It’s been another exciting day for investors.
The S&P 500 fell 6 percent by the end of trading on Friday, pulling the benchmark U.S. index closer to a bear market, Wall Street’s term for a decline of more than 20 percent from its latest peak in mid-February. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite index fell 5.8 percent, pushing it into a bear market.
The U.S. rout followed falls in global markets, and worries about an escalating global trade war overshadowed a positive reading about the health of the U.S. labor market.
The problem with jobs reports is that they’re a lagging indicator. They’re a snapshot of the recent past, which may or may not show us anything about the future.
Meanwhile, the White House can’t seem to get its story straight about exactly what it’s doing. Today various spokespeople sternly told the press that the tariffs were not open to negotiation. Later in the day Trump said they were. In fact, he has decided that was the goal all along.
White House officials also circulated internal talking points telling surrogates that the tariffs should not be characterized as a starting point for negotiations, according to three people with knowledge of the matter who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe internal matters.
But after markets closed down sharply, Trump told reporters on Air Force One that he would be open to striking deals with individual countries.
Here’s the new story:
“Every country is calling us. That’s the beauty of what we do,” Trump said. “We put ourselves in the driver’s seat. If we would have asked these countries to do us a favor, they would have said no. Now they will do anything for us.”
He says he’s waiting for all these countries to offer him something “phenomenal.” Whatever that is. What’s probably really happening here is that the reaction to the tariff announcement was much worse than Trump had anticipated. Now he’s letting it be known that countries had better call him to make him an offer. If they wait too long, they’ll lose out. Even now, no doubt, Trump is waiting by the phone. In the meantime, any country or multinational corporation with any sense is figuring out how to reorganize trade and business around the United States. Not with it. It isn’t just the tariffs; it’s the uncertainty. Trump might withdraw all this in a couple of days. Or not.
Rolling Stone reports that Trump shared a video claiming he is tanking the stock market on purpose.
On Friday morning, the president shared a link on Truth Social to what appears to be a partially AI-generated video claiming that he was “Purposely CRASHING The Market.”
The one-minute video — originally shared March 15 on TikTok — predates the president’s tariff announcement on Wednesday. It claims that “Trump is crashing the stock market by 20 percent this month, but he’s doing it on purpose. […] Here’s the secret game he’s playing, and it could make you rich.”
The video proposes that Trump is attempting to “push cash into treasuries, which forces the Fed to slash interest rates in May, and those lower rates give the Fed the ability to refinance trillions of debt very inexpensively. It also weakens the dollar and drops mortgage rates. Now it’s a wild chess move, but it’s working.”
“What about his tariffs? I’ll tell you, it’s a genius play,” the video adds. “It actually forces companies to build here to dodge them. It also forces farmers to sell more of their products here in the U.S., to bring grocery prices way down. We’ve already seen this with eggs. Now, remember, 94 percent of all stocks are owned only by 8 percent of Americans. So Trump, he’s taking from the rich short term and handing it to the middle class through lower prices.”
Sound dodgy and completely made up? Don’t stress, the video makes sure to point out that super rich guy Warren Buffet “just said [that] Trump is making the best economic moves he’s seen in over 50 years.” Only Warren Buffet never said that. He actually called Trump’s proposed tariff regime an “act of war.”
That may not have been exactly what Trump was thinking, assuming he even thinks, but he must have decided it sounded like a plan.
At a basic level, the entire MAGA movement, and Donald Trump from whom all of it stems, simply doesn’t grasp the nature of American power or its limitations. In their view, the United States is the natural and inherent dominating power in the world. We’re the most powerful and the strongest. And starting from that view they look out onto the world and think if we are in charge why don’t we act like we’re in charge?
