Katrina as in Hurricane Katrina. Garry Kasparov wrote in The Atlantic that Trump supporters like to claim that “he’s playing five-dimensional chess, only to discover too late that he has eaten half the pieces.” And it’s happening big time in Venezuela. The military mission to kidnap Maduro was brilliant. Everything else about Trump’s move on Venezuela is stupid on steroids.
On Friday trump met with the oil execs he expected to pour money and resources into revising Venezuela’s oil industry. From all reports most of them said they couldn’t commit under present circumstances. As I wrote yesterday, the Wall Street Journal reported the execs “indicated they need security guarantees and an overhaul of Venezuela’s legal and commercial framework to consider diving in.” But Trump chose to leave the Chavismos in control of the government, and it’s their framework. So an overhaul is not likely to happen. And there is much speculation that most of the oil execs won’t go in without a commitment of U.S. military protection. You know, boots on the ground.
To be fair, a couple of execs — Jeff Hildebrand of Hilcorp and Bill Armstrong of Armstrong Oil and Gas (I had never heard of them, either) — gave Trump political cover by promising to invest in Venezuela. But they didn’t commit to how much, or when.
Yesterday Trump declared that Venezuela is now “rich and safe.” And yesterday the U.S. State Department warned U.S. citizens in Venezuela to get out of there, now.
The United States has urged its citizens to leave Venezuela immediately amid reports that armed paramilitaries are trying to track down US citizens, one week after the capture of the South American country’s president, Nicolás Maduro.
In a security alert sent out on Saturday, the state department said there were reports of armed members of pro-regime militias, known as colectivos, setting up roadblocks and searching vehicles for evidence that the occupants were US citizens or supporters of the country.
“US citizens in Venezuela should remain vigilant and exercise caution when traveling by road,” the alert added, urging citizens to depart immediately now that some international flights from Venezuela have restarted.
So the Venezuela misadventure is likely to turn into a world-class quagmire. As always, Trump failed to grasp what it would take to bring about his goals, whatever those were. If it was really about the oil, he grossly miscalculated. If deep down he just wanted to pull off some flashy military thing to get attention, okay, he did that. And if he had any sense he’d announce that after consulting with the oil execs the oil thing is going to be postponed a few months in order to [insert excuse here]. And then when those few months have gone by maybe there will be a better excuse. Or everyone will have moved on to something else. Just leave Venezuela the bleep alone, in other words. But I expect him to keep trying to “fix” it, which will likely blow up in his face. because he doesn’t know what he’s doing.
Update: Darren Woods, CEO of ExxonMobil, told Trump last week (politely) that Venezuela was currently “uninvestable” and that his company required substantive reforms before investing there. Trump is now saying he is “inclined” to keep ExxonMobil out of Venezuela. I doubt Mr. Woods is all that heartbroken about this.
I’m also just now hearing that the DoJ has opened a criminal investigation into Fed chair Jerome Powell. Trump is saying he knows nothing about it, which of course is a damn lie. (end of update)
But it’s worse. The Daily Mail reports that “Donald Trump has ordered his special forces commanders to draw up a plan for the invasion of Greenland – but is being resisted by senior military figures, The Mail on Sunday has learned.” The Mail is a British tabloid, and I don’t know how reliable it is. Trump has been talking a lot about the U.S. must possess Greenland, but I’m not seeing reporting about potential plans anywhere else.
But lots of media sources are reporting that Trump wants to bomb Iran. Yesterday the U.S. military did bomb Syria again. And he’s threatening Cuba to negotiate “BEFORE IT’S TOO LATE!” It’s like he’s just having way too much fun being commander in chief. He can bomb anyone he wants! Maybe he’ll bomb Minnesota next!
If only we had a Congress.
So much here to inspire comment but let's just comment on Kasparov and his five-dimensional chess lead. With a name like Kasparov what would you expect. He went with 5-D chess I guess because 4-D chess just would not be extreme enough. 2=D chess is quite extreme for most people, and some should stick with checkers. He, formerly known as fearless leader, could be one of the some who should stick with checkers. We can assume he will try to cheat at that too. His golf game shows that. Mere sandbagging would be beneath him. Why sandbag when you can just flaunt the rules and fix the results of the tournament.
This year expect him to demand a share of the Fed-Ex cup or win it outright using mail in score cards. Anything he does as President is legal you know and who will even try to stop him. Sure, that is not an "official act" but an executive order can fix that. His only limitation he declares is his own morality. So, nothing is beyond limits, then, one might guess, as nothing can be drawn from an empty set.
The rest of the Kasparov article was great too. I'll read him but because of his name alone would hesitate to play him in chess.
Diaper Don is feeling the heat, economy, Epstien, Venezuela, ICE nazi's so it's time for a new distraction. Bondo opened an investigation on Fed Chair Powell for fraud. Fraud they say. Pot meet kettle!
Regarding Venezuelan oil… there's a bunch of poor people in Venezuela. It's entirely possible they know they are sitting on HUGE reserves of oil. Like the people of Saudi Arabia, they might think they shouldn't have hunger as a constant companion. So if the UN actually supervises free and fair elections, will the people of Venezuela pick the candidate with "Exon" tattooed on his ass, or the candidate who promises oil will provide for the basic needs of the people first? Yeah. Big oil wants 'guarantees' in the form of US soldiers who will kill socialists if they are elected in free and fair elections. Keep holding elections until the guy with the Exon tattoo is the winner. And then stop holding elections. Long live democracy.
So, my guess would be you are defining socialist here as anyone who would expect all of the people of Venezuela to share fairly from their oil wealth?
What share of the pie would all agree to be fair? By what miracle could you get a consensus on that? Could you even get a consensus on who gets to decide on if you have a consensus?
The answers are certain to be in the fifth dimension at least one would estimate. A graphic representation will be hard to come by.
But as they say Fools do tend to rush in. Our Fool has already eaten half the pieces. The Brits would call it a bloody horror. I'd say that's a right proper call.
One thing giving me hope right now is how desperate the actions of the administration are becoming, as if they know they only have a short time left before Trump is no longer able to provide cover.
Your "Update" should quote the Exxon CEO as saying Venezuela is "uninvestable" not “uninvertible”
Thanks. I’m supposed to be getting cataract surgery one of these days and have trouble reading what I write. So please excuse my misspellings.
Thx, AnotherKevin, I was worried that "uninvertible" was some new CorpSpeak euphemism. Sadly, Maha's [incorrect?] quote makes too much sense, as Exxon would probably prefer Trump to "invert" (= turn over = overturn) Venezuela's Gov't.