along?

    "The corporate media in this country is complete trash, and what we are witnessing, before our very eyes, amounts to an attempted coup by sowing division and trying to push out Biden. Trump was civilly convicted of rape. No calls for him to get out. Trump was convicted of 34 felonies. No calls to get out. Trump lied 50 times in the debate. No calls to get out."

  5. So President Biden had a bad day in the office.

     Big deal.

     I have had bad days at the office from time to time and no one ever talked about firing me.  Biden has done a lot of positive stuff so he should be our candidate.

  6. I like watching the fight for VP of the republican party (no caps).  Is it all about the neck?  Whose neck will look best in the noose?  None of the lame picks Trump had last time are reactionary enough for this round, and none will opt for a re-run.  Even Hope Hicks finds him hopeless.  

    Trump has gathered a new group of even more absurd perverted elitists with no judgement and less talent ready to run federal agencies.  By the time he is done we will have a county that needs to look Mississippi to see a positive example.  As my late younger brother used to say about Mississippi, when your done taking a shower in Mississippi, you feel like you really need another shower.  

  7. What we're witnessing, in my opinion, is a coordinated attempt by the media, which is either nothing more than a propaganda channel for Trump and MAGA – or owned by billionaires who would actually rather have Trump win and get the YUUGE tax breaks he's promised them…or both.

    I saw a report that, since the debate, there have been 196 negative articles about Biden's poor performance at the debate and need to step aside, while only 6 articles about Project 2025 were published.  What does that tell you?

    Running the country requires a TEAM – and Biden has assembled a great team that has accomplished a lot of very important things.  Trump, on the other hand, assembled a team of sycophants and ideologues whose only quality was loyalty to Trump and the MAGA ideology…and has promised to do much more of the same if re-elected.

    Biden needs to be the candidate – and that's the opinion of Allan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted 9 of the last 10 presidential elections – and the only one he missed on was Al Gore, which was stolen from him after he won.

    Watch this fairly short and compelling video, where he explains why keeping Biden as the nominee is a winner – while switching to a different candidate would cause the Democrats to lose.

  8. I would call your attention to the elephant in the room. His name is apathy. The debate two weeks ago set records for low viewership, including the estimated Internet audience. In my non-scientific opinion, 99% of that reduced audience was there to root for their candidate, not make a decision about the election based on new information.

    Again, as a matter of opinion, in the last few decades, the GOP deliberately turned politics into a sh^t show to drive down engagement and drive up disinterest. It worked. More than any time in my lifetime, citizens don't want to look at the obscene display of vulgarity and naked partisanship which is mostly the GOP. The voice of the borg echoes: "Resistance is futile." 

    The MAGA crowd revels in their stupidity, wrapped in confidence about their interpretation of Q mysteries. They are loony and totally entrenched in "facts" that are not tethered to reality. I'm not saying this is all Republicans – the MAGA kooks are a minority within a minority party as the low turnout at Trump rallies suggests. The less-engaged GOP voter does not know or care about Project 2025, women's rights, or mass deportations. He's against liberals. Those three words are his ENTIRE political philosophy. 

    Those two factions – let's call them the loony-tunes and the nitwits – are the Trump base. Democrats would beat them, I'm sure because we DID beat them in 2020. 

    Outside the GOP and registered Republicans is a third class of registered voters, the Independents. Some of them lean conservative but do not like either party organization. IMO, they are not likely to be enthusiastically FOR any candidate but they can be persuaded to be against. They tend to vote from the gut, and that's dangerous against Trump. The strategy to win this group has to be to link Covid incompetence to Trump, and recovery from Covid to Biden. Everyone who GOT the vax needs to link that feeling of security with Biden. Gut feeling. J6 pictures need to stay out there with audio of the cops who faced the Trump assault. Also audio of people who worked for Trump in the WH and are outspoken about his incompetence.

    We need to hit young voters where they are – the Internet. Use voices they can identify with and trust. OSC and Bernie come to mind. There are others, I'm sure. If Taylor Swift can't endorse Joe, will she do a spot AGAINST Trump that the Democrats have permission to use? Abortion and mass-interment camps are the hot-button issues the might move young people to engage.

    The election does not hang on "general" election polls. The swing states are known. It's the undecided and low-turnout voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin who will determine the election. If you vote in California or Texas, it's not really gonna make a difference in the presidential election. 

    Don't think big regarding the election. Think small. The fate of democracy rests in the the decision of a disaffected, non-engaged, cynical minority who got fed a line of GOP BS that resistance is futile. They will or won't show and that's the whole ball game.

