Nate Silver says it appears the President is pulling further ahead of Romney in the polls. It’s not time to uncork the champagne bottles yet, but it’s looking hopeful. See also the BooMan.
The Right is genuinely baffled as to why their guy isn’t winning by a mile. Those of you with a morbid fascination with psycho-political pathology might get a kick out of some of their arguments today — see Power Tool John and Andrew McCarthy, for example. It’s beginning to dawn on them that they could lose. They are still hopeful that some reservoir of undecided voters will break to Romney at the last minute, but now they are entering the second-guessing phase. Have they been too “conservative,” or not “conservative” enough?
Although we may never solve the mystery of why Mitt Romney wants to be President, I am getting the impression that he, and much of the rest of the Right, thought this election would be easily winnable. All they had to do was present a candidate who looks like he could play a President on teevee, and all those folks disappointed in President Obama would flock to him. And it isn’t happening. And they are so lost inside their own echo chamber they have no idea why.
What I think is that the Democratic convention reflected what the electorate actually thinks and feels right now, and the Republicans missed that by a mile. The cut taxes/deregulate to create prosperity gag is old, and tired, and no one outside the rightie echo chamber believes it any more. And every local, state, and national candidate for office for the past several election cycles has been promising jobs, jobs, jobs, and the promises don’t cut it. Without a credible, clearly articulated plan, they might as well promise fairy dust and unicorns.
With two months to go a lot can happen, but I’m feeling pretty good about the election, and America, right now.
I’m also pretty hopeful.
About the only thing that I think the Democratic Convention lacked, was an open-throated call for people to make sure they vote out the Republicans in the House and Senate.
I know the message is there in their calls for people to go out and vote, but I’d have liked a little more specificity.
You can’t ‘hope’ for ‘change,’ with a Republican House and/or Senate.
But the real reason I’m hopeful, is something that I don’t think the polls will show until AFTER Election Day – and that is how many conservative-leaning, usually Republican-voting women, will vote for Democratic this time. They’d have to be pretty solidly entrenched in the RW Echo Chamber, not to feel themselves and/or their daughters/mothers/sisters/nieces threatened.
The phone polls may not show that, because Conservative women tend to defer to their husband when a poller calls – I know, I did calls for a Republican polling outfit for almost a year.
And if they do answer the questions, and their husbands are nearby, they may not tell the truth.
What I’m saying is, that there may well be a lot of these women who’ll tell their husbands, and pollsters, that they’re going to vote for the Republicans in the Presidential and Congressional races, and, when they come to vote, will vote for the Democrats, and when they walk out, lie to their husbands, and say they voted the straight Republican ticket – and even exit polls may not show that, because the husband will be nearby.
I wish I could be more specific myself of why I think this will happen, but I can’t. I just have a gut feeling – and normally, I HATE gut feelings. Maybe I’m projecting onto Conservative women something that isn’t there – but all it may take in some areas, is just a few women to do this, and all of a sudden, the election is a blow-out.
“I am getting the impression that he, and much of the rest of the Right, thought this election would be easily winnable”
This feels a lot like 2004, but with the Parties switched. The GOTV stuff I was doing at the time was really far more enthusiastic about how terrible Bush was. The enthusiasm wasn’t really about how good a President Kerry would be, but more that he was the candidate that could beat Bush in an election.
Republicans are saying the exact same thing now. Their enthusiasm certainly isn’t that Romney is this great Republican…. the base hated him and looked for anyone better. It’s all about how awful Obama is. (my personal favorite article)
I don’t see it as a mystery. As George W. said, it’s “awesome”, and it makes one famous and powerful. And you get to do big, big, big favors for the people you care about.
I wouldn’t want the job because I’d see it as a humbling and scary set of responsibilities, where people would live or die because of decisions I made, even minor ones. But then, I’m not Mitt Romney who probably doesn’t even think about those things.
“About the only thing that I think the Democratic Convention lacked, was an open-throated call for people to make sure they vote out the Republicans in the House and Senate.”
Agreed, but I can tell you the ground team DOES make sure to mention the down ticket when going door to door. NC could go Obama again, but the state leg. was over run by GOP thugs in the 2010 midterms and the Dem gov.– our only protection against the thugs is a lame duck. Unfortunately, the Republican is ahead of the Democrat in the race to replace her.
OMG! I read mcCarthy for the first time. His words form coherent sentences but he is making no sense. To say that a town can better feed and house the poverty stricken than federal government, or that the ACA is an “entitlement” – to whom? Forcing insurance companies to give us something we paid for can surely be seen as a regulation,which they hate more than entitlements.
