This morning Trump told Michael Scherer of The Atlantic that Iran’s new leadership wants to talk. So Iran has new leadership already? So much for regime change.
“They want to talk, and I have agreed to talk, so I will be talking to them. They should have done it sooner. They should have given what was very practical and easy to do sooner. They waited too long,” Trump told me in a phone call from his Mar-a-Lago resort shortly before 9:30 a.m.
Except that there were ongoing talks, and word coming from the Foreign Minister of Oman that progress was being made. Trump can’t keep his stories straight.
Trump expects the people of Iran to rise up and depose the old regime. Everything I’ve read from knowledgeable people is that Iran already had a plan for what would happen if the Supreme Leader was assassinated. As in Venezuela, most likely the “new leadership” is just a reshuffling of the old leadership. Don’t be too surprised if someone emerges as the new Ayatollah in a few weeks. As for a popular uprising taking over, I’m reading that Iran has a lot of different factions that don’t necessarily get along, and trying to form any sort of unified movement from that would be an uphill climb. See Trump is making dangerous assumptions about who will take power in Iran by Sam Kiley at The Independent.
Back to Michael Scherer at The Atlantic:
Soon after our conversation, U.S. military officials announced that three U.S. service members were killed in the operation and five more were seriously wounded—the first known American casualties of the campaign. Trump told me he expects the attack on Iran will not disrupt Republican efforts before this fall’s midterm elections to convince voters that his administration is focused on delivering economic benefits for the country. “We have the greatest economy we’ve ever had,” he told me. “The word isn’t out because people like you don’t write about it properly. But the economy is ready to go through the roof. And it already is in many cases.”
Sure it is. There is also a real possibility that the Iran stunt will drive up petroleum prices over the next several months, which will not be helpful to Trump’s “affordability” problem.
I’m also reading that Trump thinks the bomb Iran project will end in a week or so. He’s hoping it does, I’m sure. I’m reading that a lot of the MAGA faithful are not happy, but they might forgive Trump if the bombing actually ends soon. See also MAGA Reacts to Trump’s Strikes on Iran: ‘Absolutely Disgusting and Evil’ by Peter Wade at Rolling Stone.
“The attack came despite U.S. intelligence assessments that Iran’s forces were unlikely to pose an immediate threat to the U.S. mainland within the next decade,” says reporting in the Washington Post. The same reporting also said Trump was pushed into going along with an attack by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Bibi Netanyahu Not exactly an “America First” duo. Trump has a history of listening to authoritarian strongmen before he listens to his own intelligence services. I suspect unresolved daddy issues.
I recommend Trump Has No Plan for the Iranian People by Anne Applebaum at The Atlantic. It reveals the Trump Administration to be a directionless mess. Various officials apparently are left to themselves to discern what U.S. policy is supposed to be, and their public statements are contradictory. And because Trump’s gang of obsequious amateurs is left to making up their jobs as they go along, often one part of the administration is working at cross-purposes with the other parts. Certainly more could have been done by other presidents to help/encourage the people of Iran to build an effective resistance against the Islamic regime. However, she continues,
The second Trump administration has gone much further in the opposite direction, actually dismantling tools that could have helped promote civic engagement and build a united opposition in Iran. The administration has taken money away from Iranian-human-rights-monitoring groups and defunded media projects. Under the leadership of the former Arizona political candidate Kari Lake, the U.S. Agency for Global Media has prevented Radio Farda, the Farsi-language channel of the U.S. broadcaster Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, from using American transmission equipment.
Voice of America, the U.S. government’s other Persian-language channel, cut back coverage and lost credibility by producing partisan broadcasts. The channel’s leadership has actually banned any mention of Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, the son of the late shah of Iran, who commands a substantial following both inside and outside the country. As a result, VOA lost ground to the Saudi-funded channel Iran International. Lake also cut funding for another agency, the Open Technology Fund, dedicated to providing virtual private networks and satellite access to Iranians, among others. That decision might also help keep Iranians inside the country isolated from the large dissident movement in the diaspora.
So while it’s possible the bomb Iran project will not turn out to be an utter waste of lives and resources — or worse, turn into a long-term regional war — any favorable outcome will not be because of the Trump Administration, but in spite of it. Because the Trump Administration isn’t qualified to run a bake sale.
Seen today: "Venezuela's Oil had to be secured before destabilizing the Middle East"
The problem with that notion is that, apparently, Venezuela’s oil is of such low quality and costs so much to extract that the big oil companies don’t want to mess with it. And even if the big oil companies changed their minds today and immediately began to address Venezuela’s crumbling oil infrastructure, it would be at least three years, possibly longer, before much Venezuelan oil would be on the market. So that’s not going to save Trump’s ass. But maybe Trump still hasn’t figured that out.
