Phillips O’Brien (no relation I know of) is an American historian and professor of strategic studies at the University of St Andrews, Scotland. He was formerly at the University of Glasgow where he ran the Scottish Centre for War Studies. And this is what Professor O’Brien thinks of Trump’s cease fire deal.
Donald Trump yesterday showed how few cards the USA had to play in his war of choice, when he went from threatening to destroy Iranian people, culture and history, to agreeing to a two-week ceasefire and talks based on an Iranian ten point plan. The details of this plan (see below) amount to a comprehensive US defeat. If this indeed is the end of the war and that Iranian plan is the basis of a deal, it makes this if not the longest war in US history, the most pointless and a complete waste. Iran looks on the verge of emerging stronger, with the ability to generate massive new income, while the US looks, in a word, a busted flush.
This is no run of the mill TACO. This is complete US strategic failure.
Last night I was reading contradictory reports on the status of the Strait of Hormuz. I’m reading now that it’s still not safe until everyone has agreed to new protocols. Even whenever the Strait is safe I’m reading that it will be months before oil production is back to where it was, so there will be less oil on the world market for a while. And Iran wants control of the Strait from now on, which it didn’t have before. It plans to charge a fat fee — $2 million a ship — for passage through its strait.
Iran state media published the ten-point plan that it says will be the basis of negotiations. Professor O’Brien calls them Iran’s “victory terms.” Do read O’Brien’s entire post; it will catch you up better than I can.
And then Trump promptly said that wasn’t the same list of ten points he agreed to yesterday, but he wouldn’t say what those other points were. Probably he just doesn’t remember what he was told yesterday. The cease fire doesn’t seem to be entirely holding, but I don’t think Pete Hegseth has bombed anybody today. But it looks like Trump will get nothing he wanted. Iran, on the other hand, will come out of this much stronger and more feared. See also A New Geopolitical Reality Is Here by Thomas Wright at The Atlantic and Ignorance and Ignominy by Paul Krugman.
Of course, we don’t know how this episode will end. Trump could throw a fit tomorrow and go back to threatening to destroy Iran. I don’t know if Trump realizes even now how badly he screwed up. Most Republicans in Congress are unlikely to do anything to rein him in. Yet. When they get closer to the midterms and they are facing an electoral abyss they may change their minds.
This episode also demonstrates that The World’s Biggest Military Power is no stronger than the intelligence of the people leading it. With Trump and Hegseth in charge, it’s clear we’d be better off with less military and more smarts. It’s the U.S. that’s looking like a paper tiger right now.
Update: Another good link. This is Greg Sargent at The New Republic, MAGA Dolt Hegseth Accidentally Reveals Big Hole in Trump Victory Claim. Hegseth claims that all the bombs he dropped made Iran want to negotiate. Sargent points out that Iran was negotiating before the bombs dropped and was willing to concede more then that it is now.
I’m thinking Hegseth getting shit canned isn’t far off.
There is zero chance that Trump accepts the blame.
I'm thinking this is the biggest turning point, so far in 2026. We could've woken to parts of Iran turned into glass, their thousands of years old culture notwithstanding.
Who knows what Trump's real plan or intentions were, or his calculations? Does anyone doubt that he would drop a nuke, if he thought it advantaged him?
The point is, the rest of the world now knows this, including the billionaires who run this country. Trump has tipped his hand: yes, he would blow up the world in a heartbeat. He's crazier than you could possibly imagine. This is why you're hearing more authoritative noise from that odious weasel, JD Vance.
Vance may be going all out to shore up Hungary's dictator, but at least he's not crazy. When the reins change hands, everyone will breathe a sigh of relief. But at the end of the day, he's still an odious weasel nobody likes, and will absolutely be a target, when the Democrats ride into town, and begin the long, historic prosecution of the Trump regime and its enablers.
At a higher level, America was spared (so far), and I'm encouraged. Millions of people praying for peace, here and abroad had their effect, steering humankind away from disaster. Much more is needed.
Yogananda said it was spiritual power that (would need to grow) to defeat evil. He was alive during World War 2 (and tried to meet with Hitler), and saw the great technical power humans were accumulating, but were spiritually attenuated.
The gospel of greed is obviously not the spiritual power that is needed to grow to defeat evil. Tried that. Grandiose failure.
The quickest read ever would be The Spiritual Wisdom of Pete Hegseth.
Vance may be going all out to shore up Hungary's dictator, but at least he's not crazy.
Well, he comes very close in my estimation as a weird religious fanatic. I do not think any other US Vice-President has had a Pope send a message to them telling them that they are distorting or seriously misinterpreting church doctrine as Pope Francis did.
Re visiting Viktor Orbán: Clearly the Washington regime wants Orbán defeated. Given the general EU sentiment towards the Trump and his clown crew in Washington a visit from a US VP is more likely a kiss of death.
I have not seen recent Hungarian polls but the numbers are not good in any of the half-dozen or so EU countries where I have seen recent polling results and my guess is that Hungary will be similar.
