Democrats are in widespread agreement about something — that the DNC “autopsy” of the 2024 presidential election released yesterday is a mess. It’s full of typos and doesn’t explain anything. I tried skimming through the thing and decided it wasn’t worth it, since it seemed more interested in reviewing the last 20 years of politics than looking hard at 2024. It’s so bad some people are calling for DNC Chair Ken Martin to resign.
According to Politico, the only people who liked it are the bleeping centrists.
Prominent centrist groups that argue the party has drifted too far to the left found validation in the report.
“Ken Martin’s autopsy of the autopsy was excellent!” said Liam Kerr, co-founder of the centrist WelcomePAC. “After spending a decade accepting all edits from every progressive interest group, better to just delete all DNC strategy docs and admit we need to start from scratch. Admitting incompetence is much better than denial.”
Jonathan Cowan, president of center-left group Third Way, suggested the report was shelved because it would anger progressives. “I think it’s very clear why this report was buried, because as it says in the opening, it calls for Democrats to return to the vital center,” Cowan said. “Now I understand why a lot of very Twitter-friendly, super liberal DNC staff didn’t want this to come out.”
Naturally, this makes me hate the report I haven’t read even more.
As soon as the autopsy was released (or possibly leaked; it doesn’t seem to have been finished) I started seeing alerts that the word “Gaza” doesn’t appear in it anywhere. It also leaves out any mention of Joe Biden’s decision to run again, which led to the last-minute switch to Kamala Harris as the front runner.
Then the “Strength in Numbers” guy, G. Elliott Morris, wrote a post headlined The real reason Democrats lost in 2024 that is worth reading. After dismissing the autopsy as “a lot of pundit conventional wisdom” he wrote,
But the biggest problem is that the autopsy straight up ignores the major reasons Harris lost in 2024. Yes, it’s bad enough that the report doesn’t mention that party bosses failed to coordinate an early exit for Joe Biden, who was too unpopular to win. And there is no mention of Israel/Gaza, low turnout in the cities, and nothing on Harris’s race or gender. But this is a data-driven site, so I want to really focus in on what the numbers can tell us.
When we boot up the data, it’s obvious the main reason Harris lost — and the reason I am going to explore here, at this website, it being a data-driven website — is that 2024 simply had too much inflation-induced anti-incumbent sentiment for the incumbent party to overcome. This is curiously missing from its main diagnosis. The word “inflation” isn’t mentioned in the autopsy a single time (except in the context of inflation-adjusted ad spending).
He then presents a lot of data, with a chart I don’t entirely understand, that argues you could pretty much have predicted the last several presidential elections based on two factors. “Political scientists have been pointing out for decades that you can predict presidential elections reasonably well using just two pieces of information: how voters feel about the incumbent president, and how voters feel about the economy,” he wrote.
I confess I didn’t pick up on the discontent about the economy in 2024, since it seemed to be coming mostly from the Right. I’m not sure most Americans realized that the post-Covid inflation was a global phenomenon that Biden didn’t cause. And I knew that bringing down inflation isn’t easy, especially bringing down inflation without causing a recession. And Biden, with the help of the Federal Reserve board, was doing it masterfully. In October 2024 The Economist really did call the U.S. economy the envy of the world. But I guess not that many voters read The Economist. They weren’t seeing enough improvement fast enough, so they put Trump in charge.
And it’s also the case that I had no idea how frail Joe Biden had become until that June 2024 debate. But surely other people had seen it. To those who now say that Kamala Harris ran a bad campaign, G. Elliott Morris writes that she actually did a bit better than the data predicted. “In a sense, then, the surprise of the election is that Harris did as well as she did, considering the prevailing factors against her,” Morris wrote. But it might be that by 2024 the die was cast.
Regarding Gaza, I have read that the the Muslim vote did tip Michigan to Trump, after several Muslim leaders foolishly endorsed Trump. I wonder what they think of those endorsements now. Whether Gaza made any real difference in any other state I do not know; possibly not.
