These Republican senators are at the ends of their terms; or, in the cases of Martha McSally and Kelly Lynn Loeffler, finishing up vacated terms to which they were appointed by their governors. Red asterisks indicate senators considered by at least some pundits to be vulnerable. Two asterisks means the nerds at FiveThirtyEight think they’re vulnerable. The “retiree” seats are expected to remain Republican.
- Lamar Alexander (R-Tennessee) (retiring)
- Shelley Moore Capito (R-West Virginia)
- Bill Cassidy (R-Louisiana)
- Susan Collins (R-Maine) **
- John Cornyn (R-Texas) *
- Tom Cotton (R-Arkansas)
- Steve Daines (R-Montana)
- Mike Enzi (R-Wyoming) (retiring)
- Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) **
- Cory Gardner (R-Colorado) **
- Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina)
- Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-Mississippi)
- James Inhofe (R-Oklahoma)
- Kelly Lynn Loeffler (R-Georgia)
- Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky)
- Martha McSally (R-Arizona) **
- David Perdue (R-GA) *
- Jim Risch (R-Idaho)
- Pat Roberts (R-Kansas) (retiring)
- Mike Rounds (R-South Dakota)
- Ben Sasse (R-Nebraska)
- Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska)
- Thom Tillis (R-North Carolina) **
I’d like to believe that some of these, um, persons not considered vulnerable could still lose in upsets. Please don’t give up on defeating Mitch McConnell and Lindsey Graham in particular.
Democrats need to flip four seats to re-take the majority. This is not impossible, but it’s going to be a fight. On the plus side, only twelve Democratic incumbents are defending their seats. One Democratic senator, Tom Udall of New Mexico, is retiring, but his seat is considered “safe” for Democrats.
The vulnerable seats: Doug Jones of Alabama is hanging by a thread. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire and Tina Smith of Minnesota are “likely” but not “safe” to win another term. Gary Peters of Michigan may be in a close fight. The remaining Democrats up for re-election are considered “safe.”
There’s not much in the way of current polling in Senate races, although one January poll has Democrat Mark Kelly four points ahead of Martha McSally.
I’m posting this because I hope recent events have driven home to Dem and leftie voters that just defeating Trump is not enough. Even if we defeat Trump in November, if the Senate remains in Republican hands we’re still in big trouble, and none of the reforms we desperately need will become law. Especially if you live in a state with a contested Senate seat, see what you can do to help. We can do this.