What Goes Up Must Come Down

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Trump Maladministration

Trump’s stock market has lost $1 trillion in value in the first five days of February, it says here. The Dow dropped 1500 points today before coming back up a bit. This was “the worst single-day point drop the Dow has ever sustained,” it says here.

This isn’t necessarily a harbinger of anything. The stock market is still pretty high, historically speaking. Most of the talking heads are calling the stock downturn a “correction.” There is also concern that the Federal Reserve is draining money out of the financial system to stop inflation. But probably there’s no reason to panic, they say.

I called it “Trump’s stock market,” however, because Trump has been bragging about how the surging stock market is a reflection of his brilliance.

As the Dow Jones industrial average climbed to new heights early this year, President Trump clamored for credit.

He might regret the campaign to claim ownership of the economy if a sudden pullback turns out to be more than just a blip. …

… Any nuanced view of the stock market acknowledges that many factors can affect prices. No president — certainly not one who has been in office for barely a year — is singularly responsible for surges or declines.

But Trump has suggested that stocks would have “tanked” if not for his victory, and he has complained that the media devotes insufficient attention to the strong market, which he counts among the “many things accomplished by the Trump administration.”

“The stock market has smashed one record after another, gaining $8 trillion and more in value in just this short period of time,” Trump said in his State of the Union address last week, referring to gains since Election Day 2016.

See also:

A rocky patch for the markets could become awkward for President Trump. He has repeatedly claimed credit for surging stocks, while business optimism over his push to cut taxes and lessen regulation has helped fuel the “Trump Bump.”

Mr. Trump’s habit of regularly boasting about stock market surges is a practice other presidents avoided. They knew that what goes up may go down again, and they did not want to take the blame for market forces beyond their control.

So, it’s his stock  market. Up or down, he owns it.

Update: See also “‘The president clearly set himself up’: Trump’s stock market miscalculation” by Ben White at Politico.

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14 Comments

14 Comments

  1. Billikin  •  Feb 5, 2018 @7:04 pm

    Right. If any president is responsible for the economy and markets — a half truth at best –, there is a lag of about one year, which hardly anybody talks about. So the stock market up 'til about Jan. 20 was the Obama market, after which the Trump market started.

  2. Swami  •  Feb 5, 2018 @9:10 pm

    Don't even think that Trump will own any negative result in the stock market. He's just one big bag of shit who isn't capable of accepting anything that is contrary to his delusions of grandeur. We'll never really know if truth can permeate the depths of his soul( if he even has one). But we can be certain that whatever transpires within him he'll never admit to anything less than his own perfection. He's a sick, sick individual who is totally consumed by narcissism.

    He's unaffected by rational criticism. The only effective method to deal with the likes of Trump is to construct a voodoo doll image of him and buy a box of straight pins. Then proceed to call upon whatever power in the cosmos can act upon your desires to bring him into obedience to reality by the insertion of straight pins into his voodoo doll image. 

    The apostle Paul used the term kicking against the goads to refer to unbelievers who were reluctant in accepting obedience to Christ. My prescribed method is a variant of that same dynamic, except it is more inclusive to allow for other powers within the cosmos to act in your behalf. Give it a try.. to quote the infallible Trump.." Hey, what have you got to lose?"

  3. Strigiforms  •  Feb 5, 2018 @9:26 pm

    Well, as we all no doubt predicted, Trump isn't going to try to claim this like he has been claiming the rise in the stock market.  According the Sarah Huckabee Sanders, when asked about this today, “The president’s focus is on our long-term economic fundamentals, which remain exceptionally strong.”  More empty words.

  4. boba  •  Feb 5, 2018 @9:30 pm

    @Billikin You are correct in stating that the activities – policies – endeavors of the president have about a 1 year lag on the economy, that's pretty much a given by any one versed in macro economics.  However, you are incorrect when you conflate the "economy" with the stock market (or more properly the equities markets).  The Dow Jones Index (which many use as shorthand for the NYSE) is an exceptionally narrow, decidedly arbitrary, and wholly inaccurate indicator of equities markets in general, let alone the economy.  The S&P 500 is a broader index, but really only tells you what the equities markets are doing, not necessarily where they are going.

