Welcome to Day 1 of the shutdown. We’ll see how it works out. It’s telling, perhaps, that Chuck Schumer went ahead with it. Last March when he supported a continuing resolution he got slammed by other Democrats. Perhaps he re-thought his strategy since. My biggest worry is that most voters won’t hear why Dems are refusing to vote for the budget. If they can get it into people’s heads that Dems are trying to help citizens keep their health care, warning them that insurance costs will go up next year because of Republicans., this is useful. But it’s really hard to get a message across to people any more. The Right has its own info-bubble, cultivated over many decades, but the Left has no equivalent.
I’m still worried about yesterday’s military meeting. First, Hegseth — Pete Hegseth spent five months as an infantry platoon leader in Iraq, which seems to be most of his combat experience. At other times he was involved with guarding prisoners in Guantanamo Bay and teaching counterinsurgency tactics. In 2014 he was promoted to Major. That’s also when he began to work for Fox News as a contributor. Then he enrolled in the reserves. For a time he served in the Washington DC National Guard. In 2021 he was excluded from being on duty at Joe Biden’s presidential inauguration. ostensibly because he’d had “Deus Vult” tattooed to a bicep. “Deus Vult” — God wills it — historically is a phrase associated with the First Crusade that has been picked up lately by Neo-Nazi and anti-Islamic groups. Hegseth resigned from the military shortly after that, apparently pissed off.
Hegseth has a lot more military experience than I have. But that doesn’t necessarily mean he has a better understanding of war. I take it he’s not a “big picture” guy. If his entire focus is winning by any means, it’s possible he needs to review von Clausewitz — “war is politics by other means.” In other words, war is an instrument of political will to achieve political objectives. And the way war is waged has to be in service to the objective.
If your political objective is just to take over some other country and subjugate its population that’s one thing. But most modern nations (Russia an obvious exception) don’t do that sort of thing any more. It’s more often the case that when first-world democracies send troops abroad, it’s to put down some faction that threatens wider regional war, And the desired end result is that the liberated population will be your friends and allies and not likely to throw support to radicals who will cause more trouble. And that’s where Rules of Engagement come in. Hegseth obviously doesn’t get that.
And, as I’ve said before, talk of “winning” and “victories” ignores the reality of military actions since the end of World War II. We don’t fight declared wars with other nations any more. Most of the time the “enemy” is a stateless faction or movement that will not surrender. Most of the time the best outcome you can hope for is that the malignant faction will be unable to continue whatever trouble they’ve been causing and will leave. And maybe they’re so decimated that they can’t regroup. It may take a while before you can say there’s anything approximating a “victory.” So no parades or celebrations.
BTW, the international laws of war most nations abide by are a legacy of Abraham Lincoln and our own Civil War. See “Lincoln’s Laws of War.”
Vietnam was a mess for a couple of reasons. The objective, we were told, was to stop South Vietnam from being taken over by North Vietnam. Waging total war on North Vietnam — like, say, by bombing it into oblivion — risked war with China, which would have been a bigger disaster. But defending — and propping up– the corrupt and unpopular Ngo Dinh Diem regime turned into a no-win situation of its own. President Kennedy figured that out and signed off on Diem’s assassination in 1963. If Diem had been replaced by a stronger and more popular leader it might have made a world of difference, but he wasn’t. And then LBJ made the worse decision of his life and sent in U.S. ground troops. But whenever people complain that in Vietnam “we weren’t trying to win,” this tells me they never thought about what we would have won. The only “winning” of the primary objective — keeping the Communist government of North Vietnam from taking over South Vietnam — really just meant an endless occupation and propping up of South Vietnam, unless you were willing to risk war with China. There was never going to be a victory.
Anyway — what you don’t want to do is wage war in such a way that you make more enemies out of the population you’re supposed to be helping. Hegseth’s approach is a recipe for making more enemies. This is a point Trump, who knows way less about war than Hegseth, misses also, and is way too stupid to understand.
I read a commentary this morning that Hegseth wants our military to be more like Russia’s — basically, dumb, violent thugs. In Ukraine the Russians have demonstrated that being violent and brutal and killing everyone in sight doesn’t assure victory, either. The Ukrainians have held them off mostly by being smarter and more innovative. I’m sorry I can’t find the link now., but I’ll post it if I find it again.
But Hegseth mostly reminds me of every bad manager I’ve ever had. He doesn’t really understand what he’s supposed to be managing, so he makes up for it by cracking down hard on the small bits he does understand — grooming, weight control — and by generally being a belligerent prick so that nobody messes with him.
And many people who understand warfare note that most of today’s military is about technology and intelligence. The combat troops may be the tip of the spear, but the rest of the spear is made of of people working more with their heads than with weapons. Hegseth does seem to struggle with the technology part, doesn’t he?
This made me laugh:
And what can you say about Trump that hasn’t been said? He once again made a total ass of himself in front of the generals. But he’s too big an ass to see himself as an ass. One of the best things I’ve read about Trump’s remarks to the brass is Trump Gave the Military’s Brass a Rehashed Speech. Until Minute 44. by Shawn McCreesh at the New York Times. See also The Commander in Chief Is Not Okay by Tom Nichols at The Atlantic.
