“A guy who can’t admit that he lost a presidential election to Joe Biden is not going to be able to admit that he lost a war to the mullahs of Iran.” — Paul Krugman
This is the primary sticking point. Trump is not going to withdraw from Iran until he can claim he won. But he has already lost. The link goes to an interview of Paul Krugman by Greg Sargent that I highly recommend. The conversation covers why Trump is stuck in Iran, what that means for petroleum prices and the global economy, and why Wall Street has been slow to realize that we’re in for a long-term disaster here.
Meanwhile, the only reason gas prices haven’t gotten even higher is that reserves are not depleted. But reserves won’t hold out forever. If the Strait stays closed for months and months, which is highly likely as long as Trump is POTUS, we are going to be in for some really interesting times.
The lesson Trump never learned is that maybe you can ignore reality for a while, but reality ain’t gonna ignore you.
You’ve probably heard that Trump is withdrawing 5,000 troops from Germany, mostly because he’s pissed at Germany for not helping to fix the mess he made in Iran. And Trump continues to believe that the only reason we’re keeping troops in Europe is to protect Europe. He’s too dense to understand how this support the strategic purposes of the U.S. as well. The withdrawal hurts us more than it hurts Germany. Typical.
Why do I get the feeling that the 5000 number is a regular rotation of troops that was going to happen anyway and Trump claimed to have ordered it?
No, that's not what happened, according to the news stories. The 5,000 are not being replaced in Germany.
He's internalized Karl Rove's "we're an empire now, and we create our own reality," bit. He really thinks by saying we're the "HOTTEST" country in the world right now, people will believe that, and invest, because, what are going to do, not invest in the HOTTEST country on the planet? He thinks if he keeps saying he ended eleventy-nine wars, the Nobel Peace committee will have to give him the prize,
To me, it feels as if he's got half of the Republican strategy correct: make statements you want the public to believe, because a lot of chumps will believe them, when Fox News amplifies the claim; it doesn't matter if the statement is true, or not.
The other half, the part he's missing, is, "make the claim in line with a clear possible, reality." So, e.g. "the Biden crime family," since no crime is specified, it's possibly a true statement. But you can't whine about Democrats saying "affordability" when there is a real, honest-to-goodness, affordability crisis in housing, medical care, energy, and groceries. These things strip the wealth from people, meaning they don't have money to spend, which leads to recessions, and since they're all vital, people feel bitter watching their money fly away ever faster.
And, honestly, it's like, Incurious George W Bush is as stupid as a Republican can be, and get away with it. Trump was so much better at making outrageous claims, because he didn't have the smarts to realize how stupid he sounded, while W did have enough smarts to know when he sounded really stupid. But now, there are real problems, and Trump's only strategy is to say everything is perfect while he's President, and everything is someone else's fault.
Iran is Trump's Waterloo. I get stuck watching Fox News at the gym, cuz the machines I frequent are located near a TV so tuned. It was sickening a few days ago, watching 45 answer questions from too-friendly "reporters" in the Oval Office, with him insisting that "Iran badly wants a deal".
The real issue isn't Trump. It's the millions of morons who put this fool into power and who unquestioningly believe whatever nonsense he says.
And so we wait, for the economy to crater, the dead bodies to come home, the minds to wake up. One of my fears is that his nominee to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell, a suck up who failed the litmus test: "was the 2020 election rigged? " – will open the money spigot wide, to try and paper over the Iran disaster, and to generally make people happy before the November election. We're fortunate in that he doesn't have a lot of runway before November.
Things to celebrate: Janet Mills, Democratic governor of Maine dropped out in her bid to replace Senator Susan Collins, opening the way for Graham Platner, an oyster farmer, and non-sclerotic Democrat. The old guard needs to go.
No, that merely clears Senator Concerned's path to re-election.
Even if Ratzi Tattoo Dude does win, he'll just be Fetterman 2.0.
Trump's management of Covid was a disaster and was as bad as it was due to the fact that for months he tried to lie the facts and effects of it away, called it a "democrat hoax" and lost precious time in addressing it in ways that could have saved hundreds if not tens of thousands of lives. He showed us then he is devastatingly incapable of managing a crises. But "we" elected him anyway, and here we are.
