Not Even Close

It’s been a while.

It’s possible that, somewhere in the U.S., a Republican won an election yesterday. But I can’t find any examples.

The unofficial results in my voting precinct show a Democratic sweep across the ballot, but in Westchester that’s not unusual. These were mostly incumbents. But elsewhere — wow.

Mamdani, Sherrill, Spanberger, and Prop 50 all won decisively. Not even close. There were some down-ballot wins that were also significant.

VA: Democrats flipped at least 13 seats in the House of Delegates to expand their narrow majority.

GA: Democrats won two seats on the Public Service Commission, their first statewide wins in non-federal races in Georgia since 2006.

PA: Three incumbent justices on the state Supreme Court were retained, preserving a liberal majority for another two years.

ME: A ballot initiative mandating voter ID was resoundingly defeated.

CO: A ballot initiative to raise taxes on high earners to fund free school breakfasts and lunches passed overwhelmingly.

 

Here’s another one: Mississippi Democrats Break Republican Senate Supermajority, Flipping 3 Legislative Seats.

I think it’s safe to say that yesterday’s election results are causing a lot of re-thinking this morning. For Republicans, it must be like going to sleep in a Hilton and waking up in a Motel 6. Or maybe they were in a Motel 6 all along and just didn’t realize it. But now at least some of them are having to face facts, or at least one fact, which is that Trump is an albatross. And congressional Republicans facing re-election next year need to think long and hard about their relationship with MAGA and Donald Trump.NPR:

The president is unpopular and a drag on his party when he’s not on the ballot, but also, when he’s not on the ballot, the GOP can’t seem to turn out conservatives.

Trump’s numbers with independents haven’t been good since early on in his second term as president, as lots of them disapprove of the job he’s doing on the economy and think he’s gone too far with how he’s approached a policy of mass deportations.

In these elections, according to the exit polls, as of 1 a.m. ET — independents made up a third of the electorate in Virginia, and Democrat Abigail Spanberger won those voters by 19 points in the governor’s race. It was a similar story in New Jersey, where they made up 31% and went for Democrat Mikie Sherrill by 13 points.

It’s a real quandary for Republicans. It was true during his first term as president, too, that in these non-presidential election years, Trump brings people out to the polls in the wrong way for the GOP. If you’re a Republican, that has to be figured out. But so few want to cross Trump, and show a public break with him, that that’s unlikely to happen anytime soon for the party en masse.

In other words, the MAGA “movement” really is a one-man band, a Trump cult of personality, and not really a “movement” in any sense of the word. If you’re a Republican, hitching yourself to Trump and MAGA plus about $1.50 will get you a cup of coffee at McDonald’s. If Trump isn’t on the ballot — and he will never be on a ballot again — MAGA voters won’t reliably turn out for anyone else even if Trump tells them to.

And if you’re a Republican, what’s the downside to crossing Trump, really? Other than his saying nasty things about you? What’s he actually going to do?  Order his girl Pam to indict you for something? Well, I guess that’s possible.

The NPR article goes on to say that Trump’s support among Latinos, which helped him defeat Kamala Harris last year, appears to have collapsed. If so, this could seriously screw up the Texas redistricting scheme for Republicans. I understand the Texas congressional district maps were redrawn with the assumption that Republicans in 2026 could get the same support from Latinos that Trump got in 2024. If Texas Latinos swing back to Democrats as much as they did in yesterday’s elections, Texas might not add those five Republican House seats Trump is counting on.

8 thoughts on “Not Even Close

  1. IMO, Trump still holds power over the GOP. 

    For *decades*, the GOP has depended on Culture War propaganda to trick working-class voters into voting for More Tax Cuts for the Rich.  Back in 2016, Trump grabbed control of the hateful Mob which the GOP created, and those voters still follow him, *not* the Old GOP.

    Bottom line: Trump still has power in GOP Primaries, and the Old GOP knows he will use it mercilessly against anybody who doesn't kiss his butt. 

    Hmmm… Speculation: Old Big Money GOP will try to sideline Trump between now and next year's Primaries.  I hope Dems are smart enough not to help with this; the only medium-term hope for the GOP is to blame Dems for taking out Trump.

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    • What the Money wants is the real question, isn't it? Right now Trump is being propped up by the crypto grifters and tech bros. Who are also propping up the stock markets, I understand. But there's more to the U.S. economy than crypto and AI data farms, and those other parts aren't doing so well. 

      Of course, it’s also the case that Wall Street threw just about everything it had at Mamdani, and couldn’t stop him.

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    • "What Money Wants" is a good question when examining political dynamics, especially now. The USSC hard two and a half hours of arguments on a suit against Trump tariffs, brought by big business. The USSC, and I'm talking Roberts plus other conservatives, did not seem impressed by the excuses of the Solicitor General.

      My read is that the Roberts Court will turn the Constitution into a pretzel to sustain the power of government to step on the common guy. But this case is about government stepping on very Big Business. I'm not offering a prediction but Trump may be in trouble. They might not allow Trump that weapon in his arsenal of thug weapons. 

      Something else is happening with Mamdani – something that brings 1968 to mind. "Progressives" descended on the DNC Coonvention in Chicago to demand more advances to end the Vietnam War and advance civil rights. Dixicrats still held sway with the party and the KKK was generally not Republican. (Yet) Activists knew they were not on the side of Nixon and exerted pressure on the Democratic Party to commit to social justice.  Ancient history, I know.

      Democrats ARE now solidly the party defending human rights, racial, gender equality, rights for alternative sexual lifestyles – same sex marriage, etc. But Bill Clinton wooed Wall Street and lobbyist money. The establishment Democrats are hooked on the gravy train.  Look how much AIPEC money is spread among Democrats. The Democratic Party has been more productive with super PACs than the GOP. (I'm not sure about the last few years, but I stand by the main point. Establishment Democrats like the money.) 

