I have limited time this morning, but consider this an open thread to discuss whatever. For example —

The indictments yesterday are either based on a dubious legal theory or quite strong, depending on whom you ask. The MSNBC crew last night said that the indictments list underlying crimes that could be tied to the false entries in business records with intent to defraud but didn’t bring charges on the underlying fraud, although Bragg still could. Andrew Weissmann speculated that some of the charges might be dismissed before trial, but not all of them.

Republicans are whining about the Wisconsin Supreme Court election. Good article, no paywall. Discuss.

I’m expecting an avalanche of commentary on the indictments late this afternoon. I have no doubt that battalions of legal experts are standing by ready to crank out analyses.

In the meantime, one of the best things I’ve read today is by Dahlia Lithwick:

While he has done yeoman’s work raising funds in the days since his indictment was announced ($4 million in the first 24 hours), it’s not clear whether that translates to actual minions in the street, poised to light a match for him yet again. As Aymann Ismail reported Monday, it’s awfully hard to predict the actions of uncoordinated angry extremists, but experts don’t see a lot of the markers of a coordinated insurrection campaign, despite TV threats-slash-demands that they occur. Perhaps that’s why the former president has already decided he’ll return to Mar-a-Lago Tuesday night in order to deliver an address from there—a streamed address doesn’t have to reveal the crowd size, after all. And at Mar-a-Lago, the sets still suggest he’s a king.

It’s almost as if—much like the ex-president himself—even the most emboldened supporters of Donald Trump now exist mostly in the frothy ether between Twitter and Truth Social, between Reddit and Tucker Carlson and Marjorie Taylor Greene’s busted memory chip. Asked to travel through corporeal time, in their actual bodies, to the streets of New York, where they might end up being deemed legally responsible for their actions, most of the zeal falls away. We can thank the January 6 committee and the prosecution of over 1,000 insurrectionists for the possibility that bodily, monetary, and liberty-based accountability may have been enough, this time, to deter another band of Trump enthusiasts from unloosing the violent protest he has repeatedly demanded of them in recent days.

Even so, the New York Times reports a Trump rally in lower Manhattan near the courthouses today (no paywall).

Scores of demonstrators from both sides began amassing hours before Mr. Trump, 76, was due at the Manhattan Criminal Courts Building, with a pro-Trump rally outside the courthouse headlined by Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, a far-right Republican from Georgia. …

…The appearance by Ms. Greene, who supports conspiracy theories and has falsely suggested that Democrats support pedophilia, had brought a crush of onlookers and counterprotesters.

Police were separating pro- and anti-Trump demonstrators in Collect Pond Park, keeping an aisle — and an array of officers — between the two groups, who were largely peaceful, though at least one small skirmish broke out. Ms. Greene’s arrival was accompanied by heavy security.

“Go back to Georgia!” one person shouted. …

…During a City Hall news conference on Monday, Mayor Eric Adams warned protesters from out of state to “control yourselves.”

“New York City’s our home, not a playground for your misplaced anger,” the mayor said, provoking a furious response from Ms. Greene, who falsely accused the mayor of sending “henchmen” to the pro-Trump event on Tuesday.

It might have been fun to see MTG subjected to the full NYPD crowd control treatment.  Your average henchmen are a mild and forbearing crew compared to New York’s finest. But the day isn’t over yet. Perhaps we can still hope.

Insider reports that only about 100 protesters showed up with Marjorie Taylor Greene. It isn’t clear if that number included just Trump supporters or all protesters. They were in Collect Pond Park, it says. As I recall, Collect Pond Park only occupies a square block or so. It’s basically a small pond and picnic tables surrounded by courthouses. Court employees eat their bag lunches there in nice weather.

Well, more later, I’m sure.

Today’s pun: Alvin Bragg is about to arraign on Trump’s parade.

Let’s talk about Trump’s bargain basement lawyers. Bess Levin writes at Vanity Fair,

One of the funniest subplots in the Donald Trump Indictment Show—which centers on the hush money payment made to porn star Stormy Daniels in 2016—involves the multiple reports that, after predicting to his followers that he would be arrested on March 21, the ex-president and his allies came to believe he was in the clear.

