Just noting quickly that the U.S. has seized an Iranian cargo ship while preparing for talks. This is from the New York Times:

A U.S. Navy destroyer on Sunday attacked and seized an Iranian cargo ship that defied an American blockade of Iran’s ports, President Trump said, posing a fresh threat to the fragile cease-fire that is set to expire this week.

Mr. Trump announced the attack hours after a White House official said the U.S. was dispatching a high-level delegation including Vice President JD Vance to peace talks in Pakistan, even as Iranian state media said Tehran had not yet agreed to a meeting.

What is the bleeping point? Does Trump still think he can bully Iran into whatever it is he’s asking them to do? The Strait was open, but Iran closed it again because of the U.S. Navy blockade.

Update: The story thus far — Late last week it appeared that tensions with Iran were at least de-escalating a bit. There was a cease fire of sorts, although Israel wasn’t abiding by it. Iran said the Strait of Hormuz was open. There was opportunity for more negotiation for whatever Trump wants from the situation, which changes by the hour. But he probably could have gotten something that he could call a win. Things might have settled down, albeit with Iran in a much stronger position than before and continuing to control the Strait of Hormuz.

Well, bleep that. Trump had to escalate the situation for no discernible reason. The U.S. blockade of Iranian ports continued, so Iran closed the Strait again. The U.S. attacked and seized an Iranian cargo ship. and now Iran says talks are off. Al Jazeera:

Islamabad, Pakistan – Iran has signaled that it has no plans to send negotiators to Islamabad for a new round of talks with the United States, threatening Pakistan’s plans for multiday negotiations between the warring nations less than 48 hours before a fragile ceasefire is set to expire.

Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said on Monday Washington had “violated the ceasefire from the beginning of its implementation”, citing the US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz since April 13, and the overnight capture of an Iranian container ship by the US military as breaches of the truce as well as international law.

He warned that if the US and Israel launched aggression again, Iranian forces “will respond accordingly”, while reaffirming that Tehran’s 10-point proposal, submitted before the first round of Islamabad talks, remained its basis for any negotiation.

“The US is not learning its lessons from experience,” Baghaei said, “and this will never lead to good results.”

The enormous majority of U.S. voters would have been content with gas prices coming back down as a “good result.” Now gas prices are shooting up again. And after this I don’t see Iran opening the Strait again until the U.S. completely withdraws. Which Trump/Hegseth won’t want to do, because that would be an admission of defeat. I suspect we’re at an impasse that could last a while.

Paul Krugman writes that if the Strait remains closed for very much longer — say, another three months — we’re looking at a global recession. It’s already hit Asian countries very hard. See The Forces of Scarcity Hitting Asia May Soon Spread Across the World in the New York Times. It could be a lot like the inflation-inducing shortages during the Covid pandemic, just without the masks and social distancing. And, of course, the entire world will blame the U.S.

Way to go, Donnie.

So the Strait of Hormuz is closed again, I take it. It was open, but as I write this on Saturday evening it’s closed. Iran has fired on some tankers that were underway, thinking they were safe. And this happened because the United States is continuing to blockade the shipping lanes. Why are we blockading the shipping lanes? I have no idea. And the Wall Street Journal is running a headline saying the U.S. is preparing to board Iran-linked ships. I can only read the first paragraph —

The U.S. military is preparing in coming days to board Iran-linked oil tankers and seize commercial ships in international waters, according to U.S. officials, expanding its naval crackdown beyond the Middle East.

Why are we doing that? Maybe the WSJ explains it behind the paywall. It makes no sense to me.

Paul Krugman complains that Trump can’t even surrender right.

When you’re losing a war, but it’s not an existential defeat, your country, your government can continue pretty much as before. Aside from the humiliation, there’s a well-established technique, which is to declare victory and pull out. But it appears that Trump can’t even pull that off. …

…The United States has started imposing a blockade on Iran, which hurts the Iranians. It does give them a reason to seek a deal, but only if they get something out of it. So if allowing ships to start carrying oil and LNG and fertilizer and helium out of the Gulf allows them to sell their own oil again and to import food, which apparently is an important issue for Iran, then that’s a deal that can be done. It will, in practice, be a strategic defeat for the United States, but something that the Trump administration could try to spin as a victory.

But in order to get that, you have to actually deliver on that deal. You can claim that you’re winning and that they’re surrendering, not us, but you have to actually deliver on the deal. What Trump tried to do was to say, great, they’re opening up the strait, but meanwhile, we’re going to continue our blockade. And also, they have promised that we can have the uranium, which they had not.

That doesn’t work. It’s just basic logic. Why would the Iranians agree to a deal if they don’t get a lifting of the US embargo, don’t get their ability to sell oil and their ability to import food back? If that’s what’s going to happen, then you might as well keep the strait blocked. So what was this supposed to be? What was the idea? What was the thinking?