I have noticed there is a subset of Democratic activists for whom Gaza is The Only Legitimate Issue, however.
I’m watching the primary campaigns in my congressional district, NY 17, for the House seat currently held by Republican Mike Lawler. There are three front-runners for the Democratic nomination, all women. I don’t have a sense that any one of these is the favorite. But the arguments for and against these candidates in social media boil down to “We have to vote for X because she’s the most electable, as the others are too far left” versus “We have to vote for Y because she’s the only one not taking money from pro-Israel groups.” What I’m not hearing is how any of these candidates stand on the economy and health care. Lawler made a lot of noise last year about how he wasn’t going to vote to cut Medicaid and other safety net programs, and then he voted to cut Medicaid and the other programs. Hello? .
And as much as I hate what’s happening in Gaza, the Gaza purists are starting to annoy me as much as the centrism worshipers.
In other news:
Tulsi Gabbard is out as National Security Director. No big surprise. Reuters is reporting that she was pushed into resigning, but that story is behind a paywall.
Kilmar Abrego Garcia is in the news again. This is the Associated Press:
A federal judge on Friday dismissed a human smuggling case against Kilmar Abrego Garcia, finding that the Justice Department’s pursuit of criminal charges was designed to punish him for challenging his mistaken deportation to El Salvador last year.
The ruling amounted to an extraordinary rebuke of a Justice Department that under President Donald Trump has repeatedly been accused of targeting defendants for political purposes. The Trump administration touted the charges against Abrego Garcia last year at a press conference in which then-Attorney General Pam Bondi declared, “This is what American justice looks like.”
“The evidence before this court sadly reflects an abuse of prosecuting power,” U.S. District Judge Waverly Crenshaw, in Nashville, Tenn., said in his ruling granting Abrego Garcia’s motion to dismiss for “selective or vindictive prosecution.” Without Abrego Garcia’s “successful lawsuit challenging his removal to El Salvador, the government would not have brought this prosecution.”
So will Trump’s DoJ leave the poor guy alone now? Or will it come up with some other bogus charge?
Well, we can see – without reading – the wreckage that's got to go in the Democratic Party. I hope it's only a draft. There's no excuse for typos.
OT, the great Barry Blitt's homage to Stephen Colbert. It's a link to a cartoon in Facebook, not sure if you can see it. It shows Colbert hang gliding above New York City, floating actually, with the caption "Onward and Upward". Blitt alone is a good reason to get the New Yorker (I'm not a subscriber).
I am tired and disgusted with establishment Democrats who take AIPAC money and stay bought by defending Israel for murdering civilians with weapons stamped 'Made in USA." I do not think I'm a purist – I see plenty of issues across the spectrum. The common denominator is big money in politics. It protects Israel, it protects Big Pharma and the Medical Insurance lobby, the Military Industrial Complex, Big Oil, the anti-environmentalists, etc not to mention billionaire pedophiles and their connected friends.
I DO fault Harris for NEVER criticizing Netanyahu for the genocide that was brewing Such a stand would have gained her votes in some quarters and cost her votes in others. How it would have panned out I'm not sure.
Authentic candidates are in short supply. Where they do exist, they do well. Look to NYC for an example. The party needs to STOP trying to represent the working class and the 1%. The ultra-rich are out to skin the workers alive. Listen to Bernie, OK?
Any 'autopsy' that ignores the class war that exixts is a whitewash, trying to find a fo formula for electoral success that won't divorce the party machine or the elected candidate from the hog trough of post-candidacy rewards. Like a job on K-street. The Democratic Party machine and the candidates are STILL trrying to have it both ways, declaring loyalty to the worker while chasing the money from the top one percent.
*Prominent centrist groups that argue the party has drifted too far to the left found validation in the report.*
This always amazes me. I realize the US political scene is much different than here in Canada but we would consider the Democratic Party to be a bit to the right of our Conservative Party. Of course much of the Republican Party would be classified as raving loonies who howel at full moons.
