If John McCain wins the general election, we’ll be looking at four more years of Bushism — more tax cuts for the rich, more cuts in domestic spending, and war war war. And if he does win, it may be that historians will look back at last night as the night that he won.
He didn’t just win the GOP nomination. Now that Senator Clinton has won the popular vote in Ohio and Texas, she’s going to continue her toxic, smearing, win-at-any-cost strategy to knock off Barack Obama for the next few weeks. As Dan Kennedy says, “From this point on, Clinton can do Obama a lot of damage without necessarily being able to help herself.” This is exactly why Rush Limbaugh urged his listeners to cross party lines and vote for Clinton. (H/t Liza)
This means:
So, yes, I’m discouraged. See also Ian Welsh.
As announced yesterday, I’m going to be on (workplace alert: don’t click unless your sound is on mute) Blog Talk Radio today from 1 to 2 pm eastern time. I will be grumpy.
Now that Senator Clinton has won the popular vote in Ohio and Texas, she’s going to continue her toxic, smearing, win-at-any-cost strategy to knock off Barack Obama for the next few weeks.
Its so gloomy isn’t it? I feel like going back to bed! Hope is such a powerful message and perfect contrast for the GOP (Grumpy Old Person). How could this happen? There is a part of me that thinks its because people are just not so bright, as a consequence of that democracy does not work as well as we are told it does.
Then again, maybe Clinton is a good candidate. She is surely good at pointing to the flaws of democracy and manipulating these flaws for her own benefit. I guess I can’t blame her. It is just such a gloomy day – I have to go to school.
McCain – “war, war, war.” Notice the military brass standing behind Hillary during some of her campaign stops?
Hillary’s first term in office, if it happens, will be devoted to winning her second term. She’s likely to take a page out of George’s playbook on how to keep terror alive and well and thereby win a second term. It’s beyond tragic that fear has become so firmly embedded in the American psyche, but it’s a fact. Hillary knows it and has no compunction about using it to further her career – even though she may end up being the last president of this dying republic.
Hillary’s “toxic smears” are hymns of praise compared to what the Republicans will do. If Obama can’t beat back her (really quite mild) attacks, he has no business going up against the party of Atwater and Rove.
This morning it’s as if the primary groundhog saw his shadow and took a dive, and now we’re in for 6 more weeks of the cheese-grater whining of Hillary Clinton.
And worse. The photo of Bush leading McCain into the White House this morning, arm around the old coot’s shoulder, makes my blood run cold.
Barbara, it was good talking to you this morning (my time). You raised very good points throughout.
Take heart –
From GOPUSA, a Republican online newsleter today –
“The GOP faces the juggernaut of Democrat excitement and it’s going to be tough to beat. Obama is getting people, especially young people excited about the future. He talks about “hope,” and young voters go ga-ga. This brings me to another topic… the uneducated voter. Ask voters why they favor Obama and they say things like “he stands for change” or “he will bring the country together” or “he has a message of hope.” Ask those same voters to describe Obama’s policies, and they have no clue at all. But that is a topic for another day.
The point is that I can see only two outcomes on the Democrat side. One is that Obama becomes the nominee. The other is that Clinton becomes the nominee, and Obama will be the vice presidential nominee. In either case, we will have to face Obama and an energized Democrat electorate. To say that we have an uphill climb is an understatement.”
From Hillary in regard to Michigan and Florida….“It’s a mistake for the Democratic Party to punish these two states,” she said. “I don’t see how a Democratic nominee goes forward alienating two of the most important states.”
Is it punishment? Seems to me it would be leadership and the responsible exercising of authority..I said what I mean, and I mean what I say.. And Hillary thinks she’s fit to be Commander in Chief? She whines that the fufilment of pre-stated consequences to defiance of the recognised authority is a punishment?… No, it’s only the exercise of authority. Hillary couldn’t make it through basic training with that crybaby attitude..let alone be Commander- in-Chief.
So, some numbers. I really, really hope this formats OK…
Essentially, Obama still has the lead in delegates and popular vote, even if we count FL and MI. We will obviously NOT be counting FL and MI, so those scenarios are there for curiosity only. In order for Hillary to go into the convention with a delegate lead, she’d have to win a truly ridiclulous percentage of the remaining delegates.
These numbers are based on the MSNBC numbers, so keep that in mind. No super-delegates are included in these numbers, as far as I know … these are just pledged delegates.
This is the lead Obama has in votes, the total number of votes cast, the ratio of Obama’s vote lead to the total, and Obama’s delegate lead.
First line is without MI and FL, second line is with just FL, third line is with MI and FL.
632,133 24,982,377 2.5303% 140
343,966 26,408,626 1.3025% 109
15,815 26,736,777 0.0592% 36
So, in scenario 1, Hillary needs to win 61.5% of the remaining 611 pledged delegates in order to go to the convention with a pledged delegate lead. In scenario 2, she needs 59.1%, and in scenario 3 she needs 53.0%.