Krugman wonders if Trump is able to face the reality that he screwed up and lost a war. I suspect he can’t. IMO the continuing blockade only makes sense if Trump seriously thinks he can still entirely bend Iran to his will if he is just badass enough. He can’t admit he lost.

This is from Politico, published yesterday — Trump keeps claiming victory in Iran. Our new poll shows voters aren’t buying it.

New results from The POLITICO Poll show that support for military action is weak — just 38 percent of Americans back the strikes — and views remain largely unchanged from the days following the joint U.S.-Israel strikes, even as the administration has now had weeks to make its case.

This was predictable. And I don’t see anything happening that will improve public opinion. The best thing for Trump would have been to just accept Iran opening the Strait and withdraw, and maybe try to keep talking to them about the uranium. And then hope that by the midterms voters will have other things on their minds. But no. And more and more voters are finally realizing that Trump is nothing but a big bag of l’excrément, as the French might say.

Elsewhere — you’ve probably heard about the bombshell exposé of Kash Patel at The Atlantic. Here’s a gift link — The FBI Director Is MIA by  Sarah Fitzpatrick. Patel is threatening to sue.

See also Trump seeks ‘resolution’ of his $10bn lawsuit against IRS, spurring concern at Al Jazeera. Yeah, he still expects the IRS to just give him $10 billion. Because he wants it.

I can’t say I understand the new 10-day cease fire and how it came about. Trump seems to want to take credit, but I doubt it had anything to do with him or his crack[ed] “negotiating” team of Vance, Kushner, and Witkoff. Iran says the Strait of Hormuz is open for shipping, but Trump says his blockade of Iran is still in force. Whatever. Josh Marshall is calling it a massive strategic win for Iran.

There are also reports that the sailors and troops stationed near Iran are not getting enough to eat.

One image shows a single dreary tortilla alongside a lump of what looks to be pulled pork or chicken. The other shows two horrid-looking slabs of meat alongside a pile of sliced carrots.

And the food is starting to run low. Dan F., a former Marine whose daughter is serving aboard the USS Tripoli, toldUSA Today that his daughter reported no fresh produce, low stock of hygiene products, and rationing of all non-perishable food.

For the normally hyper-competent U.S. military to fail at basic logistics is pretty shocking. I blame Pentagon Pete. He may have fired too many key people because they happened to be Black or women.

Speaking of incompetence, do read What I Saw Inside the Kennedy Center by Josef Palermo at The Atlantic. Palermo spend ten months working in the Kennedy Center for the Arts after Trump took it over. Palermo was hired to organize art exhibits in the Center. But most of the people Trump brought in to run the Center, including the head guy Richard Grenell, apparently have no interest or background in the arts and got their jobs because they were politically connected. Grenell wasn’t even there much of the time, although he must have been drawing a fat salary. The incompetence Palermo describes is staggering.

See also Donald Trump’s Incompetence Is Costing Him the Country by Matt Bai at Rolling Stone. I hope it’s not behind a paywall; I think RS gives you a few freebies. It does seem to me that people in the U.S. are catching on to what a total vacuum Trump really is. The rest of the world had it figured out awhile back. And of course it isn’t just Trump; his cabinet is incompetent also. Trump doesn’t understand what competence is, I don’t think.

Paul Krugman notes that “The long-running University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment just hit its lowest point ever recorded.” Ever recorded, mind you. And Krugman questions why that would be true, as the economy has been worse. After considering what some other economists have said, Krugman says “I believe that the current extremely negative sentiment is a result of Americans’ correct sense that they have been lied to.”

Trump is still telling people that the economy is booming and they should be grateful to him for it. I take it there is growing skepticism.

Trump has a sad.

This is a crazy person

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— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) April 16, 2026 at 4:09 PM

Yep, some federal judge is not letting Trump build his ballroom

The feud with the Pope continues. Trump is now claiming that Pope Leo said Iran could have nuclear weapons. Of course, he said no such thing. Leo has put out a new statement saying that “our Father’s heart is not with the wicked, the arrogant, or the proud.” Did you have anyone in mind, Your Holiness?

Speaker Mike Johnson and Vice President J.D. Vance have both made fools of themselves presuming to lecture the Pope on theology. See also Pope James David Vance the First by Tom Nichols at The Atlantic.

Perhaps  Trump ought to be worried that feuding with the Pope could cut into his support among Latinos. But never fear; Texas Republicans have a plan. See Josh Kovensky at TPM, Inside Texas Republicans’ Effort to Make the Midterms About Islamophobia.

The population of Texas is less than 2 percent Muslim, and nearly all the Muslims in Texas live in the Dallas and Houston areas, I understand. And I have yet to meet anybody hysterical over “Sharia law” who knows what it even is. But yeah, the economy is going to hell and everybody is pissed at Trump, so let’s get the yahoos afraid of Muslims. And if some of the yahoos burn down the mosques, that’s just too bad, isn’t it?