    All that said, this was a Trump Market from day one of his office – and that's not a good thing.  It is driven by speculation, it is being abused by corrupt traders, and the vast majority of investors will lose and a few slippery people will come out ahead: That's TRUMP!

    -Side Note David Bryne and the Talking Heads all but predicted this back in 1982.  Crank up "Speaking in Tongues" and listen carefully, it's all there – burning down the house, our president's crazy, did you hear what he said, you can pretend I'm a rich millionaire washing his hands, … We can only hope it ends with Naive Melody.

  5. csm  •  Feb 5, 2018 @11:43 pm

    The integrity-challenged, morally unhinged, bigoted cretin won't have any problem blaming Obama (or Crooked Hillary) if the dip in the stock market becomes a trend, and if it goes back up, it'll because of his huge hands.

  6. Swami  •  Feb 6, 2018 @3:47 am

    Trump is a big bag of shit…I'm fervently praying that a cutaneous horn grows out of his forehead. Just low enough so that it can't be covered with his stupid MAGA hat.

  7. chris  •  Feb 6, 2018 @9:45 am

    I'm not an economist but all one has to do is see the signs. We have been in a slow, fragile recovery from 2008. Much of what Obama wanted was denied by the GOP, so the economy never has gotten to full strength. Regarding the stock market and its continual rise, much of that has been stock buy backs. It increased stock prices but did nothing for the economy–no new jobs, no adding anything to the economy, no salary increases (other than execs who get paid with stock options).

    Now bond prices are collapsing causing rates to go higher in order to spur  sales. Higher interest rates add debt both to our nation and to corporations who already borrowed vast amounts (mostly for stock buy backs). Plus we have to take more money from the Fed to pay for tax cuts for the rich.

    Speaking of the GOP Tax Scam, historically, huge tax cuts for the rich have always led to a crash. As I said, Obama's recovery was fragile and this tax scam is kneecapping the recovery. The tax cuts aren't producing much in the way of jobs and isn't adding enough money to the economy not to mention the derivatives out there on student loans. One might call it a correction, but odds are it's about to get worse.

  8. c u n d gulag  •  Feb 6, 2018 @11:56 am

    I thank Goddess/FSM that tRUMP wasn't POTUS when "Dumbaya's Re/De-pression" almost 'asteroided' the world's economy in 2007-2009.

    We'd all be low-paid lackey's for our Chinese Overlords if he was.

    Obama saved the American, and many other countries economies.  But, with no thanks coming from our bigoted conservatives (but I repeat myself). 

     

  9. csm  •  Feb 6, 2018 @1:24 pm

    "Much of what Obama wanted was denied by the GOP, so the economy never has gotten to full strength."

    True, and that was done for purely partisan political reasons, to deny Obama a "win" even though it would have been the best thing for the nation.  And then they used the anemic recovery to blame Obama and use it as an excuse for the tax cuts to transfer public wealth to the 1% and put the country right back in the cross hairs of another GOP-sponsored recession.  Yet another example of how the GOP's penchant for politics and abhorrence of governing hurts the country.  

  10. Swami  •  Feb 6, 2018 @1:49 pm

    Here's a little something to divert from the psychological strain of trying to comprehend that big bag of shit called Donald Trump. He's just a bum trip! 

    Sometimes it does the soul good to retreat to a more pleasant time where tranquility and happiness ruled supreme.

     Please enjoy this trip down memory lane with me…I hope it stirs warm memories…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=blMW80gdVmY

  11. grannyeagle  •  Feb 6, 2018 @3:01 pm

    Swami:  Thanx for the memories.  And, amazingly, I could even understand every word they were saying.  Yes, those were the good ol' days.

  12. Ed  •  Feb 6, 2018 @4:39 pm

    No, no, don't you libtards get it? Thanks to Trump's brilliant leadership, stocks are becoming more affordable for ordinary Americans! 

  13. Swami  •  Feb 6, 2018 @8:50 pm
  14. Billikin  •  Feb 7, 2018 @4:23 pm

    Thanks, baba! smiley



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