Instead of acting like we’re in charge, we do a lot of consulting and asking. That’s weak and leads everyone to take advantage of us, protecting their industries while we keep our markets open, letting their defenses atrophy and relying on our protection, etc. It’s lost on them that the U.S. is not actually the inherently dominating power on the planet. U.S. primacy is based yes on a vast military, access to the American domestic market, American wealth. But really it’s based on America’s role as the custodian of a global system that on balance works quite well, at least for the other advanced economies of the world. It provides a general peace, a system of more or less known rules enforced with some consistency, a U.S. primacy that keeps the peace without dominating other middle powers, etc. The U.S. global order is like a trampoline with a bowling ball in the middle; like a giant star, the very fabric of the system is subtly angled in the U.S. direction. But on balance it works. The U.S. is the first among equals more than a dominating power.
In other words, precisely what MAGA views as examples of weakness are the bases of American power. Donald Trump wants to hold the rest of the world in subjection. But the U.S. simply isn’t powerful enough to do that. It may have been just after World War II for a while. But it certainly isn’t now. That’s also why the American primacy has so long outlasted the Soviet one, whose satellites tore away from it at the first opportunity, and even before any real opportunity: because the U.S. primacy actually worked quite well for allies in Europe and East Asia. Donald Trump is only able to look at America’s persistent trade deficits. The role of the dollar as the global reserve currency and the massive advantages it brings are lost on him and that’s what makes the trade deficits in some ways inevitable and also sustainable. It also gives the U.S. a whole series of other vast advantages, one of which is being able to borrow and borrow and have it mostly not matter.
And in the name of making America “great again,” Trump and his culties are destroying everything that made it great. And I don’t believe there will be any going back. It will be a long time before the U.S. is trusted again, I fear, never mind seen as a “leader” of any sort. Please do read the entire essay. Josh Marshall goes on to the de-industrialization of the United States that was pushed by “Reagan, Thatcher and the G7 powers” created a real problem for the U.S. How do we re-industrialize? This appears to be what Trump wants to do, but the way he’s going about it isn’t going to work.
And, of course, Congress could put a stop to all this right now. It won’t, of course. But give it a few weeks. I don’t think it’s completely impossible that some Republicans will break down under pressure from donors and constituents and move to rein in Trump.
Well said, trust is that which once made America great, along with other human values which are being abandoned. When you put lies in the mouth of Warren Buffet using 'social' media the race to the bottom is on. Is nothing sacred?
Well yes. Tic Tok. Which got another extension. Overriding bipartisan legislation again.
"…is being abandoned"
Please. donnie's entire goal is to weaken the US so that NATO become irrelevant, among other goals. Anything to goose his spouse, Putin.
I'm not sure there is a method in the madness. Trump is operating more on his grievances and muddled psychological state than on logic. And even if he tried to apply logic, he still doesn't know what he's doing. Yeah, he'd like to kill NATO, probably because he's listening to Putin. But by itself that doesn't explain the tariffs.
I think as Sen. Murphy has said: "tariffs are means to compel loyalty from every country, business that will need to petition Trump for relief". It's a power play and if it causes pain he could fucking care less. He sat and watched the magats attempt to destroy the capital he'll sit and watch the economy melt down. Trump has played this destructive game his entire life, he did it with Daddy's money, he has never worked a day in his life and has no appreciation for work or people that work. He's a spoiled rotten child.
He wants NATO dead.
He wants no constraints on himself. Basically, he doesn't want anything in writing. Literally.
Until the pain is felt by all, except the ultra-rich, Trump may cling to power. When a significant majority is fed up with the chaos to the point that the masses take to the streets, Trump is cornered. Only by discarding elections and sending armies to quell dissent, can his rule endure.
If I am right, even the USSC, which has partially denied Trump absolute power, will rule against a call for martial law and the suspension of elections. Then, the military (not the Pentagon) will refuse orders to subdue the citizens of their homeland.
Congress will remove Trump, and with defeat apparent, many loyalists, hoping to escape consequences will switch sides. In the end, the National Guard will blockade the White House, allowing defectors to leave, but nothing and no one to enter.