So "we" shouldn't be surprised he's doing the same thing with the Iran war. Its how he "manages" a crises. He has no plan, nothing but lies, juvenile, cartoonish boasts and reacting in the moment, unnecessarily extending the war and the economic effects of it. All in service to his first priority, not the American people but his own fragile ego. Thus he treats our allies, as MAGA would — insulting, talking down and lying to nations and leaders who could come to our aid, not understanding these are serious, responsible and accountable people who don't have to and won't put up with it the way the cult, GOP and US media will. A serious American president wouldn't have gotten into this position in the first place, but having found themselves there would be working on an off ramp for the good of the American people and the world economy. They wouldn't be constantly lying about every aspect of it just to cover up their failure and personally prop up a weak and childish ego. With the Iran war Trump put himself in a political constrictor knot; the more he tries, in his own way, to get out of it, the tighter it gets. The more he continues to lie, the deeper the hole. The worst part of it is there is no one in his own party who will put him on front street and demand he stop lying and come up with a realistic exit strategy and end this war for the good of the country. Instead, they're supporting the lies. Is it any wonder his approval ratings on everything is heading towards the toilet?
Don't be fooled; there is nothing good about any of this. There is no pony buried in shit that we just have to keep digging through to find. If Trump and the republicans won't stop digging, here's to hoping the American people will, and vote these republicans en masse, out of office. But just know that, given how deep the damage is already, that would just be the beginning of the beginning. But we have to start somewhere, and I pray it starts there.
I saw a purported Trump tweet to the effect that if gas goes to $5, voters should still thank him and the GOP in November. The difference between $3 and $5 is less than pocket change to him. Where I was paying $20 to fill my tank, I recoil when the dial on the gas pump spins past $30. That's for a hybrid that delivers +40 MPG. The shock more than doubles when it's a heavy truck with a huge tank and mileage of less than 20 MPG. How do you like it now, MAGA?
Trump must know how devastating the recession could be and the price the GOP will pay in the midterms. Is it just pride that drives him?
What isn't discussed is that Iran had no delivery system to threaten the US with nukes. Israel, yes. Trump is protecting Bibi and his genocide. I am not suggesting it's OK if Israel gets nuked, but if their policies generate that kind of nuclear fury, maybe they should be more… inclusive and just. DJT does not think the US should bankroll NATO in Europe. (I disagree, but I understand.) But that same reasoning suggests that by Trump standards, Israel should stand alone.
War with Iran was never defensible as "America First." It might be explained if DJT thinks he's gonna get a big chunk of Gaza to build the Trump Taj Mahal times ten. Or if Bibi has incriminating proof of Trump's pedophilia. (There are reputed links between Epstein and Mossad.) I'd like to see the question asked in the MSM, "What did Israel promise (or threaten) in exchange for the US conducting this expensive war for them?"
Using Western metrics, one might expect that mass hunger in Iran will force the government to completely surrender. Consider the Siege of Leningrad, WWII. Germany had the city blockaded for two and a half years, starving a million and a half civilians in the process. (Today, that would be a war crime.) Note that the Russian military defenders did NOT starve. You can expect that Iran's military guard will have food. So I agree with Krugman that time is on Iran's side.
Naturally, Trump is trying to punish NATO countries that have not bailed the US out in the war with Iran. Russia can't celebrate yet – they are so badly weakened by years of war with Iran that invading a NATO country is not likely. I expect an incursion in one of the smaller former members of the Soviet Union in the next two years to test if NATO will mobilize without the US. The response will guide plans for actual conquests further down the road. If Europe acts like a single unit, Russia can't win. If NATO minus the US wimps out, Russia can take nations one by one until the world unites against that aggression. There's a good chance the US can rejoin NATO (in spirit – we won't have officially withdrawn by 2028 because it takes an act of Congress) and partially redeem ourselves before the russian conquest starts, especially if Ukraine holds out.
"Even if gas goes to $5 voters should still thank him"
Jedi mind trick – "those are not the droids you're looking for"