Michigan Primary: Did It Mean Anything?

The Michigan primary showed Nikki Haley losing whatever steam she had. I’ve been thinking she would stay in at least until after Super Tuesday, which is next week, but we’ll see.

On the Dem side, with 95 percent of votes counted, President Biden has 81.1 percent of the vote; uncommitted 13.3 percent; Marianne Williamson 3.0 percent, and Dean Phillips 2.7 percent. Yes, once again we see Dean “no steam” Phillips having a worse night than New Age Snake Oil Saleswoman Marianne Williamson, even after Williamson had suspended her campaign. Unfortunatelly Williamson was so encouraged by her distant third finish she unsuspended her campaign. I’m not sure what she thinks she’s going to accomplish. There will be no Dem primary television debates, which I assume helped her sell a lot of books in 2000.

Josh Marshall has an interesting observation about “uncommitted.”

There’s a significant difference between the breakdown of the primary day and the early/mail vote. The gist is that the primary day vote is significantly better for “uncommitted” and the early/mail vote better for Biden. The net effect of this is that Biden seems to be adding to his margins now since the primary day vote was in most cases getting counted first. So for instance, Dearborn (which is the heart of the state’s Arab-American community) had been like 75% for uncommitted. But now it’s at roughly 55% to 41% as the early votes get counted.

Dearborn is in Wayne County, which currently has 17 percent for uncommitted.

I have a few theories. But they’re just that.

My read of the overall contest is that there was a lot of coverage of an anti-Biden protest vote. That spurred what amounts to a normie-Dem driven counter-protest. That’s what gets you such an overall high turnout. The normies I would guess are more consistent voting Democrats who tend to be higher educated and more affluent. Those folks do a lot of voting by mail and early voting in all elections. The uncommitted meanwhile seems heavily centered in the college towns and perhaps in less consistently voting immigrant communities. It seems plausible that those were more primary day voting groups. Again, this last point is informed speculation.

That’s probably as good an explanation as any, until a better one comes along. I suspect President Biden will need those uncommitted votes to win Michigan in November, so I hope he takes the message they’re sending very seriously. U.S. foreign policy should have gotten tougher on Bibi Netanyahu a long time ago. On many occasions Biden has said with some pride that he has worked with every Israeli Prime Minister since Golda Meir. Some of the young folks who voted “uncommitted” yesterday possibly never heard of Golda Meir and don’t remember when she was a much-loved figure in the U.S. But her days have long passed, and it’s time the U.S. faced that.

In other news: A “star witness” for the Trump lawyers’ side of the contest to disqualify Fani Willis failed to deliver anything approximating “testimony” at a hearing yesterday. How long is this nonsense going to drag on?

Also, too: Mitch McConnell is going to step down from his Senate leadership position in November.

2 thoughts on “Michigan Primary: Did It Mean Anything?

  1. "U.S. foreign policy should have gotten tougher on Bibi Netanyahu a long time ago"

    At a minimum. I would argue Biden never should have embraced Bibi at all. Anyone with half a brain could see this murderous rampage coming. Bibi's power comes from the fundie settlers who really are akin to the "Alt-right christian nationalists" in this country. Instead of railing against minorities and queer folk Bibi's stooges are all about ridding Israel of all Palestinians and stealing their land, plus they are way more violent than our batch of facists! Biden's embrace of Bibi and his continued reluctance to pull the rug out from under Bibi really makes me question his judgement. It won't make me not vote for him but it damn well could cost him Michigan, he only won the state by 150,000 votes in 2020, he lost almost that to uncommitted and the two loons Williams and Phillips yesterday. Hopefully Biden puts the kibosh on Bibi's rampage soon, not just for his chances to beat Stump but at the current rate we are going lose another 30,000 Palestinian civilians. Enough!

  2.  "I’ve been thinking she would stay in at least until after Super Tuesday, which is next week, but we’ll see."

    What the eff else does she have to do?  Why not practice campaigning? What’s the downside?

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