Finally, the long-predicted fallout between Musk and Trump appears to have happened. Is it for real? When Musk announced his “retirement” from DOGE a few days ago, a lot of people thought it was an act, that he’d just shift to being a less visible player. And that might have been the plan. but I think this is for real now. Musk is continuing to trash Trump’s Big Ugly Bill, which is kicking Trump where it hurts.
I don’t have more than speculation on what these two guys are thinking or feeling. But the White House took a big swipe at Musk by canning Musk’s handpicked NASA chief the day after his cringey departure ceremony. That action both took something valuable away from Musk and treated him with a very public disrespect. So while Musk is clearly trying to undo the ocean of brand damage he brought on himself and his companies, I don’t think the White House is playing along and trying to help with that project. I think they’re really trying to show him who’s boss, a classic example of Trumpian dominance politics.
These two are capable of doing a lot of harm to each other. Musk could put his money into defeating MAGA candidates. Trump could cancel the contracts Musk arranged for himself while he had his fingers in the government. I don’t know those things will happen. And as of Wednesday afternoon I can’t find any reaction from Trump about what Musk said, which is uncharacteristic of Trump. I do think Musk’s ravings — which are about how the bill spends too much money, not about how it cuts too much taxes — might possibly soften support for the bill in Congress. And there are little signs that might be happening. See, for example, After Muscling Their Bill Through the House, Some Republicans Have Regrets.
However, they’re still in denial about what the BUB would do to the deficit. The CBO just came out with the official score:
The sweeping Republican bill for President Donald Trump’s domestic agenda is projected to add $2.4 trillion to the national debt over the next 10 years, according to a new estimate from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. It is slightly higher than an earlier version of the bill, which the CBO projected to add $2.3 trillion in new debt.
The report also says that 10.9 million Americans would lose their health care coverage if the bill becomes law. I doubt you’ll get many congressional Republicans on record acknowledging this. But there may be a few.
I am cheering for anything that slows the bill down, because I suspect the longer it stalls, the less likely it will pass, or at least pass without substantial changes. There appear to be a handful of Republican senators, including Josh Hawley, who realize the fallout of gutting Medicaid and probably Medicare would have real-world consequences that could hurt their constituents and, worse, hurt their re-election chances.
I also think that Trump is not exactly growing political capital. If he’s really lost Musk, what about the rest of the Tech Bros? There are news stories going back a couple of months saying that tech leaders were “breaking up” with Trump, which I hadn’t noticed.
But Trump also recently burned bridges between himself and Leonard Leo, and the Federalist Society generally, and that might be more significant than losing Musk. See Elie Mystal at The Nation, Trump Is Headed to War With the Federalist Society—and It’s Gonna Be Huge. Mystal is writing about judicial appointments, but it’s also the case that pretty much all conservative judges on the bench today are Federalist Society judges. And they are more loyal to Leonard Leo than they are to Trump. This is not going to help Trump in court. At some point he’s going to start looking pretty damn ineffectual.
I realize that most Americans have no idea what’s going on. I say that because Trump’s disapproval numbers are staying stubbornly stuck in the upper 40s. But as the year goes on I suspect at least some of the low-info crowd will notice the real world. Because as much incompetence as Trump has packed into his administration there will be screwups, and some of those screwups will be so big and splashy that even the low-infos will notice them. At least, we can hope. I don’t want another Hurricane Katrina-level disaster, but do remember what that did to George W. Bush. He never recovered.
The MAGA movement is basically a nihilistic one. It doesn’t know what it’s for, just what it’s against. It looks to Trump to restore an America that never existed, without realizing that Trump is destroying everything that did make America great. I don’t expect them to learn. But according to YouGov, “Among the entire population of adult citizens, the share of MAGA supporters has never risen above 20%.” I would have guessed 30%, but I’ll take 20%. That means there’s a lot of room for approval numbers to go down before they hit the 20% floor.
And at some point, maybe even Mike Johnson and Marjorie Taylor Greene will start to ignore him.
Trump is saying nothing because Twitter can tweak its algorithms to feature stories that make Trump look bad to the crowd Musk has identified as potentially pro-Trump. It does not look like Trump plans to continue as POTUS if you look at the plan to transfer the 747 to Trump's library in 2028. Granted the plan will change if the House spends two years investigating the criminality in the entire executive branch. I do not think Trump will run again – if he feels pressed by legal jeopardy, Trump will declare an emergency and shut down democracy. Or try.
Musk is a problem. He knows Trump is an idiot and Musk played Trump with flattery and piles of money. Trump is disconnected with "details" which means anything complex. IMO, Musk did a lot on his own for the period of time that Trump thought it was going well. Musk's popularity took a dive – his ability to deliver with million-dollar checks failed. Others in the Administration refused to bow down to Musk as they have to Trump especially when Musk was setting policy for departments in ways that were NEVER discussed in the Oval Office. In other words, acting like a shadow government like the mythical "deep state" MAGA is certain exists.
It appears Musk is motivated to salvage Tesla, which I would not bet on, but I don't think Musk intended to retire completely. He did intend to issue edicts and bust stuff up without Trump's authorization AND Musk intended to cut himself into gvernment contracts at will. (yes, that's opinion.) Trump is all for graft but he likes to be in on it. Musk was planting his loyalists in key places so he could bypass Trump. Shades of "President Musk." So Musk was being eased out for a variety of reasons, including the legal defense that Musk's involvement is moot because he's no longer in government. Which Musk accepted to try to get out of lawsuits with his name at the top. But Musk expected he could step in and out at will.
