The weekend polling for New York’s 23rd district congressional race is, um, inconsistent. Hoffman is ahead by either a landslide or a hair. One poll says independents favor Hoffman, 52-30; another says independents favor Owens, 43-37.

Nate Silver says there are a large number of unpollable factors that could push the race either way. “Not only will I not be surprised if either Democrat Bill Owens or Conservative Doug Hoffman wins on Tuesday — I will not be surprised if one of them wins by a substantial, possibly even double-digit margin,” he says.

But see also this chart on who is contributing to what candidate in NY-23. Owens is getting campaign money from contributors within the district; Hoffman is not. Interesting.

The New Jersey Corzine-Christie race is supposed to be too close to call. Nate Silver says he has a “relatively clear answer” for New Jersey, but as of this writing he hasn’t said what it is. Stay tuned.