She’s only managed to get more than 61% of the delegates in 2 states — Oklahoma and Rhode Island. She has never managed to get more than 61% of the popular vote. Best she’s done was Rhode Island, with 58%.
For scenario 2, she’s only managed to get more than 59% of the delegates in three states … the two already mentioned, and her home state of New York.
For scenario 3, she’s matched or beat 53% of the delegates with most wins.
-me
In the interests of fairness, I favor Obama. But I try to step outside my preferance to look at the facts, because I can be swayed by emotion, just like anyone.
Without hoaxing the numbers –
Delegate Count – Popular
Pledged Super Total (in Millions)
Obama 1321 +135 199 1520 +95 12.267
Clinton 118 238 +39 1424 11.987
The popular vote does not include the caucuses, so Clinton is not doing as well as she looks. If we average the popular vote (total vote/contests) the ‘average’ contest is 897,000 voters. Obama has won 11 caucuses (out of 12) by an average of 12.5% So if you multiply 12 caucuses by the average voter turnout per contest times 12.5% which is Obamas margin, thats a good guess of his ‘popular’ margin in caucus states.
you go girl, hillary i mean. the men in this country have fucked/mucked things up so bad and it is the women who ultimately have to fix it. i am woman, hear me strong!
p.s. i have stopped reading pro anyone blogs. accidently got you. pro someone blogs are no different than, tweety, tfucker, o’really and all others.
Maha, don’t lose heart. Endorsing McCain several times as a potentially more experienced president than Obama, Hillary had already gone where no Democratic candidate who recognizes the real tragedy of the last seven years would dare to go. Her website, now presenting the desaturated, darkened and then widened Barak Obama, is a line she has crossed into Photoshop Hell that she will never recover from. She is now fair game from anyone with a rudimentary knowlege of the software program and an ability to post an image anywhere they damn well please. She’s toast.
My prev comment numbers got hashed. I apologise. Let me reformat in text:
Obama has 1321 Pledged (Obama +137)
Clinton has 1186 Pledged
Obama has 199 Superdelegates
Clinton has 238 Superdelegates (Clinton (+39)
Obama has a total of 1520 Delegates (Obama +95)
Clinton has a total of 1424 Delegates
If you exclude the unseated states – they don’t count and Obama did not campaing and In MI was noton the ballot this is the popular count in millions of voters
Obama 12.267 + .280
Clinton 11.987
Obama has kicked ass in caucuses, but there is no popular count to tally. If you use the numbers from the primary states to come up with an ‘average’ contest in ‘average’ voters, you can add 1.184 million voters to Obama. So hes an ‘adjusted’ 1.464 million up.
Look at the number of contests:
Obama has won 14 primaries and 11 caucuses. Total 25
Clinton has won 15 primaries and 1 causus. Total 16
This will come down to superdelegates. They need to be aware who is ‘ahead’ without prejudice. I will support either candidate, but I will judge the RNC harshly if logic is set aside in the process.
I rooted for Obama, and he is still my first choice. It seems one thing the Democrats should do is to hang Shrub’s endorsement of McCain like an anchor around McCain’s neck. I can see it now-Liked Dubya, You’ll Love McCain (not!) Also, if the economic house of cards comes crashing down during a McCain administration, it will enable Democrats to hang the economic failures of the many years of Republican rule around the elephant’s neck.
Jesus-Fucking-Christ Barbara, you sound like a goddam Republican…
Even though I’m not convinced that Obama is necessarily better positioned to beat MCain– and I think all the people who say they ‘know” which democrat would be more formidable in November really don’t have any special insight that the rest of us lack–
nevertheless, I’ve come to the conclusion you’re right about how HRC’s campaign could well be destructive at this point. It reminds me, especially the strange praise for– and linkage with– McCain, of how Bill Clinton decided to endorse faux-democrat Lieberman against Ned Lamont in 2006– and then when Lamont won the democratic nomination anyway, essentially offering Lamont a no-confidence vote with his subsequent silence.
I disagree. McCain will have very little press from here on out – probably until August. (I bet he doesn’t pick he VP choice until the Democrats make their choice, and that probably won’t happen until the convention.) His stature will be diminished while Democratic ideas will continue to get press attention. People’s enthusiasm is running high and so are their passions, which is a good thing, not something to be avoided.
By the way, I think that they should do a vote-over in Florida and Michigan to keep attention and enthusiasm high.
McCain will have very little press from here on out – probably until August.
That helps McCain. As long as people aren’t getting a good look at him, and the press continues to call him a “maverick” and a war hero, his stature will be as high as it can be. We need him to be as exposed as possible because, frankly, he’s a scary old man.
Be patient. A presidential campaign is a 6-week horse race to the finish. Regardless of who wins the nomination, there will still be plenty of time to expose an opponent whose message is “More of the same.” And after so many years of being ignored, 24/7 press coverage for Democrats isn’t entirely bad.