So much depends on this year’s midterm elections, so Trump’s threats to “nationalize” elections are worrisome. I don’t think he can get away with it. The Constitution gives the president no role whatsoever in how elections are run. But Congress could throw wrenches in the works. The Constitution, Article I, Section 4, Clause 1:
The Times, Places and Manner of holding Elections for Senators and Representatives, shall be prescribed in each State by the Legislature thereof; but the Congress may at any time by Law make or alter such Regulations, except as to the Places of chusing Senators.
(Note that when this was written, senators were chosen by state legislators.)
It seems to me that this clause gives Congress power to do a lot of mischief. A pile of case law on the “elections” clause has accumulated over the years, though, so some boundaries probably have been drawn already that I don’t know about. And in such a closely divided Congress I question whether there would be a majority to enact anything. See also the elections clause article at the Constitution Center.
Assuming any attempt to actually nationalize the elections fails, there is another likely result of Trump’s incessant whining and wild claims about how awful some states are at running elections. And that would be to cast doubt on the midterm results and possibly challenge them in court or overturn them by some more authoritarian means. Trump would no doubt love a re-do of January 6 on an even bigger scale. It could get nasty.
What may save us is Trump’s own massive incompetence. His administration is a failure by any measure, and he shows no inclination to change course. The percentage of the electorate that approves of everything he does is now down to about 27 percent, according to a recent Pew poll, and that 27 percent probably represents his true believer base. There’s about another 10 percent of voters who are not sure if they still like Trump or not, and the rest of the country thinks he’s a disaster. He’d have to rely mostly on ICE and other DHS enforcers. But see Federal and State Election Laws Ban Federal Forces from Polling Places at the Brennan Center.
Update: Wrestling fans in Las Vegas don’t like ICE.
In other news — I don’t even pretend to understand crypto. But those of you who are interested might like Paul Krugman’s Is This Crypto’s Fimbulwinter? In Norse mythology, Fimbulwinter is the winter that precedes Ragnarok, the end of all things.
Negotiations over DHS funding appear to be going nowhere. The Democrats came up with a list of demands that seem reasonable to me. And of course a lot of people are furious the Dems just aren’t demanding ICE be dismantled. Next year, maybe. But the Republicans dismissed these demands out of hand, and no further negotiating has taken place, as far as I can tell.
Timed well with your post, is something I found in my Facebook feed, from my state's attorney general:
My AG, Aaron Ford is a Democrat, who I'd expect to fight 45 tooth and nail. Red states – I'm not so sure how far 45 will be able to go. Scary is Steve Bannon urging ICE to monitor elections. I am certain 45 will pull every trick he can think of. It's going to take massive turnout to overcome the R's games.
I'm also expecting one devastating revelation after another this year, heading into the election. Something like this happened during GW Bush's tenure, during a critical election year, although the magnitude of those scandals will be nothing like what we'll see this year. Tell me more about the bodies buried at DJT's golf courses… that kind of thing.
The White House press secretary said she "can't guarantee" that ICE won't be around polling locations in November.
It's pretty much a given that the GOP can't pass any major changes to voting rules (ignoring the ACLU litigation) if they have to get past the Senate filibuster. My opinion is that Trump will issue executive orders and pretend they are laws. Trump may wait until the last moment to sign the order to prevent litigation that could make its way to the USSC. IMO, that will backfire because the federal courts could issue a hold on the order until it has made its way thru litigation and appeals – nullify the executive order until after the election. The question is what to do about paramilitary ICE thugs deployed in violation of the court order? An armed confrontation at polling places in urban areas in swing states suits Trump fine. It will drive down turnout, which is his objective.
If ICE violates a federal court order, the cops are individually liable for violation(s) of state election laws. Who has the names of the masked thugs? When I check into the Hilton (home away from home for ICE), I have to show my ID to get a room. The requirements vary from state to state. Couldn't those records be subpoenaed by the local authorities?
Jail is the worst place on earth for an x-cop. How many of these guys will volunteer for illegal duty that can put them in state prison for years? I'm not sure how many states are willing to play hardball back at ICE to discourage them.
I can also see governors calling out the Guard to protect polling places from ICE. That could get dicey.
One more impediment: I'm betting Speaker Johnson will refuse to swear in any Representative whom the president says won illegally, meaning all Democrats.
States and municipalities have rules for conducting elections and preventing election interference that need to be enforced, no matter who the violators are. We need to first stop pretending and acknowledge the obvious: ICE is not primarily about immigration “law enforcement” but operate as Trump’s personal paramilitary force, an all-purpose goon squad. He’s sending them to Italy to “provide security” for the US Olympic team, and the Italians are pushing back hard. Now they’re talking about sending them to polling places, and this is no different than the way racist governments in the south in the 50s and 60s used state and local police to intimidate and commit violence to prevent blacks from voting. State and local police today already provide security for polling places, there’s no need for ICE. None of this has anything to do with immigration enforcement and local and state police who normally provide security need to treat them not as law enforcement, but political actors sent to influence and intimidate and then arrest them when they violate the law with respect to access to voting. It’s late in the game but another solution is vote by mail. States should start now facilitating and encouraging the use of mail in ballots to avoid Trump’s goons. We need to dispense with the “it won’t happen here” attitude and plan for the worse.