I am surprised Gabbard lasted this long. Her middle name is probably Cassandra and the Orange Julious is not known for liking to hear conflicting views.
The FBI is working on a jaywalking charge for Kilmar Abrego Garcia as I type.
A lot of people say they saw a lot of stuff at the first debate, but neither "frailty" nor a lack of ability was seen. What was seen was a man who *way* overestimated his endurance, and had a stutter.
If you want to say why Biden had no chance after the first debate, you should truly mention that Republicans lie, about everything, without any regard to the evidence, and, that their constant attacks on Joe Biden's age just so happened to show strongly at a time when he was going to hit a debate stage, exhausted, and trying to make coherent statements.
All Trump had to do was lie, which he always does; he doesn't need facts, he doesn't need truth, he doesn't even need to make believable statements… they were going to sing his praises, no matter what. But Biden had to speak well. And had a flood of lies to deal with. And he does have a stutter, which was on display during the debate.
You didn't notice his stutter, if you don't have a speech impediment. A stutter isn't a person saying stu stu stu stutter. It's a neurological issue where a person won't be able to coordinate both speaking, and word seeking, at the same time. It's a person finding the word stutter, and having to find another word they won't stu stu stutter through. It means you have to
talk
more
slowly (didn't slush the S good going!)
as you (don't say pi pi pick)
SELECT
your words, based upon (don't say "what")
the words that
get
your meaning across. And don't make you stutter.
Joe Biden looked like an exhausted stutterer in the first debate. That's all. Oh, people said he looked too old, because they don't like hanging out with old people. Yes, old people look old, and there's a lot of ageist bigots in the USA, and they said he looked brain dead because he was quiet at first, and then, didn't complete a specific answer quickly enough (as a stutterer might).
The big trouble was, he was too trusting; he thought people would care about the truth. And he was way, way, way, too trusting in America to be willing to throw Trump in the trashcan of history. Had he understood that America is fundamentally a nation of images and vibes, carefully created via social media ads, he probably would have known better than to run for re-election.
Biden's frailty didn't doom him. Ageist bigotry, and high octane Republican hate sunk him, just as it sunk Hillary Clinton.
Those people weren’t watching the debate I saw. Here’s a review from the Canadian press.
We only have two political parties, and one represents the modern-day robber barons with international ties. Your only choice, if you and yours, are not in with the robber barons is to vote for the Democratic Party.
This was caused by the SCOTUS vote on Citizens United giving corporations way too much power to buy politicians. Remember what Krugman wrote. 40% of American Corporations are owned by internationals. Their interests are usually to profit from fleecing the American consumer not for their welfare. We can see daily their controlling influence on the republican party. These national and international robber barons do not intend to cede this power. We see daily they will not refrain from devious, corrupt, illegal, or other nefarious ways to stay in power. Unless you and yours are of the robber baron class, you and yours are the intended victim. This robber baron category includes the Epstein Class, who they continue to provide political cover for. There is no limit what they will do to cater to the fetishes of the robber barons.
Sure, there are many corporations that operate truly in the public interest. Unfortunately, they are unable or unwilling to control the ones that don't.
As to the DNC it is what it is. Like AARP more a facade than a true advocate for older people. AARP showed their true colors advocating for Medicare Part D which was a welfare program for drug companies and the insurance industry under the guise of eldercare.
Real affordability for basic human needs and freedom from blatant political corruption are obvious winning issues for Democrats. It appears the DNC wants to ignore the obvious. Russia was able to infiltrate the NRA quite successfully. Just because an organization uses an N for National in its title does not mean it operates in that way. Readable, typo free, and quality messaging indicates it might be truly what its title implies. If at first you fail, how about an apology and a redo.
The NYT published a reading assignment for the DNC today. Let's start with:
Talking about jobs up the organizational hierarchy, head football coaches at the high school level normally get more hiring scrutiny than school superintendents. Now read what David Leonhardt writes regarding job retention of pro-level coaches.