      Mamdani, AOC, and Bernie are not in that club. Not at all. And voters are responding to the message. I know, when I made my flight about big money, Bernie was ONLY talking income inequality. NOT corruption, a word I am guessing was deemed too incendiary. That was ten years ago. 

      Yesterday, NYC elected an immigrant who declared people who work in NYC should be able to live in the city, in decent housing, in reasonable safety. And even eat. To make it happen, M endorses rent controls and taxing the very rich to pay for making the city workable for the working class. My point: M was elected on a platform Bernie could not articulate out loud to a national audience a decade ago. Voter values are shifting, and it threatens the Democratic Party being able to  line up at the trough of big money. 

      So we're seeing Democrats in Congress working really hard to defeat Trump while trying not to be overwhelmed by the revolution to the point they have to give up corruption. In the next Primary, words to that effect are going to be spoken out loud by viable candidates for president. With Trump's atrocities, this isn't the lead story yet – if/when he's a lame duck, it will be.

      In 1968, MLK and Bobby Kennedy were assassinated. That's how serious this stuff was and is.

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      • Great analysis, well said.

        How far did they think they could push working folk, taking more and more, to the point where the usual shibboleths used to divide and distract, no longer work?  Unemployment is increasing, inflation, which was trending downward is now trending up again, millions are on the verge of being priced out of healthcare, they're taking SNAP from people unnecessarily, while responding not with solutions but more of the old happy talk.  Its becoming clearer than ever, as Sanders has been saying, this is less about party, and even race, and more about class. And money. Dems have to deal with the fact that Mamdani isn't a protest vote, he's speaking to issues that motivate people, and for good reason.  

        Democrats have the two masters conundrum: you can't serve the interests of money at the expense of your base voters, and then expect pissing on them and calling it ran to continue to work as you take more and more.

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  2. Robert S. Tucker was appointed FDNY fire commissioner by New York City Mayor Eric Adams on August 12, 2024. Six weeks before Tucker was appointed FDNY commissioner, eight employees of Tucker’s former business made political contributions to Adams on the same day. Tucker has never been a firefighter or emergency response official. He is a self-described "fire buff" who cites his time as a young boy chasing fire engines as inspiration for his service. A day after Zohran Mamdani's victory in the 2025 New York City mayoral election, Tucker submitted a resignation notice to Adams, with his last day in office being December 19, 2025, shortly before Mamdani would be sworn in. According to people close to him who spoke to Bloomberg News, Tucker felt that as a Zionist, he would be unable to serve under Mamdani, who has been critical of Israel's conduct of the Gaza war.

    (wikipedia)

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  3. Oh, the money and the names behind it all.  How quickly an AI search can illuminate those who use it to enhance the will of a minority, an elite minority, on the life of the citizen.  Doug is quite correct.  Twisting our Constitution to the peril of the citizen and the demise the democracy that empowered the citizen, seems quite the aim of many that were enriched and empowered by that democracy.  They desecrate their own success.  They attempt to replace democracy with a kleptocracy by elevating the status of the thief.  Do they not claim to have made their fortunes in "honest ways".  Does not capitalism provide enough "honest ways" for them to preserve their wealth?  Of course, with proper control by its citizens in a democracy it does just that. 

    Is their wealth preservation guaranteed?  No of course not.  For capitalism to work democracy must dominate and control kleptocratic forces which prevail in authoritarian cultures.  Simply put, no one gets to acquire wealth when the elite get to steal it from them at will.  They can do that by many forms of thievery, fraud, other con jobs, tolls, unfair business practices, counterfeiting, taxes, tariffs and the like.  

    This is all just quite elementary one would think.  Yet when the people voted a few days ago and did their jobs as citizens to control advancing kleptocracy, some cried socialism.  Ignore that cry.  It is but the cry of aggressive kleptocrat or kleptocracy supporter that does not understand how they would kill capitalism with rampant theft, forgery, unfair business practices, debt, taxes, tariffs, con jobs, counterfeiting, fraud and the like.  It is why some things just don't privatize well.  It is why the common man as citizen is empowered in a democracy, even a democracy (hanging in there by a thread) trying to properly bridal up its capitalism.  

    Kleptocrats always think all the cookies are for them.  Some even pretend not to understand how tariffs work.  Then they cry socialist or communist when too many hands are caught in the cookie jar red handed.  With Sharia law enforced they would all kind of resemble Venus de Milo and have something to really scream about.  They would really have to scream then, because clapping would be completely out of the question.  (Insert a couple of weak drum claps about here.)  

    It is good to see the bananas again.  It has been too long.

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  4. It’s possible that, somewhere in the U.S., a Republican won an election yesterday. But I can’t find any examples.

     

    The majority of voters in my town are registered Democrats, but our Republican mayor just got re-elected.  

    Local politics are weird.  One person running for our town council appeared on both the "Democratic" and "Republican" lines during the last election.

    We also have more than a few "fake Dems" who run as Democrats but are connected to and supported by the Republican party.  We have a local blogger who also fits that definition.

    All sorts of monkeyshines on the local level.

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    • At the local level, there are still some 'Good Government' Republicans left.  (Given my age and class – Salaried, Retired – I'd be a 'Good Government Republican' if I hadn't noticed decades ago that the GOP was a corrupt cabal of Zillionaires wrecking the USA and the World for short-term profits).

      Local GOP candidates often have private-sector managerial experience; those skills translate well to managing local Gov't.  The ones who haven't got sucked into the Culture War thing can often get elected – and re-elected – in /some/ Blue zones.

      Sadly, in Red Zones, there's no equivalent path for Democrats.

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