It’s been a while.

It’s possible that, somewhere in the U.S., a Republican won an election yesterday. But I can’t find any examples.
The unofficial results in my voting precinct show a Democratic sweep across the ballot, but in Westchester that’s not unusual. These were mostly incumbents. But elsewhere — wow.
Mamdani, Sherrill, Spanberger, and Prop 50 all won decisively. Not even close. There were some down-ballot wins that were also significant.
VA: Democrats flipped at least 13 seats in the House of Delegates to expand their narrow majority.
GA: Democrats won two seats on the Public Service Commission, their first statewide wins in non-federal races in Georgia since 2006.
PA: Three incumbent justices on the state Supreme Court were retained, preserving a liberal majority for another two years.
ME: A ballot initiative mandating voter ID was resoundingly defeated.
CO: A ballot initiative to raise taxes on high earners to fund free school breakfasts and lunches passed overwhelmingly.
Here’s another one: Mississippi Democrats Break Republican Senate Supermajority, Flipping 3 Legislative Seats.
I think it’s safe to say that yesterday’s election results are causing a lot of re-thinking this morning. For Republicans, it must be like going to sleep in a Hilton and waking up in a Motel 6. Or maybe they were in a Motel 6 all along and just didn’t realize it. But now at least some of them are having to face facts, or at least one fact, which is that Trump is an albatross. And congressional Republicans facing re-election next year need to think long and hard about their relationship with MAGA and Donald Trump. NPR:
The president is unpopular and a drag on his party when he’s not on the ballot, but also, when he’s not on the ballot, the GOP can’t seem to turn out conservatives.
Trump’s numbers with independents haven’t been good since early on in his second term as president, as lots of them disapprove of the job he’s doing on the economy and think he’s gone too far with how he’s approached a policy of mass deportations.
In these elections, according to the exit polls, as of 1 a.m. ET — independents made up a third of the electorate in Virginia, and Democrat Abigail Spanberger won those voters by 19 points in the governor’s race. It was a similar story in New Jersey, where they made up 31% and went for Democrat Mikie Sherrill by 13 points.
It’s a real quandary for Republicans. It was true during his first term as president, too, that in these non-presidential election years, Trump brings people out to the polls in the wrong way for the GOP. If you’re a Republican, that has to be figured out. But so few want to cross Trump, and show a public break with him, that that’s unlikely to happen anytime soon for the party en masse.
In other words, the MAGA “movement” really is a one-man band, a Trump cult of personality, and not really a “movement” in any sense of the word. If you’re a Republican, hitching yourself to Trump and MAGA plus about $1.50 will get you a cup of coffee at McDonald’s. If Trump isn’t on the ballot — and he will never be on a ballot again — MAGA voters won’t reliably turn out for anyone else even if Trump tells them to.
And if you’re a Republican, what’s the downside to crossing Trump, really? Other than his saying nasty things about you? What’s he actually going to do? Order his girl Pam to indict you for something? Well, I guess that’s possible.
The NPR article goes on to say that Trump’s support among Latinos, which helped him defeat Kamala Harris last year, appears to have collapsed. If so, this could seriously screw up the Texas redistricting scheme for Republicans. I understand the Texas congressional district maps were redrawn with the assumption that Republicans in 2026 could get the same support from Latinos that Trump got in 2024. If Texas Latinos swing back to Democrats as much as they did in yesterday’s elections, Texas might not add those five Republican House seats Trump is counting on.
IMO, Trump still holds power over the GOP.
For *decades*, the GOP has depended on Culture War propaganda to trick working-class voters into voting for More Tax Cuts for the Rich. Back in 2016, Trump grabbed control of the hateful Mob which the GOP created, and those voters still follow him, *not* the Old GOP.
Bottom line: Trump still has power in GOP Primaries, and the Old GOP knows he will use it mercilessly against anybody who doesn't kiss his butt.
Hmmm… Speculation: Old Big Money GOP will try to sideline Trump between now and next year's Primaries. I hope Dems are smart enough not to help with this; the only medium-term hope for the GOP is to blame Dems for taking out Trump.
What the Money wants is the real question, isn't it? Right now Trump is being propped up by the crypto grifters and tech bros. Who are also propping up the stock markets, I understand. But there's more to the U.S. economy than crypto and AI data farms, and those other parts aren't doing so well.
Of course, it’s also the case that Wall Street threw just about everything it had at Mamdani, and couldn’t stop him.