And that is for the job of a game coach, albeit the game judged most frequently as our favorite national obsession. President of the country has some really large effects on our daily lives which can include our very existence. All but the most talented athletes' fate rests in the hands of those pro football coaches, those with perceptual motor skill vastly superior to what most of us even dreamed of having. To the rest of us but a game watched for entertainment with no significant other existential value. No value except we really care who coaches our favorite football teams.
That we should care about the way we choose both is a no-brainer you would think. To think about how best to choose either is a challenge most lack the talent to even attempt. The authors here show amazing skills and have what the DNC seems to lack. Take a read and see if it fits for your world. I hope the DNC reads it.
Opinion | How Democrats Can Improve Their Odds, According to a Nobel Economist – The New York Times
40% of American Corporations are owned by internationals. Their interests are usually to profit from fleecing the American consumer not for their welfare.
When I think of America and how the government allows its citizens to be treated by rapacious corporations and wealthy individuals, it reminds me of that scene in The Matrix where a red-pilled Neo sees "reality," looking out on a vast field of "people" encased in pods, captured and existing only for their mental lifeblood or something. Their only value was in service to the machine. Reminds me of the what the relationship between American consumers and the wealthy has gotten too.
Of the world's billionaires, I would imagine a not insignificant portion of their wealth is owed to their corporations and businesses being allowed to take advantage of American consumers in ways that are not even legal in other western nations, and even some "third world" countries, thanks to legislators and institutions paid off to allow them carte blanche access to whatever wealth working people create. We overpay for pharmaceuticals, sold food products made unhealthy to increase profit, overpay health insurance companies for care they are allowed to deny, for profit, pay usurious rates for financial products, and a myriad of other things. Finance and private equity have few restraints on the ways they are allowed to get over on consumers. We have laws against price gouging, but they're rarely, if ever, invoked. When the GOP says as “conservatives” they won’t let the government stand in the way of “business,” this is essentially what they mean. They’re not going to get in the way of these corporations and billionaires from taking advantage of consumers. The value of the American working class is only as a profit center to the wealthy and the legislators paid off by lobbyists to keep them that way. Its why working people can't have nice things, go bankrupt when they get sick, struggle with "affordability" and can't retire. Its why foreclosures and homelessness are up. Much of this state of affairs was in place before Citizens United, which only put all of it on overdrive. When they piously lecture about the "American Dream" its as a mockery of those who work for a living, and that's the vast majority of us. Ironically, this is where we find ourselves at the 250th anniversary of the nation’s founding. I can’t imagine this is what the Foundrs envisioned.
Right now, unfortunately, in a two party system, we have only one option, the democratic party. Its controlled too, but its not in 100% lockstep with the billionaires, and there's an opportunity to remake it as an institution that can be more representative of the interests. Its not there yet, and its a long term effort. Look no further than Ken Martin's embarrassing shenanigans with the 2024 "autopsy" to understand what we're up against.
POLITICS, n. A strife of interests masquerading as a contest of principles. The conduct of public affairs for private advantage.
(Ambrose Bierce, The Devil's Dictionary)
DULLARD, n. A member of the reigning dynasty in letters and life. The Dullards came in with Adam, and being both numerous and sturdy have overrun the habitable world. The secret of their power is their insensibility to blows; tickle them with a bludgeon and they laugh with a platitude. The Dullards came originally from Boeotia, whence they were driven by stress of starvation, their dullness having blighted the crops. For some centuries they infested Philistia, and many of them are called Philistines to this day. In the turbulent times of the Crusades they withdrew thence and gradually overspread all Europe, occupying most of the high places in politics, art, literature, science and theology. Since a detachment of Dullards came over with the Pilgrims in the Mayflower and made a favorable report of the country, their increase by birth, immigration, and conversion has been rapid and steady. According to the most trustworthy statistics the number of adult Dullards in the United States is but little short of thirty millions, including the statisticians. The intellectual centre of the race is somewhere about Peoria, Illinois, but the New England Dullard is the most shockingly moral.