That makes sense, but I don’t think it’s true. Trump and his people aren’t that clever. The U.S. Right genuinely admires Victor Orbán and wants the U.S. to be run the same way Orbán runs Hungary. And I’m sure Trump thinks Orbán is great; he loves everybody who is an anti-democracy strongman dictator.
You are probably correct. After posting I started asking myself if the inmates in the Washington bubble really realize how unpopular they are in most of the rest of the world.
What I don't understand is why Orbán did not have diplomatic flu or something. I may be completely misreading the situation in Hungary and Orbán is right to be seen with Vance.
Reinforcing Maha's point re the VeePee pilgrimage to Hungary:
In addition to Maha's observation the Drumpf thinks Orban is great, I'll offer the observation that during Biden's term Orban, as sitting Prime Minister of Hungary, made two visits to Mar a Lago. Because Drumpf was a private citizen at the time, there was no readout of the details of discussions.
Even before various Earth-1 reporters suggested it, I suspected that the purpose of those meaning was for Drumpf to be trained in the playbook that was successfully used in Hungary to dismantle the democracy there. Yes, yes, I know that Drumpf is not trainable, but you can think of that "training" in this case was instead "influence"; Same outcome.
I can see Trump ordering the dropping of nukes just to salvage his own fragile ego. There was some question about why were so many experienced generals and commanders being fired in the middle of a conflict, and I believe these were men and women who pushed back on the crazier Trump/Kegseth requests, including the use of nuclear weapons.
Dropping nuclear weapons on Iran would be devastating far beyond the destruction of that country and its people. The fallout from a blast, the megaton yields of which would make Nagasaki look like a firecracker, would devastate that entire region, rendering much of it unusable, like Chernobyl. Not to mention that it could trigger others to launch as well.
Lastly, what they're saying now about Iran can't be allowed to have a nuclear weapon was the same thing they said about North Korea. Kim has had nukes now for at least ten years, he has talked trash now and then, but the US was not attacked. And if Iran gained nuclear weapons, I doubt they'd attack, just because, because most leaders, even the dictators know, that's not like just dropping a conventional bomb; there are consequences far beyond the targeted regions. Countries desire to have nuclear weapons for protection, so they can't be bullied by the US and other nuclear powers. And the lesson from Trump's war n Iran underscores that point; you can't blame them for wanting a nuclear weapon, because its clear we don't bother countries that have them.
Hegseth is a caricature of Stupid Religion. Theologians are collectively face palming.
"War of choice" is a euphemism for "war of aggression".
Quote of the Day:
"When you put a clown in the palace he doesn't become a king, the palace becomes a circus."
– Lori
Slightly OT, but mostly just a few days late… I've been getting short reels from this guy in my social media for at least 3-4 months. Not every day, but here and there. He has a youtube channel, and I really like what he puts out. It's political observation but not so much hard core political operative blocking and tackling, more along the lines of a social / ethical perspective on political events. Suits me well in some ways. He's a writer poet and activist from Arkansas.
Monday he showed up in my feed, and my reactions was: OMG, POTUS has provoked Robert Arnold to curse! (I haven't previously heard any swears come out of his mouth, though I certainly haven't viewed every single video he's posted on his youtube channel, so who knows.) Anyway, here's the post that encountered and I think it's really good. (Hope the link works)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yeXrREszHI4
Here's another thing that came up in my social media. In these dark times, I think being able to laugh at dark humor is valuable. I'm just pasting in the text from the post, for your enjoyment:
"I wrote a poem, in the style of Dr. Seuss at
breakfast the other morning.
I do not like you Donald Trump.
I do not like your big fat rump.
I do not like your stupid hair.
I do not like you anywhere.
I wish for you to go away.
I wish for you to have to pay.
I wish you would take all of your peeps,
And disappear for 10,000 weeks.
You do not make our country great.
You only spew nonsense and hate.
Pinocchio had nothing on you,
But the Epstein files most certainly do."
Trump people are turning. Not just MTG, but Alex Jones, and Tucker Carlson. There have been Fox segments that listed the objectives of the war that are not met. He's bleeding support in all polls.
There's no clear change in stated position that points a way out. If he just pulls the fleet out, he looks weak. If he nukes Iran, he's a lunatic mass murderer everywhere. I expect a sleight of hand trick, which the war was intended as a distraction from Epstein. He has gas at four buck per gallon. Threatening Greenland won't make the perception of a recession go away. It's hard to imagine how the GOP could be in a worse position going into the midterms. But if anyone can make this disaster a total catastrophe, we elected the best man for the job.
I see this degenerating into a three-gunman showdown. One shooter is Trump, alone. Iran is the second shooter, standing with everyone who wants the oil to flow again and can tolerate concessions to Iran to make it happen. I put Europe, China, and India on that team. The last shooter is the team that wants Iran decimated – Bibi is there, but so is MBS for the Saudis and the other Arab nations with a Sunni/Shiite grudge. They stand to lose big if the US leaves Iran standing. They are 'upstream' of the Staight of Homuz, with all their wealth bottled up by Iran.