    Last thought: In those swing states, it's not a bad idea to promote Kennedy's anti-vax and Q-oriented, anti-Ukraine positions in ads. If the Dems siphon off a little Trump support to a 3rd-party candidate, it might make the difference.

  9. At last, the NYT editorial board declared Trump unfit for the office of president. 

    A little late but better late than never?  How is this news?  We know what the cult thinks of the NYT.

    Years ago, I waved a print copy at a MAGA type, and he cowered away from it.  He was already fully indoctrinated against it.  

    I would guess even the Monday crossword would intimidate him.  Not a chance he ever did a Wordle.  

  10. About the first Biden-Trump debate:

    Before the debate, I remember reading about the agreed-upon “ground rules” and being pleased with the felon’s mic being muted when it was the President’s turn to speak.

    Now I think it might have been a bad idea, because Biden could hear the felon’s non-stop loud ranting, but the audience couldn’t. So Biden’s pauses (while he tried not to listen to his opponent’s raving) looked like he was simply staring into space in a silent room.

    It reminded me of the famous Dean Scream isolated mic and the false impression it created.

    I think might have been better to keep both mics on, so audiences could get a more realistic idea of what was happening in that room, and what Biden was dealing with.

    Am I wrong?

  11. As of Thursday, only 11 of the 213 Democrats in the House of Representatives and one of the Senate's 51 Democrats had appealed to the president to withdraw from the race.

    Doing the math, what this means is 5% of House democrats, and 2% of Senate democrats ask Biden to withdraw.  And this doesn't even mean that if Biden stays in they won't support him.  Yet we get false, sensationalist headlines, like:

    "Joe in Limbo"

    "Intrigue: Jeffries Meeting on Biden Path Forward"

    My favorite, from the FNYT, of course:

    "At a news conference, President Biden sought to overcome his missteps with policy talk.  But challenges remain."

    "Policy talk"?

    Other than mentioning Trump as VP instead of Harris, which he quickly corrected, and a similar mistake which was also corrected, the kinds of flubs anyone can make, Biden was great.  He showed command of the issues, gave great responses to reporter questions, and showed he was more than competent (as if that should have ever been a question).   A CNN host of a focus group that watched the presser was shocked when two of the participants who were on the fence came away from the conference saying they are now solidly behind Biden.  Even Fox admits Biden performed well at the press conference:

    Fox & Friends host Brian Kilmeade argued Friday that President Joe Biden’s “fine” performance in his solo press conference was the “worst possible scenario” for Democrats seeking to replace their 2024 presidential candidate.

    The good performance was "bad" for the relatively tiny percentage of democrats, Carville, Axelrod, Clooney and the less than 10% of congressional democrats who have turned on Biden with not only no rational justification for their demand that Biden drop out now, but notice none of them even bother to address the risks and hurdles of replacing an incumbent president in the race at this stage of the campaign.  They're all, just do it, even as they KNOW doing it damn near guarantees failure when they say they want to win.

    The media is cherry picking polls that say Biden is "losing" while studiously ignoring those that show there was virtually no change after the debate; dramatically playing up the tiny percentage of democrats against Biden to create a narrative that Biden can't win, ignoring the fact that the vast majority of the democratic party, including democratic voters support Joe Biden.  Its a damned shame that democrats are stupidly playing into this to help their agenda to doom their own candidate so the media can look forward to the clicks and views "reporting" on more drama and chaos with a convicted felon as President.  And Carville, who's damn near the same age as Biden, who hasn't been right about anything (remember his last prediction, that Trump wouldn't show for the debate?) still riding on whatever role he played for Clinton in 1992.  

    Biden is doing the right thing in ignoring these people.  Those who support him need to continue to call out the bias in the media as they go hard after Biden while ignoring Trump.  They're bringing attention to Project 2025.  Biden had a great line about Trump filling out his golf score card before he even hits the tee.  The FNYT had 192 stories about Biden since the debate, and yet one op-ed against Trump they grudgingly produced, still laden with all kinds of mitigating excuses for the GOP, to give themselves cover.  The Times is a trash paper, not worth reading.  

    Its just mind boggling: the democrats have a great candidate with a fantastic record of accomplishment as president, a decent, scandal free man of integrity, running against a convicted felon, who stole classified documents he refuses to return, raped a woman, with an abysmal record as president, supports our enemies and fomented an insurrection.  Biden can and will win in November, in spite of them.


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