Nuts and Dolts

Click only if you have the stomach — Mark Steyn responds to Sandra Fluke’s speech at the DNC with some misdirected verbiage suggesting that the oppression of women is necessary for the good of the economy.

Ann Romney wants you to know that reproductive and marital rights are not what this election is about, so you people had better stop asking her about it.

Ann Romney also wants you people to know that her husband is just oozing with goodness. No, Queen Ann, those are lies. Way different.

We now know that the Romney campaign is targeting eight states — Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, and New Hampshire. Per Nate Silver, the only one of those currently leaning toward Romney is North Carolina. Jonathan Chait writes,

The reason this looks worrisome for Romney is that he’s pursuing an electoral-college strategy that requires him nearly to run the table of competitive states. The states where Romney is not competing (and which aren’t obviously Republican, either) add up to 247 electoral votes. The eight states where Romney is competing add up to a neat 100 electoral votes, of which Romney needs 79 and Obama just 23. If you play with the electoral possibilities, you can see that this would mean Obama could win with Florida alone or Ohio plus a small state or Virginia plus a couple small states, and so on.

Unless I’m missing something badly here, Romney needs either a significant national shift his way — possibly from the debates or some other news event — or else to hope that his advertising advantage is potent enough to move the dial in almost every swing state in which he’s competing.

IMO the targeting makes sense if you have been following Nate Silver’s data. Polling in most states is remarkably lopsided, heavily favoring one candidate over the other. Even if you had all the money in the world to burn, it wouldn’t make a lot of sense to advertise in those solid red or blue states. In less than 60 days, barring some unforeseen event, no way the needle is going to move that much.

12 thoughts on “Nuts and Dolts


    And as for Republicans hoping from a bump after Mitts debate (debacle?), well folks, GOOD LUCK!
    Unless you break out W’s walki-talkie-suitie and have a hypnotized Bill Clinton offstage reciting back what Luntz and Rove are whispering in his ear, or Obama walks on stage in Earth-tones and sighs at every one of Mitt’s lies, waiting for Mitt to out-debate Barack, when he couldn’t even beat Newt, is like watching ‘Waiting For Godot” in a lightless bomb-shelter – people completely in the dark, waiting for something that ain’t gonna happen.

    The only other chance you’ve got, is if that Mayan meteorite hits President Obama square on his coconut during the debate.
    At least this way, before the world ends, you can give the debate to Mitt by default.

  2. It occurs to me that Mitt has lost more elections than he has won, so it’s quite possible that he would have chosen a bad political strategy.

    He probably is betting they can outspend on advertising to win, especially since they are free of that pesky need to be factual. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some scandalous stuff air in October, the kind of stuff to make Lee Atwater proud. Though I think even Mitt is smart enough to realize that Obama is not vulnerable to the charge that he had a black baby.

  3. biggerbox,
    If they stick to making Lee Atwater proud, we should all be thankful.

    I’m afraid they’ll put the kind of stuff on the air that would make even Lee Atwater cringe, and recoil in horror.

  4. Mitt has lost more elections than he has won, so it’s quite possible that he would have chosen a bad political strategy.

    FWIW, I read something on DailyKos where the writer apparently overheard a conversation between Dick Morris and some Republican operative. This was in a diner/restaurant around NYC. Morris said the ticket was doomed because Mitt picked Ryan as VP.

    Now, who knows if this account is true, and Dick Morris isn’t exactly perfection when it comes to prognostication. But I am quite hopeful that Lyin’ Ryan will indeed help sink Mitt’s chances come the debates. I sure hope Joe Biden is up to it.

    The sense I have always gotten from Mitt is that he’s not really that interested in winning, or he just doesn’t believe winning is possible. Maybe because he’s an animatronic candidate, that I can’t pick up the fire and desire most candidates radiate. It came through in that Freudian slip when he introduced Ryan as “the next President” of the United States. Someone who firmly believed in themself would not have made that mistake. I sure as hell hope I’m right.

  5. I agree, Moonbat, I can’t really understand why Mitt wants to be President. It’s almost like he feels like he’s already done Governor, and Wall St. millionaire, and the only job left that could be considered a promotion is President. And he gives off a weird vibe of feeling entitled to it, like he feels like he’s put in the time on the corporate ladder and now it’s his turn. It’s not that he wants to DO the job, he just wants to be GIVEN the job.

    I don’t even really believe he is even passionate about getting the job to cut his own taxes. All that will really do is marginally trim his pay-out to accountants who will be working to shelter his money in trust funds and off-shore accounts. Actually being President is probably a worse life than the one he has already.

  6. I’ve seen a barrage of Romney ads recently here in Florida..The bullshit ain’t getting past my defenses, but one cleverly hidden rhetorical device did catch my attention. Romney said something to the effect of: “President Obama “can” say that others are to blame for the poor ecomony.”

  7. TPM is reporting that today Mitt implied that the Democrats want to take the word “God” off our coins, by claiming that he, of course, WON’T.

    It’s gonna be a loooong autumn.

  8. Right, the nex thing wil be Obama wants to replace God with Allah.
    I can’t wait for the debates.

  9. Does anyone know what the scorecard is of politicans who made a bid as a vice presidential candidate only to have it end their political career.What I’m trying figure out is what’s Paulies chances of being exposed for the fraud he is, being judged a loser by his constituents,and losing his prospects for ever bieng reelected?

    It would be nice to know he could pay a price.

  10. I’m hearing that Mitt intends to replace the statue of Columbia atop the U.S Capitol with a statue of Moroni if he gets elected?

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