There are talks going on regarding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, but the United States is not part of those talks. Instead, they are going on between Iran and Oman. And what gets decided could be the resolution to Trump’s War. From the New York Times:
Iran and Oman are closing in on an agreement to reopen shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, according to Iranian and American officials, but if the accord goes into effect it could come at a high price — ratifying Tehran’s control over what, before the war, was an open, international waterway.
As described by officials familiar with the emerging accord, vessels heading into the Persian Gulf will transit a channel controlled by Iran, and close to its coast. Ships leaving the Gulf will travel on a channel near Oman.
Iranian officials say that while there will be no tolls charged the agreement includes a “service fee” to cover the environmental impact of the shipping, security for the cargo ships and tankers, and staffing. Revenues would be divided equally between Iran and Oman, two Iranian officials said.
I understand this is an “interim” agreement, not a permanent resolution, but if the “interim” lasts as long as Trump is in the White House I wouldn’t argue about it. In the short run this might be the best resolution we’re going to get. If this agreement opens the Strait and gets everyone to back off what seems to be turning into a much wider war, I say take it. Yes, it would leave Iran with some big, fat leverage it didn’t have before Trump started the war. But is there a way to force Iran to give up that leverage? And if so, what is it? Shooting missiles at them doesn’t seem to be working. And we’re running ut of missiles.
But where does the Administration stand?
But a U.S. official familiar with the negotiations said on Monday that the Iranian account was “not accurate,” and said that any “temporary” routes established through the strait would not involve approvals or permissions by Iran, and would involve no tolls.
Yeah, good luck with an agreement regarding Iran that doesn’t involve Iran. But that was yesterday. Today Trump is saying that he wants this deal to be made immediately, or he’ll shoot what’s left of our missiles at them. But Trump also appears to believe that he, or somebody representing the U.S., is an active participant in these talks.
“It’s not very complex. We’re talking about the strait, the opening of the strait, having it open, literally by tomorrow. Completely open,” Trump said. The president claimed that would be the first phase before proceeding to denuclearization talks.
Ok, so?
But Esmaeil Baghaei, spokesperson for Iran’s foreign ministry, told reporters Monday that Iran was not currently in talks with the U.S. He said Iran was in the final stages of discussions with Oman to open the strait.
In response, Trump called Iran’s leadership “unbelievably duplicitous,” claiming in a social media post before the press conference they’d begged him to restart talks.
By now Iran’s leadership is well aware that what Trump says and objectively verifiable realty do not live in the same zip code.
The New York Times article goes on to say that opening the Strait would be a benefit to Trump politically, as it would take a lot of pressure off the economy. It would do nothing about Iran’s nuclear stockpile, but let’s be frank — nothing good can come from talks with Iran as long as the Trump Regime is involved. It would be better to just get the U.S. completely out of it, at least until we have a real President again. But getting Trump to shut his yap about Iran is probably more than we can hope for.
In other news — There are a mess of primaries today, including the Democratic nomination for a U.S. Senate seat from Michigan, being contested between Haley Stevens and Abdul El-Sayed that’s been in the news quite a bit. I’m rooting for El-Sayed but making no predictions.
Paul Waldman at The Cross Section has an essay on electability that I heartily endorse. And there’s another good read by David Graham at The Atlantic, Americans Are Turning on Trump.
Are you a fan (or enough of a fan) of TH White's "The Once And Future King"?
Your "wart" of the deal reminds me of how he described the pre-excaliber King Arthur/"Wart." And if I may say, I think you touched the very face of perfection in using that description.
And it also brings to mind Monty Python's complaints about King Arthur. "Strange women laying in ponds is no basis for a system of government! If I said I was emperor because some moistened bint lobbed a scimitar at me, they'd put me away!"
(I assume "bint" is horrible, but too English to sound appropriately horrible.)
I'm too heavy in the Medical Marijuana to say anything truly meaningful, but, I do hope that this comment strikes you as sensible – because, again, yes, Trump is exactly why "chosen one" is a bad, bad, bad idea for governance. And he is much, much, more "the Wart," than the budding King Arthur.
I'm a fan of the Arthurian legends in all their forms, but I was trying to riff off "The Art of the Deal."
If you look at a map, Iran and Oman are on opposite sides of the Strait. It just looks like two well-situated parties agreeing to corner the market and charge whatever they can, reaping a bonanza for both. Iran is well on its way to become a big player on the world stage, something it has desired for years, thanks to President Loser.
Relevant to the post are reports that a merchant cargo ship was struck in the Straight of Hormuz today off Oman by what seems to be a drone. A ship in the Red Sea was sunk by an 'explosives=laden' ship. It's not clear who holds the leash of the forces that are threatening shipping. It is clear that the US has no power to deter the attacks/ IF Iran and Oman can call off the dogs and make it stick, they are in control.
This is going to be unacceptable to Trump/ I'm reminded that Trump had to be dragged from the stage at the Soccer Finals. He has to be the bride at every wedding. Trump DOES have the power to close the Straight, which means he can piss off pretty much the whole world and get nothing for it. (Unless you crank into the equation the damage it will potentially do to the GOP in the midterms.)
Since it's the most stupid thing anyone can do, I expect Trump will. Also, Trump will be under pressure from Bibi to neutralize Iran militarily and economically. Opening the Straight with Iran in charge strengthens their hand in the region. I am not an expert and there are no polls from the region, but the 'average' person in Saudi Arabia, Oman, UAE, Egypt and Kuwait is outraged by what Israel is doing in Gaza. (Label that opinion.) Iran is going to come out stronger (politically, economically, and militarily) in the long run than they were before the war, possibly with the means to build the bomb.
I'm not jumping up and down with joy. A crazy theocracy is not a good thing. Bibi and the IDF are evil. Trump is bat-shit crazy. I can't figure out who I like less but maybe Iran can be reasoned with after they are not dealing with Trump. Maybe the US Congress will put conditions on aid to Israel and get the Israeli Gestapo out of Gaza and Lebanon. We need players in key spots who are not committed to genocide and eager to deploy a mushroom cloud to the near horizon of Tehran or Tel Aviv.
"He has to be the bride at every wedding." Brilliant.
It's borrowed from Alice Roosevelt, daughter of Teddy Roosevelt, who was a hoot. Theodore Roosevelt was quoted as saying, “I can do one of two things. I can be President of the United States or I can control Alice Roosevelt. I cannot possibly do both.”
Of her father, Alice said: “My father always wanted to be the corpse at every funeral, the bride at every wedding, and the baby at every christening”
Fence sitting Susan Collins is reported aground on the no-Blanche side. As to the rest of the lot, we will see. November is looming for more than Collins. Others may opt not to risk the lingering stench one will wear by wandering on the Blanche side of the fence.
If Collins has any hope of getting another term she has to persuade Maine voters that she really truly is independent, although whether Maine voters will keep falling for that one seems unlikely to me.
I strongly agree with Maha's OP – "…nothing good can come from talks with Iran as long as the Trump Regime is involved. It would be better to just get the U.S. completely out of it…", and therefore, the best thing the USA can now do there is just STFU and GTFO.
Getting the USA out of the way of the negotiations drastically reduces Iran's justification for high "tolls" through the Strait. As long as we were involved, those tolls were essentially a kind of Reparations for the damage done by our attacks (a very reasonable demand, IMO). Now, Oman represents the RoW (Rest of the World) in the negotiations with Iran, and the RoW won't want to pay for the mess we made.
Thrilled that Dr El-Sayed squeaked out a victory in Michigan, for the US Senate.