Not qualified to run a bake sale, probably but just by luck alone can't he just do some little job the right way at least. Now he needs to seek forgiveness from congress because you failed to get permission to act. There are reasons to do things the right way and in the right order at times.
Yes, I do know he does not operate by reason but by intuition and hunches. Yes, I know he surrounds himself with sycophants. I just hope his hunches and intuition goes on a lucky streak for a little bit at least. He is way overdue for some good luck, but that is called the gambler's fallacy for a reason. Yes, another reason for him not to even try to understand. Another reason for more of the same.
The "best" – or, more accurately, least bad – thing about Trump is that he's not an "honest politician": he doesn't stay bought. Or in this case, he doesn't stay extorted.
ALL of the excuses for USA bombing Iran are total BS. Republicans are promised a nice, easy win (We're #1!) and war pron featuring dead "towel heads". Democrats get what Anne Applebaum is selling: the fantasy that Iranians will gleefully allow us to enthrone the son of their former dictator*, who will transform Iran into a socially liberal Democracy (like what we wish we had). So why are we bombing Iran [again]?
IMO, Trump ordered the attack because Mossad held some old Epstein tapes over his head. IMO, the news at the top of the OP – that Trump is ready to negotiate with the new leaders of Iran – fits this perfectly. In this case, "doesn't stay bought" means that he [thinks/says he] has fulfilled the terms of the extortion by bombing Iran, and is now glad to negotiate. He'll negotiate with "Iran's new leadership" (per OP), and/or Israel, and take the best deal he can get.
I'm hoping the Iranians have the sense to offer him some prime real estate in downtown Teheran (newly cleared!) for a new Trump Hotel.
* – for a good time, read Wiki "Pahlavi Dynasty". TLDR: installed by British in 1924, the "dynasty" lasted only 55 years with only 2 Shahs. To be fair, both Shahs seem to have desired some political liberalization, but we – UK & USA – shut that down (See: Mossadegh).
I've never heard any Democrats express the least bit of interest in installing Reza Pahlavi as the new Shah of Iran. But this underscores the problem of assuming the people of Iran will rise up and overturn the government and install a new government. There are several different factions with different ideas about what comes next. Somewhere today I read a comment that maybe the Kurds could take over.
Oil prices are up and the stock market futures show weakness going into Monday. Stagflation is still a looming concern. Measles is still going strong.
The days are getting longer and Spring is getting closer. It is not all gloom and doom.
The United States reminds me of Garry Hoy (1954-1993) from the law firm of Holden Day Wilson. We keep hitting our unbreakable society every day with new blows of stupidity or malice, confident that all the amenities and advantages the majority enjoys will always be there anyway.
– Strahan Cadell
If the US does not occupy Iran, we have almost zero influence in what faction fills the power vacuum we created. Almost always the successor in this opportunity is more brutal and repressive than the previous tyrant. The unifying cry of the new administration will be "Death to America – Death to Israel."
So enjoy the winning. I think the GOP can read the polls. This war doesn't have popular support. Bush/Cheney spent months building a false argument for war. We were looking for the WMD arsenals at this point. Nobody knows why we’re there.
Bibi wins for a short time but he's pursuing a policy that is becoming a political liability in the US. It's getting harder to take AIPAC money, especially for Democrats. Watch this because an issue in the primary House races as incumbent Democrats avoid criticizing Bibi for the same war they slam Trump for. When the AIPAC candyman comes around in 2027, a lot more Dems won't see him, and maybe a few Republicans.
In geopolitical terms, an attack on Israel by Iran might have saved Bibi politically. US popular support would have shifted to protect Israeli citizens. Israel delays the attack from Iran to keep military assets in Gaza at the expense of US support.
I should mention that Gallup polled support for Israelis v support for Palestinians at a statistical tie. The trend is certain as boomers die off and younger people exert more influence. Time itself becomes the controlling factor and it's not in favor of tyrants in their 80s. They cling to power like they cling to life. I see no line of succession. They don't acknowledge their mortality, inviting a power struggle that will destroy their movement.
Time may be the deciding factor.
For it's one, two, three what are we fighting for? Don't know? Mixed messages? We are obviously making it up as we go along. No, we are not improvising. That word is for skilled artists who know the difference between making music and just making noise. We generate a cacophony of hostility with no clue as to what the outcome will be. We are just letting a batch of incompetents try to follow the whims of a madman because we failed to act with sanity when we had the chance.
Now we have lost any sense of reason and sensibility. That was by design. Those who venerate nothing have the chaos and horror they wanted. Now we hear things must get worse before they get better. Worse it will get. You may now get to find out just how bad things can get. Then as they can and usually do, things just stay there. I've been down this path before when the better just never comes. They too were making it up as they went along with no clue as to what better might even be.