Check it out, folks — Nate Silver has the President’s chance to win the election tomorrow at 92.2 percent. Romney is down to 7.8 percent.
Well, we’ll see tomorrow.
Did the US suddenly decide to let the rest of the Free World vote, too? I hear Mitt quite an impression in the UK.
Holy defication, Batman. Nate has Obama predicted to take FL by two-tenths of a percent.
Please, let it be!
Ok Ok Ok THIS is big news: I have this friend. For years we have argued about politics. He is a republican dead head if you can imagine that. Hard working, do ANYTHING for his neighbor kinda guy. One of the best parents I have ever seen. Decent to the core in every way BUT his political views. He drives across Iowa everyday for his job and has become indoctrinated by talk radio(insanity, beck, limbo and huckabee) over years driving. For so many election cycles I tried everything ; logic , proof, facts- hell nothing worked. This time I gave up..I didn’t even try. When we talked politics I just listened and acted more like a interviewer who was interested in his views. I spoke with him several days ago and told him I had voted. We both laughed as I said we knew who I had voted for and I told him to be sure to get out and vote too even though our votes would be different. I told him I had voted for Obama with his 20 yr old step daughter on my mind and her right as a responsible , wonderful young lady to make her own choices. I told him we were suppose to want better for our kids than we had for ourselves and equal pay for her is a step in that direction. I told him even though I never had kids it was still up to me to vote as if they were mine- because this mess will someday belong to them. Something got to him someplace but today he called to tell me he had changed his mind and was casting his vote in the morning for Obama!!! neener neener gop we got one of yours!!!!!!!!
In case Obama is savvy enough to be reading the Maha Blog(and he should be) I just wanna say in the words of the Great Jay Z- GET, THAT, DIRT OFF YOUR SHOULDER(go on brush your shoulder off!)
I wonder who Mitt is today?
Will he paint a mustache on, and be Juan?
Then take it off, put on a dress, and be Juanita?
Will he be turning Japanese?
Wear a feathered head-dress?
Heap on the Man-tan, and wear a hoodie?
Or, will he stay the generic white cypher – the “Anyone, BUT Obama?”
Yeah, probably that…
Pretty bold, given the polls are still neck and neck.
As for me, I don’t know that I can stand to watch, tonight.
Way too stressful.
And I don’t stay up that late, anyway.
They aren’t, really. The polls are close, but they are being reported as closer than they actually are because (a) most of us, including reporters, don’t understand statistics very well; and (b) media want to pump up a “close” election because it draws more viewers/readers.
Nate Silver’s predictions are based on probability of either candidate winning combinations of states to reach 270 electoral votes. If you look at the election that way, it becomes apparent even to the math challenged that Obama can get to 270 by winning states in which he is ahead and is expected to win. He doesn’t need the “tossup” states. Romney needs to win most of the tossup states, plus he has to pull an upset in at least a couple of states that are expected to go for Obama. The odds for Romney really are much longer than they are for Obama.
I wonder who Mitt is today?
I think he’s gonna be Mr. suddenly Blue today.
Wow, justme! That’s an incredible story. I wish I were so well spoken
Something got to him someplace but today he called to tell me he had changed his mind and was casting his vote in the morning for Obama!!! neener neener gop we got one of yours!!!!!!!!
justme, I think you got to him.
I hope, as partial reward, you at least got to hear Bruce singing and Barack orating and Michelle just soaking up the applause for her general awesomeness, while they were down the street from you last night. I love Des Moines anyway, wish I coulda been there!
Kinda corney, but so true.
We all need to be reminded or maybe reassured (myself included) of what Silver actually means and mentioned to Joe Scarborough — that closeness and probability are not the same thing. If Obama wins by 1 vote on Wednesday the probability will be 100%. Dealing with a variety of factors including other polls against historical data the likelihood of an Obama win is that high based on the past effects of measured factors. Sure, if you flipped coins for a long, long time you might get only one head in 10 flips which is about the same odds Romney now has. Very unlikely, but it can happen.
The average voter and pundits see closeness and probability as inseperable but they aren’t. Silver has said Romney could upset, it’s just very unlikely but unlikely things do happen. If Romney wins, God or Buddha help us, it will only mean that we got 1 head out of 10, not that he was wrong.
Having a math background it pains me to witness such a fundamental understanding but this is what happens when you try to apply rationality and science to measure something that has widespread emotional focus.
Nate has Obama predicted to take FL by two-tenths of a percent.
That’s about 18,000 votes, almost as close a statistical tie as can be imagined…same as Silver saying he doesn’t know. That’s within the margin that can be accounted for voter roll purges or pissed off voters waiting for hours and going home without voting, even if both those dirty tricks will neutralize some votes on each side, only slightly favoring one.
I’m from FL and a good friend can’t keep up Obama signs in his yard. There are some nuts there.
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