Saturday Evening Post Midterms

As I write this the Dems are one seat away from keeping the Senate, and keeping the House is not yet mathematically impossible. I’m still reading post-mortems. The answer to the question of why Republicans didn’t do better seems to be that in several states — not all of them — where abortion rights had been shut down and a bunch of MAGA election deniers were running as Republicans, more independents and some centrist Republicans voted for the Democrats. So while people may have said they were mostly worried about the economy, a lot of them were voting abortion rights and saving democracy. Here’s a New Yorker article that explains this pretty well.

Dan Balz writes at WaPo that the elections turned into a kind of dual referendum on both Biden and Trump, and Trump lost. Balz also noted that congressional incumbents are mostly keeping their seats. Voters weren’t demanding big changes in Congress. I suspect what they want more than anything else is some stability. We’ve had enough drama. Some states flipped from red to blue, however.

Anyway, the anti-abortion nutjobs and Trump cost Republicans big time, and I suspect a lot of them are smart enough to realize that. Unfortunately for them, there is no way Trump will be persuaded to step aside graciously.

Update: Catherine Cortez Masto wins in Nevada, so Dems keep control of the Senate. Mitch is shut out once again.

22 thoughts on “Saturday Evening Post Midterms

  1. Generally, a pretty decent mid-term for the good guys!  Better than expected, and much better than feared.

    I just feel bad for Sean Patrick Maloney, who ran the Democrats' House efforts.

    The thing is, while the House D's WAAAAY over performed – to the point where we might still be able to keep the majority – Maloney lost his own race.  Part of the problem was that NY State lost a (or a couple of) district after the census.

    I like him.  My parents and I lived in his district.  And I was a volunteer in his first race, back in '12.

    A very nice guy.  Tough as nails.  Smart and competent.

    I no longer live in his district, but the D candidate here won.  It was a close race.

    He'll land on his feet.  

    • I saw Mahoney on the tee-vee, wasn't very gracious, blamed his loss on Hochul, not a good look especially for the DCCC chair?

    • I have a much differing opinion of Murphy.  He switched districts to defeat a progressive in the primary.  That cost the Dems the district he left and the district he changed to.  Too much Dem Leadership effort went into defeating progressives and too little into retaining the House.

  2. If the Republicans take the House, it will be by a narrow margin. Already, the Freedom Caucus is threatening to deny McCarthy the Speaker unless he agrees to….

    Fill in the blanks. The thing is, with the margin that small, the Freedom Caucus has more clout because they're still big enough to play dealbreaker. So they can make McCarthy dance to their tune even though their radical antics are what flattened the "red wave." 

    If true, we can expect the nuttiest wingnuts will get plum positions to elevate the stage of 'investigations.'  Trump is going to want the House to "defund" the DOJ until they give the Donald a stack of "Get Out Of Jail Free" cards. We will see but the wingnuttery will turn off voters even more, I think, leading up to 2024. 

    • So they can make McCarthy dance to their tune even though their radical antics are what flattened the "red wave." 

      Well, That's good for McCarthy. He doesn't possess the quality of character necessary to dance to his own tune. He's just a lying butt sucker who through either an intellectual deficit or a crippling insecurity can't muster the strength to be his own man. So, it's a good thing that the Freedom Caucus put him through the paces so he can fulfill his destiny as a sniveling butt sucker.

      Considering all the sucking up he has done to Trump he hasn't even been able to secure a ride in Trump's golf cart. Look at Lindsey, he hasn't done one tenth of the sucking up to Trump as McCarthy has, yet Lindsey has managed several weekend excursions riding shotgun in Trump's golf cart. That fact in itself should tell you everything you need to know about Kevin's skill as a potential marjority leader.

  3. The New Yorker interview with Nate Cole is quite revealing.  One can see that accurate polling demands incredible analysis and review to this analysis once votes are cast.  It suggests that poll accuracy is quite dependent upon the quality of the polling organization and the capability of the polling staff.  Getting accurate data is difficult.  More difficult is getting solid interpretation of that data. True the historical midterm pattern did not repeat this time.  Mr. Cole give us insights into why it did not.  

    Going forward, I think that it would be pretty foolish to be overly confident in our polls, or any polls. There’s at least a chance that midterm electorates are easier on pollsters than high-turnout electorates, because people who vote less often are less likely to participate in political surveys.

    So, regular voters are more pollable and predictable, while infrequent voters are much harder to predict by polling.  This is a factor which increases the error range in polling.  He also mentions crossover voting, but I could not find reference to that being atypical in this midterm.  I suspect in areas it was.  

      • I'd say lately it's the one that counts, counts, counts, sometimes recounts, and even goes to runoff at times,

    • I think the polls that are conducted within a campaign are useful to the campaign, the pre-election polls we hear about are mostly conducted for and by media companies, the only real purpose is teleprompter content, they have 24hrs everyday to fill!

  4. I really hope that Kari Lake goes down as well, the blame game, whining and finger pointing will be priceless! Oh the GQP tears!

  5. One of the most encouraging results is right next door in Michigan. They went all blue, both sides of the state house, governor, Sec. State all of it. It was only a couple years ago when they had hordes of GQP terrorists armed in the state house protesting the 2020 results. It looks like the people of Michigan saw that and said enough, hopefully it is a sign of things to come across the country, enough of these people!

  6. Just to add an addendum to my previous comment ( which hasn't shown up yet) concerning Josh Hawley. If you want to understand the essense of who Josh Hawley really is, go take a look at the character Dandy Mott featured on American Horror Story.

    Although the external differences in the characters might make it difficult to see the similarities, but a close examination stripped to the core and exposing the true being, clearly shows they are essentially one in same. Two peas in a pod…a condensed selfishness that is destructive to everything it encounters.

    • For me the devastating victory of DeSantis and Rubio in Florida has robbed me of any joy in savoring the democrat's successes in other parts of the country. I see it as Trumpism shedding its old skin to take a new and more dangerous form by way of DeSantis. DeSantis' scripture quoting and statement that Florida is now the place where woke comes to die tells me we are far from declaring victory.

      Both DeSantis and Rubio are despicable individuals, cowards of the greatest magnitude who beguile the rubes with their claims of being champions of freedom while enslaving them with their deceits and lies. I believe it was Abraham Lincoln who said,.. Those who deny freedom for others deserve it not for themselves.

      I pray that misfortune overtakes them both!

    • Sorry, this got doubled up, The home run comment was intended for the McCarthy effort though this one is excellent too.

    • No real argument here, just a nuance.  I saw a quote of Hawley's comment and what I remember is that he was saying the "old" Republican party is dead… time to bury it.  My reading is that he was saying that the old (sane) R party is dead, and he wants the party to go even further into fantasy land.

      I can't back that up, but so much of what politicians say is subject to multiple interpretations.

      • WaryTale, Your understanding of what Hawley was saying could very well be, but no matter how it is interpreted he's still salivating over the corpse that he created.

  7. I was just reading about Marie Gluesenkamp Perez's surprise win in Washington state, so reassuring to see an outcome like that!

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