Since I don’t have a car, I spent much of yesterday either riding on or waiting for buses to get to a phone repair shop. Which I finally did, and as the proprietor was testing the battery, which was fine, the phone came back to life. So now the phone is working again, no charge for the fix, but what an exhausting hassle. And Mercury is not in retrograde; I checked.
Okay, so where was I? Much of the news over the past few days has been about Trump’s falling poll numbers. He’s not just historically unpopular; with the exception of “border security” his “policies” are underwater as well. The majority do not like his handling of the economy, or of immigrants, or anything else. Yet he’s not getting the message. Jennifer Rubin writes that Trump is doubling down rather than backing off.
Whether it is court decisions, nominees, or taxing everyday American consumers, Trump seems so wedded to boneheaded ideas that he might continue insisting on upping the ante rather than cutting his losses. In doing so, he will likely wipe out a table of Republicans who have stood by him but will soon have to stand for reelection.
It’s becoming increasingly easy to understand how he bankrupted all those casinos.
Josh Marshall writes that Trump has already lost.
I see the signs all around. He’s doubling down on things people don’t like. He’s fomenting a growing political backlash. The more signs we see of the limits of Trump’s power, the more people show signs of bucking that power. All power is unitary. We see signs of it everywhere. You simply cannot impose an autocracy if a clear majority of the country opposes what you are trying to do at the outset, when you are trying to do it.
They are now reacting to initial resistance by doubling down on things that are not popular. They appear to be upset that they’ve managed to have fewer deportations during Trump’s first hundred days in office than Biden had in his last hundred. Now they’re going to crack down on local officials and are threatening more indictments of judges and other officials who get in their way.
Good luck getting 12 jurors to convict any of these people.
Nobody is saying that the administration is going to collapse soon. It’s going to be a couple of months before the effects of the tariffs hit the retail stores, and consumers.
We still don’t know what’s going to happen to Medicaid. The last I heard, the Republicans in the House were considering ending the federal subsidy (which covers about 90 percent of the cost) and telling the states they can keep Medicaid if they can fund it themselves. It doesn’t seem to occur to any of these people that it’s the Red states that will cancel it immediately. But these often are the states, especially the rural ones, that need Medicaid the most, to keep hospitals open and their larger percentages of poor people from losing all access to medical care. Cutting Medicaid will be economically devastating to large (and very Red) parts of the country. Are Republican politicians collectively trying to shoot themselves in the foot?
The House also is talking about work requirements for receiving Medicaid. This has been done in some states; it usually just adds a lot of administrative cost and hassle and doesn’t save the state any money. I’m not sure what percentage of Medicaid recipients are either seniors or children, but it’s probably a lot.
Not surprisingly the U.S. economy shrank in the first quarter. Not surprisingly, Trump blamed Joe Biden.
“This is Biden’s Stock Market, not Trump’s,” Trump posted to his Truth Social platform after the economic news dropped, and markets braced to open lower.
“I didn’t take over until January 20th. Tariffs will soon start kicking in, and companies are starting to move into the USA in record numbers.
“Our Country will boom, but we have to get rid of the Biden ‘Overhang.’ This will take a while, has NOTHING TO DO WITH TARIFFS, only that he left us with bad numbers, but when the boom begins, it will be like no other. BE PATIENT!!!”
But most economists are telling us there is no way the economy will get better as long as Trump refuses to completely change course. It’s probably not too late to salvage a decent economy out of the mess, but Trump is unlikely to let that happen.
So there we are.
Worth reading: Jamelle Bouie, The New Deal Is a Stinging Rebuke to Trump and Trumpism.
Update: Josh Marshall is calling out House Republicans on the Medicaid cuts.
What we haven’t had until recently is good data for how many constituents House moderates are ready to axe. But now the Center for American Progress has mushed together budget and census data to show the number of people who lose coverage by district with each option.
So let’s start with one of my favorites: New York Republican Mike Lawler (NY-17). Under the $880 billion proposal, 42,000 of Lawler’s constituents lose their health care coverage. Under the Obamacare cuts, the number who lose their health care is 25,300. It’s fewer but … more than 25,000 of his constituents lose their health care. It’s even wilder when you look at Nicole Malliotakis (NY-11) just south on Staten Island. Under the big slash, 79,000 of her constituents lose their health care coverage. That’s more than 10% of the people in her district. Under the kinder, gentler slash that Politico says the moderates want, the number is 58,800. Ummm okay, only 8%.
Lemme throw in one more detail. Speaker Mike Johnson? 88,000 lose coverage under the big slash — and 59,800 under the kinder, gentler slash.
Lawler is my congressman. Awhile back he was running Facebook ads promising to not touch Medicaid. I knew he’d cave; the only question was how much.
Welcome Back!
Why does the economy and the markets suck: “This is Biden’s Stock Market, not Trump’s,”
Why haven't you ended the Ukraine war in 24 hours: “This is Biden’s war, not Trump’s,”
Donald J. Trump "THE BUCK STOPS OVER THERE"!
When will our media stop reporting on anything he says as having meaning? The man is a complete imbecile everything he says is complete poppycock none of it means one god damn thing. All is does is run his fucking mouth.