Hegseth is a joke. If anything, his rants against women and DEI are going to make the brass think about why these things are important and why and how they actually work. Most of them are miles beyond the 1950s thinking that Hegseth represents.
I have heard the branches are facing recruitment problems, and that's part of the reason why some of the military is female and brown-skinned. Most of the top brass I would bet appreciate the value of diverse opinions, not the stuck-in-a-single ideology that Hegseth embodies.
It's tragic that these highly accomplished leaders are stuck reporting to such a dolt. I would bet most of them believe he won't last. Neither do I.
I was studying nuclear submarines at one point, and they actually have female officers. They did it because 1) other countries tried it, and found it works, and 2) recruitment problems.
The government shutdown is an interesting, can't lose situation for the Democrats, IMO. Because they are putting up a fight, if 1) they lose, and 2) TSHTF for the public in the form of skyrocketing premiums, I don't think they'll have any trouble explaining to the public who is to blame.
The Ds putting up a fight right now is almost performative, almost like taking out an insurance policy that they will absolutely use later, if the Republicans decide to commit suicide by not capitulating on the health care subsidy.
I'm also wondering how long the charade will go on, how long before the Ds break ranks and throw in the towel. Some of them can't see the bigger game, and are only concerned about the federal workers who are going to be hurting by not getting paid.
I have heard the branches are facing recruitment problems.
I believe most branches have met their targets by the simple trick of lowering targets.
Telling prospective recruits that they will be hazed, will be expected to commit war crimes, and, if female, (and male?) will be expected to tolerate sexual assaults may not be the best way to increase enlistment rates.
The last I heard, ICE was offering better pay, a much better enlistment bonus and benefits plus, most if not all the people they are kidnapping off the streets and in court houses, do not have have military drones, ballistic missiles or even the odd anti-tank missile.
Good post on the maroons running the killing machine, but on day one of the shutdown I hear who is winning the propaganda war. At my in-town job I am hearing from customers that the shutdown is because the Dems want to give illegals healthcare. The maroons win.
That's exactly what I'm afraid of. Every. single. voter who is even casually plugged in to right-wing media will be told that Dems want to give health care to illegal aliens. Only people seriously plugged into political news will hear otherwise.
MAGA leaving videos.
"I can't believe I fell for it."
Regarding the shutdown: Dems had to make a stand. Rubberstamping a CR is not gonna fly with voters horrified by what Trump is getting away with We may not win but the GOP will (rightfully) say that the Dems can't call this rape if we never protested. The people ARE protesting – Dems in Congress have to or (pardon my vulgarity) they are just spreading their legs.
I'm pleased with the hill we've planted a flag on. It doesn't mean we will win, but healthcare is something voters have cared about, do care about, and will care about a lot more when premiums double (or more). This is NEXT year, and the price hikes will get worse as the risk pool changes when healthy people drop out. My prediction is that the GOP is too stupid and too stubborn to extend Obamacare subsidies. Yes, a lot of people will believe that Dems are trying to extend healthcare for illegal aliens. They won't get their head out of you-know-where until the US Mail delivers a new insurance premium notice. They will start to ask WTF happened, and blaming it on Biden won't get much traction.
SO politically, we win, even if we fail, because Dems will be able to say, "We told you so." and the GOP will not backtrack, no matter how loud the screams are, even if much of the screaming is from battleground states. The shutdown has to be long enough and big enough so that next year as the stuff happens, Democrats in Congress can say, "Remember in October… the shutdown. We were trying to save YOUR healthcare, not healthcare for interstellar aliens. We were telling the truth – the video is there. Check it out. You've been screwed and some will die, for the tax cuts for billionaires that you were lied to about. And it's there, in the bill, in your hand "
This moment won't happen if Dems in Congress bow to the inevitability of defeat and pas the CR with no objection.
We agree. Worrying now about how the public perceives the Democrats is meaningless – the Rs are going to lie – "the Ds want to give health care to illegals". What matters is when the bills come due, and the public is outraged. They'll know then who to blame, thanks to the Ds taking a stand now, whether the public understands it or not.
"I’m still worried about yesterday’s military meeting"
Nothing really to worry about in my opinion. Those Generals all knew that diaper don and Whisky Pete were huge assholes long before that meeting. They went because they had to, I would wager that scolding from two of the biggest pussies to ever hold those positions did more to degrade the validity of any order they might issue in the future than anything. Pete did us all a favor, he exposed himself in front of the world and now the world knows what the Generals already knew. The meeting was meaningless.
I think the meeting was a message more than anything. A power move and signal that the political bosses are in fact the bosses. Additionally, the oranges successfully got the media to speculate about a purge and then cover the virtue-signaling content of the big-bosses who then got their anti-woke propaganda message out. The medium is the message. I see a successful propaganda operation to show that they can order the perfumed princes around like marionettes. The Maga base went into their goon-caves and fantasized about being manly warriors so it was a success to their base I am sure.