(Ambrose Bierce, The Devil's Dictionary)
Though the discontent about the economy may have been "coming from the right", it clearly resonated with many politically unaffiliated people and with younger voters, was being downplayed by mainstream democrats, and had an impact on the votes by those groups. As did many other memes that came from the right and received little to no pushback by Dem leaders – for several decades (or at least none that penetrated the consciousness and media consumption of "non-political" folks).
IMO, Gaza really was a significant factor in Harris' loss, and not just because of Muslims in Michigan, but more because of "TikTok voters" shocked by video of the carnage in Gaza.
Harris got 6 Million fewer votes in 2024 than Biden got in 2020; more surprisingly, the total vote Presidential count in 2024 was 3 Million less than in 2020.
Who would do that (not vote)??? I have a hard time imagining such irresponsible behavior… among adults. I assume that most of those non-voters were young people – "TikTok voters" – who got motivated to vote in 2020 to get Trump out of office, but then became so disillusioned that they just gave up… on voting, on Government, on the USA.
I'm old enough to understand that without supermajorities in Congress, Democrats weren't able to fix much. I was pleasantly surprised at the legislation that Biden managed to push through ("Green New Deal Lite but at least a Good Start"!). Sadly, most of those programs – absolutely necessary for reversing our decline – could only make a difference in the medium/long run, so in 2024, Democrats really didn't have much in the way of accomplishments to brag about.
OTOH, Foreign Policy really is the responsibility of the White House, and Biden's inability/refusal to ever say NO! to Bibi became an obvious problem. This was of course made worse by Chuck Shumer & other AIPAC Democrats.
That might not have mattered (politically), if millions of (young?) Americans hadn't actually seen daily footage – on TikTok – of Israel dropping bombs (Made in USA!) on Gaza, from jets (Made in USA!) bought with $B of US Tax$ given to Israel by Congress.
And then (AIPAC?) Democrats join the GOP in voting to force TikTok to sell its US assets to a bunch of US Zillionaires…
Exit poll data says otherwise. If anything Gaza may have caused people to not vote for either Harris or Trump, which wouldn’t show up in data.
That's pretty much what I'm suggesting – that many of the people who voted for Biden in 2020 but stayed home in 2024 were [de]motivated by anger at Democrats for supporting Israel in Gaza. And yeah, that wouldn't show up in Exit Polls because those people weren't *at* the polls.
The Green Party vote doubled between 2020-2024 – from 402K to 860K – and most of that probably came from people who had voted for Biden in 2020. Heck, one of them was *me*.
I voted – enthusiastically – for Biden, because I viewed his strong focus on Infrastructure as our only chance to rebuild the USA before China takes our place as #1. He tried – and partly succeeded – and I applaud him for that. I had hoped that he would eventually get pissed off at Bibi and turn off the pipeline (weapons & $) to Israel, but he's an "honest politician" – he stayed bought.
I never heard anything from Harris about what she actually wanted to do beyond just being "the first Black Woman President". Her "platform" seemed to be all Status Quo, Business As Usual, including continued blind support for Israel. Our country is *broken*, and it was already broken before Trump came back in and started breaking what's left. Harris had no plan to fix the USA, because she couldn't even see that it's broken.
I didn't exactly "vote against Harris because Gaza", but I'm completely fed up with Israel. I won't vote for AIPAC Democrats.
She had a lot proposals for the economy that would have pushed the nation into a more progressive direction, although nothing earth-shaking like Medicare for All. If she'd had more time she might have had more to offer.
Regarding the impact of Gaza on the elections, I learned a long time ago not to believe things just because I wanted to believe them. No data, no effect. Please go back to the post and find the link to the Strength in Numbers post by G. Elliott Morris, and read it.