NEWSFLASH,,,,,
This just in….
Donald Trump has just declared that the San Andreas Fault has been renamed the Biden Fault.
In an incomprehensible statement, Trump said "San Andreas came to me, tears in his eyes, and said "Sir………….
Regarding Medicaid reimbursement, the threat is to Medicaid expansion in the ACA. Normal Medicaid is paid for on a sliding scale, 50-80% paid by the feds, but Medicaid for coverage of all people up to whatever-% of the poverty line, under the ACA, is paid at 90%. Republicans want to move that 90% to the same sliding scale.
Even the wealthiest states probably can't afford to maintain the expansion at that sliding scale level, but, Republicans will blame that on the governors of those states.
This lets Republicans claim they're cutting Medicaid to "save it for the truly deserving!" and that they're "not cutting benefits to anyone who deserves Medicaid" and so forth.
Honest journalism would shred the story, and the Republican Party, to bits. But honest journalism is bad business – if you piss off the Trump supporters, you'll go out of business, and won't be able to keep making money by lying to the public, so, people try some truly, staggeringly, dishonest journalism, the kind they never used to run, because this kind of story – where you hide the plain truth, to make the lie easier to sell – should be a paid political advertisement, not a straight "news" story.
"Republicans want to cut Medicaid, especially the ACA expansion," is the story. Getting quickly into the weeds about 50-80% versus 90% reimbursements is bad storytelling, IMHO. That's the sort of thing that should be near the end of the story, where you're explaining the stuff no one really wants to know, but need to know, for full understanding. "Republicans claim they are only changing the reimbursement rate for Medicaid, but the actual numbers show that this won't work, here are the DOLLAR FIGURES which show they're lying."
(This is all my humble opinion about the journalism I've seen around the Medicaid cuts – I hope it doesn't sound like I'm dumping on your post. I maintain that a lot of stuff that's pushed to the front paragraphs should be in the final paragraphs, where equations, exercises, and excuses, belong.)
Thanks; you explained it better.
While I agree that the press has not been aggressive about holding feet to the fire for lies and doubletalk, they have not caved. Polls that report Trump's numbers are on the front page. The economic contraction is reported in context (the first decline in GDP in three years.) Fox and other right-wing sources are trying to spin,, deflect and withhold bad news but the poll numbers especially suggest voters are partially aware and displeased.
The complete subversion of the press has not happened – as long as that's true, consider this metaphor. If all the weather forecasting was under Trump's control, every day would be a perfect day. It would be predicted that the daytime weather will not be hot: it will only rain at night. And the real weather would happen anyway. IMO, people will notice the hottest weather they can recall. Trump can't prevent people from having their own outside thermometer. When it rains buckets and you didn't bring an umbrella, you will be pissed about being soaked to the skin. The point being: we don't need the media to warn people that Trump and company will pull medical coverage from vets, from seniors, and from children. It will happen. People will notice. It will be reported, locally and nationally. Attempts to blame it on Biden will be unconvincing since people know they HAD these benefits under Biden.
I just finished an in-depth article about the corner the GOP has painted themselves into. To satisfy fiscal hawks, there must be deep cuts if they (fiscal hawks) will vote for the reconciliation budget bill. The only places where there are the big bucks (other than untouchable defense spending) is Meidcare, Medicaid, Social Security, and the VA. I think some of them mean it and they can't afford to lose more than two votes in the House. Medicaid has long been painted as welfare for illegal aliens and lazy welfare cheats (always with the dig that they are people of color.) This plays well on Fox but the deep cuts (over 800 billion) to Medicaid will skewer a large swath of Trump voters in bright red states.
Here is where the rubber meets the road. Trump (reportedly) does not want his MAGA bas to abandon him. Deep cuts that slice poor white conservative voters is NOT what they voted for. THEY are entitled to benefits – Trump is supposed to punish THOSE people. The numbers don't add up. Johnson advanced the bill by promising everybody everything and it can't happen. Vulnerable Republicans in the House know that they will be out in 2026 if huge numbers of Republicans lose access to health care, or if rural access evaporates because of cuts. Families notice when Granny dies for lack of treatment. Fiscal hawks feel this is their last chance to bury the New Deal. Trump wants to run in 2028 so Trump will try to split the difference which will not please either side.
This is insoluble – the likely outcome will be a protracted debate and negotiation WHILE THE ECONOMY GETS WORSE. To keep the country running, the GOP will have to pass a CR this summer and they will need Democrats to vote for it.
Inanimate objects rebel on occasion, a phenomenon known as resistentialism. Seems that these fictional omens have been hard at it in the NY area, hopefully not aided by right-wing taxpayer assisted omens now at large in the States. Might I suggest a back-up plan B with simplicity and economy which is insulated and isolated from the internet and malicious viruses of sorts. (note; the spellchecker rebels at resistentialism and viri)
Just 100 days? It feels like a decade.
Worse than a truckload of Sam Brownbacks.
Does the shortage of children's toys forbode a shortage of adult toys? Some inquiring minds might want to know. Check your local tabloid for information if concerned.