Hegseth called the meeting to prance around and let the brass know he was boss. Obviously. But what came out of it was more significant.
I'm not sure you grasp the situation. Trump is an asshole, but he's also a senile asshole. He's barely connected to reality. And he's a hateful, bigoted asshole who never learned the rules. He's already issued illegal orders to deploy troops and likely to issue more. Every officer there has to be thinking about what he will do when Trump orders more deployments or worse. This is a grave and dangerous situation.
I understand the situation. My post is in response to the meeting that Hegseth called, like I said in my opinion it didn't change much, if anything it just made the administration look even weaker. Anyone who is honest with themselves could see that those two are lunatic's are certainly not interested in upholding the constitution in any way, shape or form. The Generals know what Stump is and they know why he appointed Whisky Pete. They have certainly been thinking how to respond to an illegal order long before that meeting. I agree it's a grave situation but I don't think the meeting changed anything for anyone who has been paying attention to Hegseth and those Generals have certainly been paying attention. Everyday that goes by diaper don is going to act a fool I'm not sure why anyone is surprised at this point?
I will use the word Army, but Army here is not a branch but a general term for all military branches.
There are three ways to do anything.
The right way
The wrong way
And the Army way,
Every member of the audience knows that is truth. Neither speaker did.
After reading Lincoln's Laws of War, I am of the impression that the only way to peace in the Palestine vs. Israel problem is for both of them to start to agree to a code of warfare. That they will accept any terms of peace is a non-starter it seems. What is needed is an agreement to fight in a more civil manner. Both countries have obvious difficulties and differences in how to fight fairly. Neither do.
Would it work? Who knows. Better idea? Doubt it.
There is no war, there is one of the most sophisticated militaries in the world bombing a defenseless population. It's not war it's Genocide.
So was what Military "History" called the American Indian Wars. Wounded Knee and Little Big Horn both exemplified rules of warfare which allowed total extermination of the opposition, a roughly defined genocide.
As I recall I wrote shortly after Oct 7 of 2023 that Hamas had given Israel an excuse for genocide. Israel unfortunately did not exclude genocide from its rules of warfare. It still denies genocide, but most of the world sees its behavior differently.
Our War Secretary reveals much in his actions regarding Wounded Knee. Actions without regard to the humanity of Native Americans. Totally reprehensible actions IMO.
Brief video worth viewing – Rep Melanie Stansbury, History will remember those who stood up for the American people. She's wandering around a shutdown DC, about to head back to her home state of NM. Meditation about a party whose stated purpose is to maximize pain and cruelty.
How will US citizens react, in blue states, to being the victims of deliberate pain and cruelty, laid on them by the federal government? Kiss Trump's fat ass or fight back? I am not talking about violence against federal employees or buildings. That's pointless and counterproductive. Shades of Oklahoma City. Nobody rallied to support the terrorists who killed 168 people in (and around) a federal building.
IMO, they will resist, organize, protest, and engage in (I hope and pray) mass, nonviolent, civil disobedience on a scale that attracts the national media and shines a spotlight on the fascist regime of DJT. Which is not unexpected by the fascists – using the military to subdue the people who oppose Trump for what he is doing is part of the plan. That's why the almost total lack of applause rattled Trump badly. Trump can end the careers of any of them, or all of them, but he's not sure that the military will exact violent retribution against unarmed civilians.
This is just my perspective – Trump revels in being a bully and creating pain for people who do not at least pretend to admire him. But there's a political risk involved in creating large-scale domestic misery in a democracy. Trump has to either eliminate elections as he becomes the most unpopular American president in history OR Trump has to use the military to prevent any organized opposition. (Elections with only Trump's name on the ballot?)
The military may have to show up where they are sent – they may refuse to engage in provocative confrontations that are NOT violent armed insurrection, no matter what lies Trump tells.
The other component worth watching is the judicial. Grand juries often refuse to indict. The Comey trial may never see a jury seated. The evidence is so thin, a judge may toss the case. Trump has a long list of people he wants vengance against. And the judiciial system that almost (and still might) nail Trump isn't suited for what Trump wants. IMO, Trump expects he can impprison his enemies with phony evidence and tweets, which Trump exects will silence the opposition – silence members of Congress, governors in blue states, silence entertainers… That's failing, too.
Worthwhile: Phases of Successful Authoritarian Resistance
Big Picture view of where Project 2025 came from: Project 2025 Shutdown
I've been thinking about the phases of people waking up (covered in both videos, but from different angles). A key. initial phase is seeing through the lies. Trump is one big fiction himself, playing a successful businessman on TV for example. Like all modern Republican presidents, he is just the front-man to fool the rubes.
When he departs, the charismatic sales veneer will be gone, and the raw ugliness of the people behind him will be more evident. It's important to strip away the fictions early so people can clearly see what they're up against, which hastens their fall.
If I understood the speech correctly, Trump and Hegseth want soldiers they find sexually attractive, hence the emphasis on good Aryan looks and grooming. They don't want soldiers. They want warriors, so now they're cranking out propaganda posters right out of Tom of Finland. They seem to have forgotten about the slobs who actually won World War II.