“Cut, Cap and Balance” Would Be Vetoed

The White House let it be know that the “cut, cap and balance” scheme would be vetoed if passed. Sam Youngman, The Hill: “In a statement of administration policy, the White House Office of Management and Budget labeled the GOP bill as an ’empty political statement.’ … The president’s veto threat was followed by a full-on assault from administration officials who blasted the GOP proposal as ‘extreme, radical [and] unprecedented.'” Well, yes.

See also “Poll: 71% shun GOP handling of debt crisis.”

Update: Dean Baker writes that there’s no way Wall Street would let the Republicans pull the debt ceiling trigger.

As many have noted, including me, a default on the debt would be an absolute disaster for the financial system. We would see the same sort of freeze-up of lending as we did after the collapse of Lehman in September of 2008, although this time would almost certainly be much worse.

With US government debt no longer the rock-solid pillar of the world financial system, banks would instantly lose much of their capital. They would not only have to write-down the value of government debt, but also all the assets backed by the government, like mortgage-backed securities issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

This would almost certainly push the major banks into insolvency. JP Morgan, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and the rest would suddenly be back in the welfare line. And any rescue would almost certainly not restore them to their former strength and profitability like the last one did. If the government defaulted on its debt, Wall Street would take a shellacking and it would never again be the centre of world finance.

For this reason, Baker says, no one believes Republicans in Congress will allow the U.S. to default. They may be willing to kick poor and working people in the teeth and let seniors rot, but they aren’t about to displease the people who finance their election campaigns.

This makes sense, but it’s congressional Republicans we’re talking about. Baker assumes a majority of them are sane enough to understand the consequences of default. I’m not sure that many of them do.

Update: Wall Street Journal proves Keynes was right.

How Crazy Are They?

Republicans yammered about a balanced budget amendment through most of the 1990s, shutting up only when the Clinton Administration balanced the budget without one. They continued to keep their mouths shut while George W. Bush borrowed and spent trillions of dollars and ran up the Deficit That Could Eat Cleveland. And now they are pinning that deficit on the guy who inherited it and are demanding another balanced budget amendment.

Any respectable economist, meaning any economist not on the payroll of a right-wing think tank, will tell you that a balanced budget amendment would permanently cripple the U.S. economy. David Leonhardt provides a basic explanation why this is so. See also Stephen Foley, explaining our little pickle to British readers of the Telegraph:

[A] balanced budget amendment is terrible economics. It effectively means an end to counter-cyclical fiscal policy: when a recession strikes, the federal government would not be able to stimulate the economy by spending more. Instead, it must cut back at the same time householders and businesses are doing the same, making the recession worse. It could condemn the US to a perpetual recession, a depression even.

Wiser heads tend to regard any balanced budget amendment proposal as a gimmick Republicans periodically use to bash Democrats. “As it is such terrible economics, the tendency has been to assume it cannot pass,” Foley writes. The problem is that after years of such demagoguery, enough ideological zealots have been elected to Congress to possibly make it real, and the American public is brainwashed enough to support it.

Grassroots organisations have been lined up to agitate in support of the plan; Republican governors, including at least two potential presidential candidates, have written in support in the past few days. It could easily become a touchstone issue for next year’s elections, with moderate Democrats not wanting to be seen as weak on cutting the deficit.

Leading to:

After all the drama of last week, Republicans had the chutzpah (or, in Minnesota, “choot-spa,” possibly from Old Norwegian “sjøsltsbÃ¥t,” the act of sniffing reindeer glue) to trot out another hard-right proposal over the weekend that is absolutely devoid of compromise and which is nothing but another Dem-bashing tool. “Cut, Cap, and Balance” was praised as a “common sense” proposal, which in Republicanese means it’s wearing a tin foil propeller beanie and crazypants.

Ezra Klein explains,

It begins with the McConnell plan, in which the debt ceiling is raised three times between now and November, and each time, Republicans are able to offer a resolution of disapproval. Then it adds in $1.5 trillion in spending cuts harvested from the Biden talks. Then it creates a committee of 12 lawmakers charged with sending a deficit-reduction plan to Congress by the end of the year. Whatever they decide on would be protected from the filibuster and immune to amendments.

Ezra doesn’t mention a balanced budget amendment, but they’ve thrown that in as well.

The only bright spot in this mess is that opposition to this proposal can be found across the political spectrum. The teabaggers don’t like it because it gives too much away to Obama. Face it; any raising of the debt ceiling will be seen as a failure and betrayal by the wingnuts, which makes me think the Republicans should just do it and get it over with and think of something else to stir up the mob going into the campaign season.

And, of course, anyone sane enough to not believe pixies are hiding behind the light socket plates is nervous about this, also.

Amy Fried writes that Republicans, as always, justify whatever lunatic thing they are pushing by claiming it’s what the American people want, even when polls say the American people want something else entirely. But, in Republicanese, “the American people” means “large donors to the Heritage Foundation.” If you understand that much, then the rest of it starts to make sense. Sort of.