Regarding Trump’s eligibility to be POTUS per the 14th Amendment — Kate Riga at TPM has a rundown on what people are doing to get Trump declared ineligible. See also Protecting the Constitution from Trump by Gerard N. Magliocca at Washington Monthly. Although it’s a long shot to work, at the moment enough important people are taking it seriously that the ineligibility theory needs to be factored into the Republican nomination contest. Next year’s presidential elections are likely to be an even bigger chaotic nightmare than these things usually are.
Also at TPM, see The Plutocrats’ Low Energy Bark by Josh Marshall. Josh Marshall wonders why no alternative to Trump has broken out of the pack. “The only surprise to me is that there hasn’t been any coalescence behind a new guy, even as DeSantis’s campaign has become little more than a running joke,” he writes.
Along these lines, Chris Sununu, the Republican governor of New Hampshire and son of odious piece of slime John Sununu, whom I’m sure many of you remember, has an op ed in the New York Times. In this Sununu the Younger practically begs the GOP presidential candidates to stop tip-toeing around Trump and go after him. He is certain that Trump would not only lose the 2024 election but would be a disaster for other GOP candidates. “Every candidate with an (R) next to their name, from school board to the statehouse, will be left to answer for the electoral albatross at the top of the ticket,” he writes. And he thinks Trump is beatable, not just in the general but in the primaries as well.
The headlines tell us that Trump’s lead over the other candidates is growing. But to continue Sununu’s argument, this is partly because the “other” votes are being broken up among so many other candidates. “After the results from Iowa come in, it is paramount that the field must shrink, before the New Hampshire primary, to the top three or four,” Sununu writes. Candidates who stay in the race who have no viable way to win need to be called out.
The Republican base makes no sense to me. I’m not going to predict that some not-Trump candidate can somehow catch fire and challenge His Orangeness, or which one that might be.
And if Trump realizes he has a genuine rival for the nomination, there could be a literal bloodbath. Trump is fighting for his life. He’ll stop at nothing to get his way.
Are you calling us old??
(It’s true, we are old)
I didn't say "old."
It was the early '90s that John Sununu was a thing.
I don't think of that as "old". But then, I'm old.
"or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof,"
This is the clause of the 14th Amendment that gives me pause. I think there's overwhelming evidence because of what Trump did NOT do for hours on J6 to end the riot and from the tone of the tweet after the insurrection had failed:
" Go Home. We love you. You're very special."
Jack Smith may have evidence now (or soon) that proves Trump supported the riot while it was going on. What about this December '22 Truth Social post by Trump?
"…A Massive Fraud of this type and magnitude allows for the termination of all rules, regulations, and articles, even those found in the Constitution,…"
The clip of Ashley Babbit's death is public record. Trump has called the shooter a "murderer." There is this disturbing distortion of photographic evidence:
"…wonderful woman, young woman, who went to peaceful protest,…"
I think a powerful case that Trump is ineligible can be made in a court of law. The trick is getting it into a court of law, and when. Two conservative justices would have to join the liberal justices to declare Trump violated his oath of office. But the Federalist Society seems to have endorsed the idea that Trump can't run.
Suppose that happened. Trump can NOT be sworn in as POTUS. Does anyone see Trump accepting this gracefully? Is Trump going to support the nominee of the GOP if it's not HIM? Most GOP candidates will promise to pardon Trump if elected. Problem: does Trump make nice with the GOP until he gets his pardon or does he rage against the Republicans who brought Trump to ruin? I mean a call to open rebellion against the GOP, the USSC, the Democrats, and the Constitution? Because Trump will be going to jail if he doesn't become president. Georgia and very possibly Arizona will prosecute Trump for election fraud. Donations to Trump's legal fund will dry up. Trump's co-conspirators will know they are going down – they will turn on Trump like hungry rats.
If Trump can't run, doesn't that mean Biden is in grave danger? His favorability numbers aren't great. In theory, if Trump ran as hard for the GOP candidate as hard as he'd run for himself, the GOP candidate could pick up a LOT of the cultist votes. (But not all – some won't bother to vote of they can't vote for Trump.) Can the GOP candidate run to the center and pick up moderate votes? I don't see how. The fetus people won't allow moderation on abortion rights. That issue alone is killing the GOP. The Trumpsters will want Trump-style hate. A clear majority thinks Trump should stand trial – the public announcement before the election that Trump will not be subject to the law won't thrill moderates.
Trump will win the GOP nomination unless the USSC pulls the rug out. IMO, Trump will either openly call for revolution or Trump will flee the US.
Pass the popcorn.
My $1 made a difference. WaPo listed the Rs that qualified for the upcoming debate, and Asa Hutchison made the list (sorry no link). Eight candidates made the cut.
Re Article 14 – Litman said the main problem is what the Supreme Court will do with it. It thrusts them into the (political) position of deciding who's an insurrectionist.
It is more a police line-up than a debate. The soon to be certified criminal will not be in the line-up as most of this group are running for VP. Pence is not among them nor Christie or Hutchinson. All of the others will deny the validity of the last election, and most will offer pardons. Pence has already shown himself to be to hard on vice, so unfit for a re-run.
All of the applicants will be pro guns, radically anti-abortion, pro large carbon footprints, and tolerant of white supremacy. So, what is there really to debate? No one will propose any solutions to any real problems or any tax increases, especially on the ones that benefit most from their seats of power and influence. Besides, real debates have rules. This is more a parade of rule benders if not out and out rule breakers and potential accomplices. A herd of dark horses leads the parade, so all members of the band are advised to watch their step, It will be plentiful and deep all along the route.
"I think a powerful case that Trump is ineligible can be made in a court of law. The trick is getting it into a court of law, and when."
I read that Governor Newsome is going to have Trump banned from the ballot based on the 14th amendment. Someone in Trumpworld will absolutely file a lawsuit against it, which means it will go to court fairly soon, I imagine – and from there to the Obscene (oops, I mistyped 'Supreme') Court.
The question is, how will they decide? It's pretty certain that Thomas and Alito will side with Trump…and probably Barrett. Sotomayor, Jackson and Kagan will, I'm sure, vote to keep him off the ballot. That leaves Gorsuch, Kavanaugh and Roberts.
I think Roberts has enough judicial integrity to follow the Constitution and the evidence. That leaves Gorsuch and Kavanaugh, both of whom have shown hints of judicial and legal ability…so I think there is a chance it could be decided that he is not eligible.
We'll see.