To claim that they are losing because they are not far enough right is amazing. Maybe he should fly to Mars on the next mission. By then he will have alienated 99 % of Americans anyway. There’s so much more to gasp at if I cared. But I now need a shower.
I’ve “Favorited” Nate Silver’s Five Thirty Eight blog over on the NYT, since he’s never optimistic without good solid numbers to allow for it. Wonk joy is truly-deserved joy, imo.
At the moment, and of course it all could change suddenly, Silver’s got Obama at nearly an 80% chance of winning.
But I’m with Gulag, we need to take back Congress in order for the next four years to get a lot better. Anyone know where Nate Silver is hiding a state-by-state Congressional map of polling stats? I would obsess over that, too, though probably not with optimism.
@Tito, I absolutely loved Help Us Destroy Jesus and Start a New Age of Liberal Darkness. What’s amazing is that rightards really believe this – I’ve been hanging out in the gutter, the yahoo message boards, and going hand to hand with these people. The mid convention flap over the platform inclusion of “support for God and Jerusalem” proves it to these people.
The math just isn’t with Romney. Obama just has too many electoral votes to start with and doesn’t have to win that many more states to win. Romney has to win eleven toss up states, Obama just two. And Obama is ahead in almost all of those toss up states. The electorate doesn’t like the economy, but they blame Bush for it. They personally like Obama, and just can’t stand Romney.
The Lord speaks to us in mysterous ways.
Personally, I would stop dead in my tracks,sit down,and reevaluate my life if I ever found myself in a position where I had try to convince people that I have empathy.
I recently read a comment where a women said that she too suffers from MS. But where she couldn’t make the connection to Ann Romney was with Ann’s dancing horses.
Why is that and what did she mean?
moonbat ..Funny that you should mention the Yahoo message boards. I recently started posting over there, actually more like trolling for intelligence. I always post a message that can’t easily be distinguished for which side of the divide I fall , and always a level below the surface in understanding so as to seperate the sheep from the goats..I never engage a comment. I check my Yahoo notifications to see my return of thumbs up or down, and obviously so far I haven’t gotten any thumbs downs.
Another thing a I like about Yahoo is that it gives a sort of nostalgic feeling for the days of old when I used too wander about in AOL’s town squaresâ€” just minus the choice of fonts and colors.
All they had to do was present a candidate who looks like he could play a President on teevee
It’s not like it hasn’t worked for them before, with the long line of telegenic intellectual featherweights they’ve hoisted as Prez and VP candidates — GW Bush, Palin, Quayle, Reagan.
The Right is genuinely baffled as to why their guy isn’t winning by a mile.
Well, I can offer two words to help them sort out that confusion â€” Eddie Munster.
“The Right is genuinely baffled as to why their guy isn’t winning by a mile.
Well, I can offer two words to help them sort out that confusion â€” Eddie Munster.”
I love the part where mittens is castigating legislators — like his running mate– who voted for sequestration. Of course, we all know WHY sequestration happened…
Sure hope princess Ann never thinks to visit http://www.reality.com for a checkup on her connection speed! (Madeup site for humorous purpose. My leaning toward sarcasm does not play well on intertubes.)
I thought Romney would run out lies before November. But little did I know that he could refresh his lies by simply switching to another language.
Soy, Mitt Romney, y yo aprovado este mensaje.
This morning, it looks like Obama DID get a bounce.
And this morning, it looks like Cup O’ Schmoe and his crew from Politico, are hysterical.
Still plenty of time for a disaster. Keep your fingers crossed.
LongHairedWeirdo – You got it. Shortly after taking office, Bush invited a reporter to interview him in the Oval Office. Part way through the interview, Bush blurts out, “I’m thirsty.” A nano-second later a lackey appears, “Yes, Mr. President, what can I get for you.” Bush answers, “Water.” Within another nano-second the water appears.
After the lackey leaves the room, Bush turns to the reporter and says, “Now, that’s power.” (Interestingly, that ‘s about the only’thing’ the reporter ‘got’ out of the interview.)
buckyblue – The media have figured out how to hype this campaign by pushing the fable that about 7% of voters are still undecided and what they decide will determine the outcome of the election. Other than media hype to keep viewers on the edges of their couches, seems like poppycock to me, but, if true, the election may still be up for grabs.
While I think Obama will win in November, I am not at all optimistic about the future of America. First, I think the GOP will maintain control of the House and in all likelihood, take back the Senate. Then, count on four years of Obama investigations and another bogus impeachment attempt. Hey, it’s how these bastards roll! Finally, count on Jeb Bush running and winning in 2016. We have some fundamental stupidity problems to solve before things get better long-term.
Finally, count on Jeb Bush running and winning in 2016.
No, the Bush name is forever done in American politics….It’s beyond redemption.