Schrödinger’s Ceasefire?

So yesterday evening Trump announced a cease fire with great exuberance and way too many exclamation points on Truth Social. And in a phone interview he confidently predicted the ceasefire would last forever.

“I think the ceasefire is unlimited. It’s going to go forever,” Trump said in a phone interview.

Asked whether the war was completely over, Trump said: “Yes. I don’t believe they will ever be shooting at each other again.”

Forever didn’t last long.

President Donald Trump said that he is “not happy” that Israel fired fresh rockets at Iran, adding that he is also displeased with Iran. He said today that he believed both sides violated the ceasefire, adding in a post on social media afterward that the truce remains in effect.

How can it be “in effect” if the two sides are still firing missiles at each other?

But soon after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced Tuesday morning that Israel had accepted Trump’s plan, the Israeli military said it had identified a missile launched from Iran toward its territory—and vowed to launch new strikes in response.

Iran denied firing a missile after the ceasefire began but warned that it would give a “decisive and regretful response” if Israel resumed its attacks.

Outside the White House on Tuesday morning, a visibly angry Trump ranted against “gutless” and “loser” TV news networks and said he was unhappy with both Israel and Iran. His frustration, however, was especially directed at Israel, which he said needed to “calm down.”

Some poor sap in the House had already nominated Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize because of the Great Ceasefire Deal. The Nobel Committee may be less than impressed.

But Trump always way underestimates how difficult long-standing problems are to solve. I mean, Nobody knew health care was so complicated, right?

8 thoughts on “Schrödinger’s Ceasefire?

  1. The words Israel and ceasefire are completely incompatible. But since diaper Don doesn't pay attention and has nothing but boot lickers working for him he will never realize that fact. How anyone could possibly believe that Israel, who has been attacking its neighbors since its creation would abide by a ceasefire with Iran is beyond belief. What will really be funny is how Stump is going to explain the next bombing bibi orders him to do after he declared Iran's nuclear program completely obliterated?

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  2. A contest of the world's biggest con artists.  Who claimed there was some kind of code of ethics among liars and crooks?

    • Good point.  It has been understood for centuries that ""There is no honor among thieves""

    • The only things I know about him are that he's 1) a Democratic Socialist, and 2) his last name isn't Cuomo (haven't we had enough?). Thrilled by his upset win.

  3. T**** or Tr*** orT***p?  I'm going with T***p because it lists too far to the right.  Zobran is certainly the anti T***p of the lot.   He ran on the social side as the antisocial side is in a clusterf**k.  Bleeping bleeps everywhere of late.   

  4. IMO, what we have here is a "Kayfabe* War" followed by a "Kayfabe Peace", and I'm fine with that, because it's surely better than the Real War which it replaced. 

    Israel attacked Iran with bombs, missiles, drones, and targeted assassinations of key leaders.

    Iran responded with missile attacks on Israel.  (Drones too, but none of those got through).

    This went on for a week or so; neither side was really "winning", but I'd say that Israel was losing more (and if it continued, they were likely to run out of air-defense weapons before Iran ran out of missiles…).  Israel's only hope – indeed, probably their original intent – was to drag Uncle Sugar in to win the war for them.

    In this one case, we're lucky that Trump is President (never thought I'd ever say or write anything like that!).  Any conventional politician – Republican or Democrat – would have mouthed all the usual platitudes about "our ally Israel" and (reluctantly but irrevocably?) committed the USA to open-ended war against Iran.  

    Somehow – despite $B "campaign donations" and whatever lewd pix Mossad has – Trump found a way to thread the needle, agreeing to attack Iran (once) if Israel agreed to a cease fire after that.

    The US attack on Iran was "Kayfabe".  I'm sure we dropped real missiles and bombs, but we warned Iran about the attack in time for them to (1) evacuate people (and maybe nuke materials) and (2) avoid attacking our planes (though it's also possible that we never actually flew B2's over Iran).

    Iran responded in kind (more Kayfabe), warning us about (details of!) their attack on our base in Qatar, which we (and mostly Qatar!?) fended off, apparently without casualties. 

    The fact that the Pentagon cooperated with Iran's military in both of these actions is remarkable, and IMO, admirable.  Of course, this is not the first case of this kind of thing: that's roughly the story of the US missile attacks on Syria in 2019 (under Trump I).

    So far, the Ceasefire is holding up well enough.  Iran will not attack Israel (directly) unless Israel attacks Iran (directly).  Israel will probably continue to assassinate people in – or allied to – Iran; Iran probably won't be able to do much about that beyond rolling up whatever Mossad cells they can find.  Iran's regional network (Hezbollah, etc) is in tatters, and it will take years for them to rebuild that, but they are patient.

    Bibi is certainly fuming at not getting everything he wanted from Trump (bombing Iran back to the Stone Age).  Trump's Secret Service people had better be very alert; and Democrats should avoid cheering if they fail.  (The Old GOP's best hope for regaining control over Trump's Mob is to be able to blame Trump's death on Democrats).

    Likewise, Democrats should just STFO about the [true!] fact that the B2 attacks only set back Iran's nuke program by a few months.  This is not the time to play "gotcha"; right now, avoiding WWIII depends on us all pretending that (1) Iran won't build nukes, so (2) Israel shouldn't nuke Iran.  Griping about the temporary nature of the damage to Iran's [purported] nuke program implies that we should permanently end it; but the only way to do that is by completely destroying Iran's industrial, technical, political and economic base… that is, to bomb back to the Stone Age, like we did with Iraq, Syria, and Libya.

    The situation is still very dicey; for now, keeping the Kayfabe Ceasefire going is by far the least dangerous course.

     

    *: "Kayfabe" is a "wrestling" term; look it up.

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