I did not know until today that RFK the Lesser rejects germ theory — “the unquestionable scientific idea that specific pathogenic microbes cause specific diseases,” it says here.
As Ars Technica reported last year, Kennedy wrote about his germ theory denialism explicitly in his 2021 book The Real Anthony Fauci. In it, Kennedy maligns germ theory as a tool of pharmaceutical companies, scientists, and doctors to promote the use of modern medicines. Instead of accepting germ theory, Kennedy promotes a concept akin to the discarded terrain theory, in which diseases stem not from germs, but from imbalances in the body’s inner “terrain.” Those imbalances are claimed to be caused by poor nutrition and exposure to environmental toxins and stressors. (In his book, Kennedy erroneously labels this as “miasma theory,” but that is a different theory that suggests diseases derive from breathing bad air, vapors, or mists from decaying or corrupting matter. The idea was supplanted by germ theory, while terrain theory was never widely accepted.)
There is something seriously wrong with that man. He should probably be in some kind of sheltered or assisted living situation where he can be monitored. I’m serious.
And then I read that Trump is bringing back firing quads for federal executions. Trump is a big believer in executions, apparently. There is no data anywhere showing that the death penalty deters crime.
A new study of more than three decades of FBI homicide data by the Death Penalty Policy Project has found that, after 1,600 executions, the public and police are actually safer in states that don’t have or have recently abolished the death penalty. And, among the death penalty states, the public and police are safer in states that currently have official moratoria on executions or have rarely executed anyone.
Moreover, the states that are now most actively carrying out executions are among the least safe for the public and the most dangerous for police. They have failed to execute their way into violence prevention. From a public safety perspective, the death penalty has been a pointless exercise in cruelty.
The death penalty persists not because it deters crime, but because some people just really want to execute other people. I also understand the DoJ is proposing to expand “death penalty eligible offenses.” Oh, goody.
I understand Witkoff and Kushner are on their way to Iran for new talks. No mention of J.D. Vance. And do see Iran War Has Drained U.S. Supplies of Critical, Costly Weapons by Eric Schmitt and Jonathan Swan at the New York Times. Trump is squandering our national arsenal of weapons at an alarming rate. Trump also seems to have grown bored with the war and doesn’t want to talk about it.
At The New Republic, see Malcolm Ferguson, Trump’s Latest Truth Social Rampage Proves He’s Hanging On by a Thread. A sample:
Just after midnight, Trump reposted a message from the Border Patrol union calling on “extreme leftist advocate” Senator Chuck Schumer to resign over his recent comments in which he said “nobody respects” ICE or Border Patrol. Just one minute after that, Trump delusionally reposted a random allegation that former President Obama staged a “seditious conspiracy” to overthrow the U.S. government in 2016. He then made four more posts about how Obama and Hillary Clinton should be charged with treason. This was all before 1:00 a.m.
I really am an American history nerd. We’ve had some presidents who were struggling with sub-optimal mental states during their tenure. Franklin Pierce, for example, lost his only child who hadn’t died in infancy — an 11 year old son — in a train accident shortly before his inauguration. He seemed under a cloud and drank too much during his single term. He is blamed tor pushing the nation toward secession and Civil War. In spite of being a northerner he supported slavery and thought the abolitionist movement was dangerous radicalism. But from all I have read about him he doesn’t seem to have been even half as irrational as Donald Trump.
Even if you're a history nerd, there is no one in our history as off-the-charts corrupt as Trump. In the future, he will be regarded in the same light as Nero or Caligulia, and I am not exaggerating. Especially given the lofty, world-leading ideals the US held from its inception. Which nonetheless got corrupted.
I'm enjoying the parodies I'm seeing from Iran. This will lighten you up, and plant an upbeat melody in your mind – Iran Embassy Mocks Trump With Animated Hormuz Video
It's based on this 30 year old song from France – Voyage, Voyage
Gas around here is over $5, or about + $1.30 pre war. Iran's oil production / distribution has been sufficiently destroyed that these prices are unlikely to lower, for a very long time. Long enough for Pete Hegseth to be blamed for them as the election draws near. Long enough for the voters to remember who caused them.
November is 7 months away. The dawn is coming.
Curly and Moe headed for Pakistan without Larry. Shouldn't change the act much. I do expect Iran to have a plan to allow the US to bow out and delegate negotiations to others. A plan like that would have no chance except that Trump is bleeding support, and the economy is a serious mess, which may be a global disaster in six months. That's the midterms – there's not much time to turn things around.
I agree that Trump is coming unglued, as evidenced by his public posts. MAGA will not care. Everyone else is a victim to Trump policies to vaying degeees. The longer we're in this mess, and the longer Trump republicans in Congress support him, the harder the blowback will be in November.
"MAGA will not care"
I've been spending way too much time over at breitbart, the maggy over there are hardcore cultists. They put on the act that they support trump 100% but you can see in the posts that the gas prices, inflation and ridiculous statements by diaper don is taking it's toll. The folks that run BB are busy trying to distract the maggys with stories about Swalwell, SPLC, etc. but the comments always go back to the war! Even those mouth breathers know the war is not going well for diaper don!