I think Musk will be mentioned more often when a scapegoat is needed. Maybe not by Trump directly but by Bullshit Barbie or real cabinet members whose toes Musk stomped on. Which is almost everybody – Musk, like Trump, thinks he is king.
Regarding Leo, he promoted a judicial philosophy that's integrated in the conservative wing of the judiciary. I'm not certain it's personal loyalty to Leo but it IS loyalty to a pro-business, pro-Wall Street, anti-regulation, anti-taxation philosophy. Tariffs are not a traditional Republican feature – the more bonehead ideas gum up Wall Street profit margins, the less popular Trump will be with big money AND the conservative wing of the judiciary. The question is what they (Leo and Wall Street) will do when it's obvious to them that Trumpian boneheads must be excluded from policy and power while they also try to keep Democrats out of power. (I'm thinking mid-terms and 2028.)
The BBB-Bill is like the tariffs plan. A facade at best that is a thin illusion. The tariff plan assumed that penguins would pay tariffs and was based upon the false premise that a negative balance of trade was solid evidence that our country was being extorted, and that country deserved a tariff tantrum. (yes, I still am beating that drum)
What was behind the tariff facade? It seems like the same thing that was behind the Great Wall of America that Mexico was going to pay for, or at least something similar. I guess remnants of the Great Wall exist even today, with donations to its construction consumed by fraud and prosecutions. No evidence was ever found of a fund contribution from Mexico. So far, the Great Wall is failing to attract any significant number of tourists or amount of tourist trade. At this point I think we have almost established that tariffs are a tax we will have to pay, but some may still believe the big lie on that one. Note also the regressive nature of the tax which gets little press at all. So far, the big lie is holding there, and inflation data is a lagging indicator. (Thumbs on the scales may come into play also). Yes, the poor will pay the most or do without the most. (Most of them will find this out way too late so shush),
The big lie behind the BBB-Bill is that borrowed money is not going to pay for it. The rich want a continuation of tax cuts and more tax cuts you know. That money has to come from somewhere. Unfortunately, interest rates are a bit high right now, and our countries credit rating is going South. Even before passage, the cost of interest on our huge current national debt is rising fast. That too is a lagging indicator. For the moment at least a 30 – year T-bill will promise to pay you a bit less than 5% should you care to make that loan. That is offered in 10K increments you know. When you're borrowing in Trillions you can't mess with small change.
So now we have Musk and of course Libertarian Senator Rand Paul from Kentucky in full revolt on the BBB-Bill shouting BS-Bill funded by debt of Trillions more. (Do they not understand the MAGA morons think tariffs are paying for it and they need to shush). I think a few people have even leaked that MAGA morons may not get Medicaid cookies anymore. OK. Sorry. MAGA morons is redundant. My bad. I just did it because when it comes to cookies and moonshine they show bursts of understanding. Sorry.
Potemkin President version II appears to have flaws similar if not enhanced over version I. That is only two Ps though, but in the Army, we had 5 or 6 as I recall. Bone Spurs missed that training though. He is just PP grade.
If we are allowed elections that could be meaningful in '26 and '28, and if the Ds come up with some leadership that are not feckless tools of capital with nothing to offer in terms of Reconstruction, we could be looking at a repeat of the 1930s. Those of us who survive.
The last time the R Party got to do exactly what it wanted for 4 years with no restraint at all, the R Party's reputation came away so beshitted that the R Party could not elect a President for 20 years. And then they only won because they did not run a Republican. The last time there was 4 years of R governance with all the blade guards off, the R Party did not win undivided control of government again until everybody who was alive at the time had died.
That's the hopeful vision. For those who survive the next few years.
Potemkin President, yes,… an illusion to set up chaos and uncertainty to facilitate grift. The greatest crime of the modern era is taking place and most Americans are obsessed with the politics of their belly button and binary bathrooms.
The grifters are still winning, though. Is there a path, storyline or ideology that can replace the media dreamscape we inhabit?
The orange people win by failing and their fairytale is the current reality we live in:
https://kyla.substack.com/p/wweconomics-kayfabe-and-the-trade
You went with Belly Buttons and Binary Bathroom when today I thought was brought to us by the letter P. Polly Potties show better tolerance.
Hahahaha… how bout people are arguing about private parts and potty places when I, and many others, are facing prohibitive physician pricing, privation of personal privacy, and pillaged public places!
Perhaps when the Epstein files are released we will see who is brought to you by P for prominent perverts and pedos!
Holy Shit!
Musk is claiming DJT is in the Epstein files.
Trump is offering to terminate all of Musk's government contracts.
I expect SpaceX stock to drop in price – a lot. There will be no massive government buy of Teslas. There won't be any certification of Tesla self-driving cabs. The boy wonder has screwed the pooch.
Space X should be nationalized and used for free wifi as a public utility.
I missed a big threat. Musk is going to "decommission" the Dragon spaceship, the only working US way to the Space Station. We might use the Russians – but they will want Ukraine. (I'm not sure if I'm kidding.) Boeing has a non-working rocket. (Does not fill me with confidence.)
And we're looking at why we shouldn't privatize space travel or essential services to companies with egomaniacs at the helm.
Space X should be nationalized and used for NASAs primary contractor for heavy-lift space vehicles. .