Republicans in Ohio and Florida are blatantly working to suppress Democratic votes and hand the states to Romney. One of the reasons I worked out the Poll Closing Watch List yesterday was to try to understand for myself how much it mattered. It would certainly hurt if Romney claims both Ohio and Florida, but it isn’t necessarily fatal.
And don’t forget Virginia. Virginia is leaning Obama, although it’s very close. If the President does win Virginia, the odds that Florida and Ohio won’t matter are much improved.
Lots of people are laughing at Politico —
Democrats have a liberal problem
If President Barack Obama wins, he will be the popular choice of Hispanics, African-Americans, single women and highly educated urban whites. That’s what the polling has consistently shown in the final days of the campaign. It looks more likely than not that he will lose independents, and it’s possible he will get a lower percentage of white voters than George W. Bush got of Hispanic voters in 2000.
A broad mandate this is not.
The pressure on Obama to deliver for this liberal base will be powerful. Already, top left-wing groups are pressuring him not to buckle on a grand bargain that includes any entitlement cuts.
And if Obama wins, he will be dealing with a House Democratic Caucus more liberal than he is. The past four years have decimated the once-strong bloc of conservative Southern Democrats, leaving behind a caucus more liberal than ever. By POLITICO’s count, there will most likely be roughly 14 conservative “Blue Dog” Democrats in the next Congress, down from 50-plus only a few years ago.
I almost don’t know where to start.
Josh Marshall snarks: “Or to be more specific, Obama’s winning but not with the best votes. I mean really, if you can’t win with a broad cross-section of white people, can you really be said to represent the country? Really.”
Steve M: “Never mind the fact that if you’re a successful Republican presidential candidate, you’re considered to have a ‘broad mandate’ if you get suburban white voters in Michigan as well as suburban white voters in Mississippi.”
Yes, children, if President Obama wins on quantity of votes, he will still lose on quality of votes and therefore have no mandate to govern. He’s not a real President, because angry old less-educated southern white men don’t like him, is why.
Scott Lemieux: “Shorter Politico: Democratic states should get 3/5ths representation in the Electoral College.” Hah.
And, of course, I see the increased percentage of real Dems, as opposed to Blue Dogs, in Congress as a feature, not a bug. And “Already, top left-wing groups are pressuring him not to buckle on a grand bargain that includes any entitlement cuts.” Yes, thank you. Exactly what’s needed.