Trump, The Washington Post reported late Thursday, “had grown cautiously optimistic” in recent days, after “advisers had counseled him that a possible indictment by a Manhattan grand jury…would not come for some time—if at all.” The former president, the outlet noted, was apparently so unconcerned about the prospect of being charged that he’d “even begun joking about ‘golden handcuffs,’” which is probably not something one does if one thinks there’s a legitimate possibility they might be indicted, convicted, and sentenced to time in prison. “It was a surprise to everybody,” David Urban, a longtime Trump adviser, told the Post, which noted that “some of his lawyers had been preparing to take a few days off.” Following the indictment, The New York Times similarly reported that “Trump and his aides were caught off guard by the timing, believing that any action by the grand jury was still weeks away and might not occur at all.” The paper of record noted that Trump had recently been “telling nearly anyone that he was in a good mood and that he believed the case against him by Alvin Bragg, the Manhattan district attorney, had fallen apart.”

These people should be watching MSNBC instead of Fox News. The crew at MSNBC, people like Joyce Vance, Barbara McQuade, Charles F. Coleman, Andrew Weissmann, etc., were all stressing that we can’t know what’s going to happen or when it might happen. An indictment could happen any day. An indictment could happen in a couple of months. Maybe there won’t be an indictment. Nothing is certain. Listen to the smart people, guys, not the nutjob on Fox News who thinks Nancy Pelosi secretly organized the January 6 mob for her daughter’s documentary.

But, really, one would think that any lawyer with any experience with grand juries ought to have known not to be complacent. Maybe the only lawyers willing to work for Trump any more are the ones who really need the work.

The New York Times’s Maggie Haberman was asked about how Team Trump took the news.

They’re still trying to assess what is happening on a few fronts. One is the political front, which I’d say they were most prepared on.

Another is the legal front, which is messy because his team has had a lot of infighting, and there’s finger pointing about why they were so caught off guard. The lawyers also don’t yet know the charges because it’s a sealed indictment.

Finally, there is the emotional front. While Trump is not said to be throwing things, he is extremely angry and his family is, not surprisingly, rattled.

Back to Bess Levin,

Of course, the biggest indication that Trump indeed believed he’d outrun Bragg? His taking to Truth Social on Wednesday to write: “I HAVE GAINED SUCH RESPECT FOR THIS GRAND JURY, & PERHAPS EVEN THE GRAND JURY SYSTEM AS A WHOLE…. THE GRAND JURY IS SAYING, HOLD ON, WE ARE NOT A RUBBER STAMP, WHICH MOST GRAND JURIES ARE BRANDED AS BEING, WE ARE NOT GOING TO VOTE AGAINST A PREPONDERANCE OF EVIDENCE OR AGAINST LARGE NUMBERS OF LEGAL SCHOLARS ALL SAYING THERE IS NO CASE HERE.” Sure, that could have been an unabashed attempt to sway the jurors through flattery—but, in retrospect, those very much sound like the words of a man who was extremely confident he was not going to be indicted. “Such respect”! “The grand jury system as a whole”! “The grand jury is saying, hold on”! Do you think he still stands by these statements? If there were ever a time for the internet-ism “ROTFLMAO,” it would be now.

See also Donald Trump is melting down on Truth Social over his indictment.

In another entry for the How Stupid Are These People? file, Byron York is whining about the indictment “secrecy.” It’s a grand jury, dude. That’s how the system works. We’ll see the charges at the arraignment.

In other news: The Washington Post reports that the DoJ is said to have more evidence of possible Trump obstruction at Mar-a-Lago. Here’s the gist of it:

Responding to the indictment, Republicans are taking the position that no part of the criminal justice system can legitimately involve itself in anything Trump does, no matter what. Yes, they are in effect saying he’s above the law. And then they turn around and say that any legal action against Trump must be crushed and not allowed to go forward, in order to protect the “rule of law.” Seriously, I’ve seen them say that today.

Bill Barr, who is weirdly unable to learn from experience, has already rendered his astute legal judgment on the indictment even though he can’t possible know what’s in it.

‘The legal theory is pathetically weak. The case is held together by chicken wire and paper clips and rubber bands. It’s a lousy case. And it’s a shameful episode in our history where this local prosecutor is trying to effect the political process by bringing this case,’ Barr railed.

Barr is long past the point of caring about his reputation as an expert on law, I take it. He’s still just a shill for Trump. And Lindsey Graham practically melted down in hysteria on Fox News after the indictment. I have yet to see a single Republican of any stature step forward to say “Let’s let this process play out.” If it’s such a weak case, why are they so hysterical about it?

Paul Waldman:

To be clear, the indictment itself might prove to be a weak case. Trump might be charged with falsifying business records, but to make that a felony, that falsification would have to conceal another crime. To fit that bill, prosecutors might try to classify the hush money payment as an improper campaign finance violation.