David French is a must read in the NYT with a piece entitled The Christian Right is Dead the Religious Right killed it. Here is a couple of teases:
Onward in time under the curse of interesting (but unwelcome) moments and days. Beware of uprisings of inanimate objects which forbodes the potential disaster caused by AI (which is not a steak sauce) but is inanimate.
I read the David French column. Some Christian conservatives really are noticing that the "political" Christians have no connection to any form of Christian theology. It took them a while, but they're slowiy catching on.
The media is certainly doing its part, giving Trump plenty undeserved benefit of the doubt from a usually helpful media. There's "reporting" like this:
"Early in his second term, President Trump is struggling to deliver on his campaign trail promises to invigorate the U.S. economy."
I've seen several MSM reports like this using this framing of "struggling." At one time right after the election, with a Trump victory safely in hand, some finally admitted that the Biden economy was actually strong. But now that Trump has messed everything up, the theme we get is he's "struggling" to "fix" things, with wiggle room to imply they were messed up before him, and little acknowledgement of the fact that Trump was handed a good economy that he screwed up. They also fail to report that he's really not working on fixing anything, instead reporting his usual lies to buy time ("wait and see!") and insisting the facts are wrong, as if that's a solution, presented as “Trump believes” because in Trump's "mind," such as it is, there is no problem, everything is working just fine. That's not someone "struggling" to "fix" anything; that's a fool too incompetent to grasp a problem of his own making, and too dishonest to accept responsibility for his failures. They allow him to get away with blaming Biden and won't report how much trouble we're actually in with his "leadership."
I don't know if Trump really believes what he's saying will happen, or this is his usual con man BS and narcissistic hubris that prevents him from admitting error and changing course, doubling down just to spite people in the business of knowing who are pointing it out. As he often tells it, he knows more about everything, than anybody, and it seems that's the basis for the MSM now wanting us to believe that too, e.g. "give him time."
We're not even six months in, and economically, we're in big trouble. The sooner the facts can be reported, the sooner more people will maybe come around to the reality that Trump is driving this country off a cliff and maybe we can stop this before its too late. I wish I could be optimistic, but at this rate, I can't.
"I don't know if Trump really believes what he's saying will happen, or this is his usual con man BS and narcissistic hubris that prevents him from admitting error and changing course"
Oh it's his usual con man bullshit, he doesn't really believe anything at all. He's been spewing the same retro-grade word salad his entire life. He's a bullshit artist. He's an empty vessel filled with 5th grade level marketing nonsense. Whats worse is this time around he has surrounded himself with equally ignorant empty vessel yes men/women who only heap praise on each of his failures. All he can do is run his fucking mouth.
We are a half-way to a recession, just three months (a quarter) to go.
Say bye-bye to our soft landing. Await instructions and damage report or worse. Much turbulence and high risk of pilot error. Situation volatile and unstable. Prognosis guarded. What we called SNAFU in the military.
But not FUBAR. The economic problems are baked in now – the questions are how bad and for how long. This country survived the Great Depression. Roosevelt's early government spending strengthened infrastructure and we were poised to step in to save Europe in WWII.
I remain hopeful that things will get bad enough for long enough that voters pay attention to the fundamental reforms that will save true democracy so that true democracy can save mankind. We (hopefully are not "beyond all repair." At the top of my list is the basic principle: erect a wall of separation between our government and big money. This solves no problems but it puts all problems in reach of solution.
Here we see a perennial characteristic of the American "conservative," their cartoonishly evil stupidity. There is no other way to describe it: D Party focus groups that try to get people's opinions about R policy preferences founder, because the participants flatly refuse to believe that Rs have the policy preferences which Rs have loudly proclaimed that they hold. Because those preferences are so cartoonish, so stupid, and so malevolent that of course no Serious Person could possibly think or want that!
And since R officials are Very Serious People (our legacy media spare no effort at maintaining this fiction: they appear to believe that keeping up this particular appearance is their main job function), they cannot possibly think or want those things!
It is a problem, that I think is best addressed by admitting that legacy media are all 100% objectively pro-R, that "objective news coverage" is something that stopped happening(1) in the early 1980s, and that the Ds need some pro-D media if they hope ever to create a more favorable information environment than the shitshow of disinformation and bullshit that we now swim in.
(1) I will not argue about whether there was ever such a thing as objective (without scare quotes) reporting. “Objective” reporting was an artifact of the Cold War, I am convinced, when the Right was so existentially terrified that they muzzled their nutcase faction and went along with the New Deal/Civil Rights programs for anti-Communist reasons.
"I see the signs all around. He’s doubling down on things people don’t like. He’s fomenting a growing political backlash."
Yes – 47 is doubling down on his unpopular policies, which is stupid…or is it? What if he's deliberately making more and more people angry in order to create bigger and bigger protests around the country? If the protests get big enough and widespread enough, he can declare a national emergency and impose martial law, which he's repeatedly been advised to do by his far right "advisors"…and which, I suspect, he would love to do. He's often praised dictators for their ability to make people do what the dictator wants…which is usually by subjecting them to heavy handed military backed enforcement.