Those who have read Tolkien and remember "The Scouring Of The Shire" may comprehend the task that will lie ahead. There may be a nearly universal desire for a real renewal of civic virtue and values. If the people unseated the dictator, they may stay engaged in the years that follow and build a wall between OUR government and big money. It is because of the corruption of our government by pure greed that we are in this place. Only by restoring populist power and empowering the judiciary to guard civil rights can we castrate the groups that would create a power structure for white male "christian" bigots.
Of course, things won't unfold as I describe. But carry in your mind the vision of a just society. We can't win only by opposing evil. We must build what should be.
Well said, sir. Damn, I wish Americans would listen.
Finally, someone at MSNBC noted how crazy Laura Loomer is while the NYT lamed in with an influential fringe figure description of her in today's story, but only in the headline. The MSNBC story associated her with a number of outlandish conspiracy theories which she has endorsed over time and made no attempt to sane wash her or her relationship. Yes, birds of a feather do tend to flock together. Yes, she appeared to get a number of high-level intelligence officials fired. Yes, her judgement seemed the deciding factor it seems if not the only deciding factor. That is quite a bit of power to give to anyone, but she must have that special something that is guiding our ship of state. That special something that can turn the ship's rudder. Orban and Putin seem to have it also. Go figure.
Laura Loomer’s Role in NSC Firings Shows Rising Sway of Fringe Figures on Trump – The New York Times
Well, if the Brits can do Brexit, we can do it bigger and more awesomely.
"Earthxit"?
Hmmm, maybe Musk promised to make Trump the Emperor of Mars…
Trump has fantasized for years about a giant crash that would show … something. He's said the same nonsense about the use of nuclear weapons: why have them if you don't use them?
Sleep tight.
A rant: The super wealthy want all of the money and they also want control of everything. They believe that AI and robotics will allow them to achieve and maintain a functional global society where the super-wealthy rulers have a lifestyle equivalent to ten times the extravagance of the current super wealthy, while intentionally starving to death all of the riff raff humans who used to be needed to support the super wealthy. The muskrat has promised them this, along with recreational tourism trips to Mars.
The super wealthy are using Drumph to realize this fever dream. I have no doubt that the super wealthy, between November and February quietly sold some of their stocks, and bought put options. The market crash is just beginning. They want full-on depression because they have so much money, they can survive. Once the crash is done they will buy up everything at bargain-basement prices: stocks, real estate, bonds, collectibles, everything. The federal government agencies are currently being gutted to make them incapable of performing their mission. The rogue govt will then have an excuse to scam the desperate people that privatizing is the solution. All current government functions that they want to have will then be owned by them as profit centers.
Welcome to dystopia. I feel really bad for my children and all generations younger than me.
Just a thought about the tariffs that made no sense…
Trump wants a big beautiful budget passed with permanent tax cuts (plus money for his gulags.) Passing it has one major bottleneck. The House Freedom Caucus wants cuts deep enough to offset the lost revenue. "Moderate" Republicans in the House fear they will lose the next election if goodies for white males are curtailed. Both sides have been promised that the bill out of the Senate will make everyone happy. How?
I heard Peter Navarro saying that tariffs will generate trillions over the next ten years. A number so outrageous that it would cost every citizen fifteen hundred bucks per year. What if Trump intends to keep tariffs on long enough to generate revenue that Johnson can pretend will be permanent for the purpose of passing the budget?
Maybe that's too far out there. But Navarro was not reassuring anyone with the numbers he was tossing out casually. Not if you understand that YOU are the sucker paying those big bucks. If prices jump soon, most voters will be convinced that tariffs are a bad thing.
At the same time families are coming to grips with a huge net cut in purchasing power, Trump will be trying to sell Congress of the false promise that this curse on voters is a forever tax.
Note on Navarro from Rachael Maddow show:
How bogus is that?
Credibility Zero and dubious competency. The con's con man.
Navarro is a total whack job. Fortunately, most of that circle know this.
It is a confederacy of dunces nonetheless.
Navarro is a total whack job. Fortunately, most of that circle know this.
It is a confederacy of dunces nonetheless.
We need someone doing effective anti-corruption, anti-trust, and anti-privatization in the media. I don't think the government can do that right now.