Phillips O’Brien (no relation I know of) is an American historian and professor of strategic studies at the University of St Andrews, Scotland. He was formerly at the University of Glasgow where he ran the Scottish Centre for War Studies. And this is what Professor O’Brien thinks of Trump’s cease fire deal.

Donald Trump yesterday showed how few cards the USA had to play in his war of choice, when he went from threatening to destroy Iranian people, culture and history, to agreeing to a two-week ceasefire and talks based on an Iranian ten point plan. The details of this plan (see below) amount to a comprehensive US defeat. If this indeed is the end of the war and that Iranian plan is the basis of a deal, it makes this if not the longest war in US history, the most pointless and a complete waste. Iran looks on the verge of emerging stronger, with the ability to generate massive new income, while the US looks, in a word, a busted flush.

This is no run of the mill TACO. This is complete US strategic failure.

Last night I was reading contradictory reports on the status of the Strait of Hormuz. I’m reading now that it’s still not safe until everyone has agreed to new protocols. Even whenever the Strait is safe I’m reading that it will be months before oil production is back to where it was, so there will be less oil on the world market for a while. And Iran wants control of the Strait from now on, which it didn’t have before. It plans to charge a fat fee — $2 million a ship — for passage through its strait.

Iran state media published the ten-point plan that it says will be the basis of negotiations. Professor O’Brien calls them Iran’s “victory terms.” Do read O’Brien’s entire post; it will catch you up better than I can.

And then Trump promptly said that wasn’t the same list of ten points he agreed to yesterday, but he wouldn’t say what those other points were. Probably he just doesn’t remember what he was told yesterday. The cease fire doesn’t seem to be entirely holding, but I don’t think Pete Hegseth has bombed anybody today. But it looks like Trump will get nothing he wanted. Iran, on the other hand, will come out of this much stronger and more feared. See also A New Geopolitical Reality Is Here by Thomas Wright at The Atlantic and Ignorance and Ignominy by Paul Krugman.

Of course, we don’t know how this episode will end. Trump could throw a fit tomorrow and go back to threatening to destroy Iran. I don’t know if Trump realizes even now how badly he screwed up. Most Republicans in Congress are unlikely to do anything to rein him in. Yet. When they get closer to the midterms and they are facing an electoral abyss they may change their minds.

This episode also demonstrates that The World’s Biggest Military Power is no stronger than the intelligence of the people leading it. With Trump and Hegseth in charge, it’s clear we’d be better off with less military and more smarts. It’s the U.S. that’s looking like a paper tiger right now.

Update: Another good link. This is Greg Sargent at The New Republic, MAGA Dolt Hegseth Accidentally Reveals Big Hole in Trump Victory Claim. Hegseth claims that all the bombs he dropped made Iran want to negotiate. Sargent points out that Iran was negotiating before the bombs dropped and was willing to concede more then that it is now.

Trump’s Easter message posted on Truth Social has caused a stir. Here is the unredacted version:

“Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell – JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah. President DONALD J. TRUMP”

Yeah, Happy Easter to you, too. What happened to “we don’t need the Strait of Hormuz?”  Trump is terrified and angry because Iran is making him look impotent. So he amps up the bullying, which is the only thing he knows how to do. Actual “leadership” is not  in his tool kit. And if he goes through with this he’ll be committing war crimes.

Paul Krugman wrote “America as we know it may end Tuesday. He also wrote,

If Trump is actually going to give the order for massive war crimes, for destruction of civilian infrastructure, power plants, bridges, which will, among other things, lead to a lot of deaths in Iran, will the military obey it? A year ago, I would have said no.

But what we do know now is that, first of all, there turns out to be at least a significant MAGA component inside the officer corps. And we know that Pete Hexeth has been systematically corrupting, dismantling the military over the past 14 months. Generals who raise ethical concerns have been fired. Officers who even just want to be intelligent about warfare. and not believe that it’s all about warrior ethos and lethality have been fired, so it’s quite possible that there’s a quorum of officers who will follow instructions to commit war crimes.

Krugman also cites Timothy Snyder, who wrote a terrifying post last week that begins:

We are seven months away from the most consequential midterm election in the history of the United States. Meanwhile, we are fighting a war. These are the structural conditions for a coup attempt in which a president tries to nullify elections and take permanent power as a dictator. 

There’s another good read by Christopher Bucktin at The Mirror. Trump is weak and unhinged and has lost control of events. Nothing is working out as he thought it would. And now Iran’s control of the Strait is screwing up Trump’s imagined “golden age.” As Bucktin writes, “Trump has spent a lifetime bullying his way through problems – threatening, bullying, paying off, and walking away. That may have worked in business deals and reality TV theatrics. It does not work on the world stage.”

Trump can’t deal with a situation he can’t dominate. And he sure as bleep is dominating global events less and less. Our old allies don’t want to work with him because he’s an asshole. Worse, he’s a stupid asshole. And I don’t see him calming down anytime soon.