This morning Trump told Michael Scherer of The Atlantic that Iran’s new leadership wants to talk. So Iran has new leadership already? So much for regime change.
“They want to talk, and I have agreed to talk, so I will be talking to them. They should have done it sooner. They should have given what was very practical and easy to do sooner. They waited too long,” Trump told me in a phone call from his Mar-a-Lago resort shortly before 9:30 a.m.
Except that there were ongoing talks, and word coming from the Foreign Minister of Oman that progress was being made. Trump can’t keep his stories straight.
Trump expects the people of Iran to rise up and depose the old regime. Everything I’ve read from knowledgeable people is that Iran already had a plan for what would happen if the Supreme Leader was assassinated. As in Venezuela, most likely the “new leadership” is just a reshuffling of the old leadership. Don’t be too surprised if someone emerges as the new Ayatollah in a few weeks. As for a popular uprising taking over, I’m reading that Iran has a lot of different factions that don’t necessarily get along, and trying to form any sort of unified movement from that would be an uphill climb. See Trump is making dangerous assumptions about who will take power in Iran by Sam Kiley at The Independent.
Back to Michael Scherer at The Atlantic:
Soon after our conversation, U.S. military officials announced that three U.S. service members were killed in the operation and five more were seriously wounded—the first known American casualties of the campaign. Trump told me he expects the attack on Iran will not disrupt Republican efforts before this fall’s midterm elections to convince voters that his administration is focused on delivering economic benefits for the country. “We have the greatest economy we’ve ever had,” he told me. “The word isn’t out because people like you don’t write about it properly. But the economy is ready to go through the roof. And it already is in many cases.”
Sure it is. There is also a real possibility that the Iran stunt will drive up petroleum prices over the next several months, which will not be helpful to Trump’s “affordability” problem.
I’m also reading that Trump thinks the bomb Iran project will end in a week or so. He’s hoping it does, I’m sure. I’m reading that a lot of the MAGA faithful are not happy, but they might forgive Trump if the bombing actually ends soon. See also MAGA Reacts to Trump’s Strikes on Iran: ‘Absolutely Disgusting and Evil’ by Peter Wade at Rolling Stone.
“The attack came despite U.S. intelligence assessments that Iran’s forces were unlikely to pose an immediate threat to the U.S. mainland within the next decade,” says reporting in the Washington Post. The same reporting also said Trump was pushed into going along with an attack by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Bibi Netanyahu Not exactly an “America First” duo. Trump has a history of listening to authoritarian strongmen before he listens to his own intelligence services. I suspect unresolved daddy issues.
I recommend Trump Has No Plan for the Iranian People by Anne Applebaum at The Atlantic. It reveals the Trump Administration to be a directionless mess. Various officials apparently are left to themselves to discern what U.S. policy is supposed to be, and their public statements are contradictory. And because Trump’s gang of obsequious amateurs are left to making up their jobs as they go along, often one part of the administration is working at cross-purposes with the other parts. Certainly more could have been done by other presidents to help/encourage the people of Iran to build an effective resistance against the Islamic regime. However, she continues,
The second Trump administration has gone much further in the opposite direction, actually dismantling tools that could have helped promote civic engagement and build a united opposition in Iran. The administration has taken money away from Iranian-human-rights-monitoring groups and defunded media projects. Under the leadership of the former Arizona political candidate Kari Lake, the U.S. Agency for Global Media has prevented Radio Farda, the Farsi-language channel of the U.S. broadcaster Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, from using American transmission equipment.
Voice of America, the U.S. government’s other Persian-language channel, cut back coverage and lost credibility by producing partisan broadcasts. The channel’s leadership has actually banned any mention of Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, the son of the late shah of Iran, who commands a substantial following both inside and outside the country. As a result, VOA lost ground to the Saudi-funded channel Iran International. Lake also cut funding for another agency, the Open Technology Fund, dedicated to providing virtual private networks and satellite access to Iranians, among others. That decision might also help keep Iranians inside the country isolated from the large dissident movement in the diaspora.
So while it’s possible the bomb Iran project will not turn out to be an utter waste of lives and resources — or worse, turn into a long-term regional war — any favorable outcome will not be because of the Trump Administration, but in spite of it. Because the Trump Administration isn’t qualified to run a bake sale.