"There is something seriously wrong with that man"
His cousin Caroline Kennedy warned us about "the lesser" she said:
"He lacks any relevant government, financial, management, or medical experience," she said. "His views on vaccines are dangerous and willfully misinformed."
"I've known Bobby my whole life. We grew up together. It's no surprise that he keeps birds of prey as pets, because Bobby himself is a predator,"
Historically, I'd say 1919-20 (Wilson), 1987-88 (Reagan), and 2024 (Biden) are better analogies for Trump's current declining mental state. In those cases, people around the President recognized that he was mentally incapable of doing the job, but quietly covered up the situation as best they could.
In 1920, Wilson's wife became the Gatekeeper. It was a simpler time; the Cabinet was able to keep the Government running (but couldn't push any big new policies), and the Press was willing to go along with the cover-up.
In 1997-8, Reagan's wife (in)famously went to her astrologer for advice on how to run the Government, but it really didn't matter; Reagan had *always* been a figurehead, so his incapacitation was merely a PR problem. The Cabinet – and the GOP Machine behind them – ran the Government.
In 2024, Biden's Cabinet and staff kept the Government running reasonably well, but with no big – sorely needed – policy changes. (Note: Biden hadn't stroked out like Wilson, so he was still involved, but his staff – and wife – managed him, not the other way 'round). The question that's still open (AFAIK) is exactly how the Dem Party screwed up the election process. Did they obliviously imagine that Biden was able to win (and manage) a second term? Or did they know that it would blow up, and just used Biden to sidestep contentious primary campaigns and install Harris? Who knows.
The Trump situation is different from all those cases in some important ways:
– We're barely a year into Trump's term, rather than near the end; can't just keep this quiet until the next elections.
– Trump's personality makes it impossible to keep *anything* quiet; he craves attention, so he's constantly blabbing & tweeting whatever "thoughts" flit through his "mind". His mental decline is obvious to the country and the world.
– Trump's terrible management style means that all power is still concentrated in his own hands. The Cabinet includes too many incompetent idiots (RFK Jr!) to run the Government (though that would theoretically be easier without Trump's constant meddling).
– We're now in a[nother] damn (undeclared, unconstitutional) war. Trump's whims could get a *lot* of people killed.
Not sure how this ends. The (trad) GOP might try the 25th Amendment, but they know that would be a political disaster for them (diehard MAGAts will vote against whoever takes out Trump).
Joe Biden was visibly frail by 2024, but I’ve yet to see evidence that he was senile during his last year in office. He had trouble speaking sometimes, but that was a lifelong problem that frailty probably made worse. Trump, on the other hand, is just plain mentally scrambled. Whether it’s senility or some other issue combined with the fact that he was never all that bright to begin with I cannot say. As you say, Wilson had a stroke in 2019, but I don’t know if he showed any signs of mental impairment during his administration before that. Reagan’s Alzheimer’s diagnosis wasn’t announced until 1994, five years after he left office. and it was after that he withdrew from public life. Of course, it could have been known for some time before that. I know from my mother’s experience that there’s a period of time when the patient can be pretty normal in social situations even when short-term memory is gone. But five years? I don’t know. There are anecdotes suggesting his mental decline started during his presidency, but nothing certain.
IMO, "The Debate" (6/27/24) was clear evidence that Biden had lost too much mental agility to be a viable candidate for re-election; indeed, the Democratic Party came to the same conclusion, forcing him out of the race less than a month later.
I agree that Trump's decline is more drastic – and more dangerous – than Biden's (or Reagan's). Just as important, it can't be hidden (nobody can keep Trump from blabbing & tweeting). It's also qualitatively different; Trump still seems to have a lot of "energy" (though that's declining, too), so his "normal" bellicosity is becoming worse. Diplomacy was never his strong suit…
Biden could have easily completed his term without his mental state becoming an issue – if he hadn't insisted on running for re-election. Sadly, that choice doomed us all.
But now I see why you focused on Pierce – because the problems with his mental state weren't just at the tail end of his Presidency. And yes, that's a big difference )along with the other factors I noted above).
I disagree that the debate revealed mental decline. He was clearly exhausted and having trouble speaking. Again, he had a lifelong speech impediment that his frailty no doubt made worse. But if you looked at a transcript of what he actually said, he was making sense. Trump seemed hale and hardy and made no sense at all. But the frailty disqualified Biden as a candidate.
With Trump, there may not be a bottom. It never fails — just when you think he couldn't make things worse, or open up a new front of idiocy, hate or corruption, he does. He’s prolific at screwing things up. I fully expect that by the time his term is over, even with democrats in full control, one term, or maybe even two, will not be enough to undo all the damage he's done. It certainly won't be enough to regain the trust of our allies, nor enough time to convince the world to see the US as a serious actor again.
The democratic policy platform has to have a long view of things, of sustained policy goals, to address what may end up being decades of damage. What’s sad is many of us may not see “better” in our lifetimes.