The Fallacies of Third Way

I’ve long hated Third Way, the useless political organization dedicated to making Democrats more Republican. Here’s an old post from 2013 in which Third Way was on a tear to promote Democrats willing to say they would cut Social Security and Medicare, because (according to Third Way) that’s what real centrist Americans want from their government.

Well, they’re still at it. See Henry Burke’s reporting at The American Prospect, Centrists: Better Things Aren’t Possible. The subhead is, “Third Way’s strategy session for Democratic moderates lacked any vision other than a hatred for progressives.”

Third Way had a recent event that was attended by “elected officials, prominent pundits, data gurus, communication savants, and industry figures.” It was invitation only, so no ordinary working folks could attend. The objective was “to block a progressive from winning the party’s nomination for president in 2028.” The conceit of the event was that the people in attendance are the ones who feel the pulse of “real Americans,” while progressives are “elites” and “out of touch.” So they haven’t learned anything from 2013. Henry Burke wrote,

What is immediately apparent watching the event is a total lack of any positive vision. Rather than propose a worked-out centrist platform, or even suggest opposition to the Trump administration, the event largely defined itself in opposition to the progressive wing of the Democratic Party.

The invite-only event (which was also broadcast on YouTube for me, and approximately 15 others, to watch live) opened with Third Way’s president, Jonathan Cowan, explaining that those gathered at the event stood opposed to, among other things, “open borders,” “modern monetary theory,” “land acknowledgments, identity politics, cancel culture, and more.” The goal of the gathering, as explained by Cowan, was to rebuild the Democratic Party into one that “can win the middle anytime, anywhere.” Winning, if the speakers are to be believed, is trivially simple. The only thing standing in the way of a resurgent Democratic Party that can win across the country—both in blue states and red—is a progressive wing that had soured the public on the Democratic brand.

Opposition to Trump and even the war he had just started were barely mentioned, Burke writes. Clearly, these things weren’t important to them. You really have to read the whole thing to get how bizarre these people are. Through the entire piece Burke describes how the group uses manipulated data to “prove” that those in attendance were the ones who really understand ordinary Americans, not those wackadoo progressives. And don’t forget that Third Way is genuinely influential and is believed and respected by a lot of Democratic political operatives.

Then hop over to The New Republic and read Perry Bacon’s Guess What Moderate Democratic Voters Aren’t Anymore? Moderate. The subhead: “Two new polls suggest that moderate Democrats too want higher taxes on the rich and some measure of economic populism. Moderate isn’t what it was in 1992.” It turns out that Democratic voters who self-identify as moderate harbor political opinions that are to the left of what Third Way calls “moderate.” The moderate Dem voters Third Way wants to appeal to are becoming extinct. Perry Bacon writes,

Third Way and other centrist Democratic groups espouse positions such as opposing Medicare for All and wealth taxes. In Washington, the idea that these groups speak for moderates across the country is never questioned. But now, some evidence is emerging that suggests Democratic voters who describe themselves as moderate are in a different place. They want Democrats to push harder to increase taxes on the wealthy and corporations and don’t think the party is overly liberal on issues such as abortion and transgender rights. 

The young folks especially are not buying what the centrism-lovers want them to believe. And there’s this:

Other polls have similar findings. For example, recent Strength in Numbers/Verasight surveys show that 74 percent of moderate Democrats favor the creation of a single-payer health care system, and 67 percent of them support increased taxes on households with incomes above $400,000. Seventy percent of moderate Democrats have favorable views of Sanders, compared to only 20 percent who view him unfavorably, according to a Data for Progress survey conducted last month. 

The plain truth is that unfettered capitalism combined with a small and loose “safety net”  are not working for a lot of people, and a lot of people are noticing. They want to hear alternatives.

Do see G. Elliott Morris and Strength in Numbers.

Americans are unhappy with the way things are going in the country, and don’t feel particularly well represented by either major political party. In our new February Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll, 53% of U.S. adults say the Democratic Party is out of touch with the concerns of most Americans. An identical percentage — 53% — say the same about Republicans.

The conventional reading of numbers like these — especially after Kamala Harris’s loss in 2024 — is that when voters say a party is “out of touch,” they mean so in terms of ideology. For the Democrats, for example, “out of touch” gets mapped onto “too progressive” — with the implication that to become “in touch,” the party needs to tack to the ideological center.

Our February poll tested this assumption directly, and the assumption is simply wrong. When Americans say Democrats are “out of touch” they don’t only — or even primarily — mean “too progressive.” This type of thinking is another example of people committing the Strategist’s Fallacy instead of thinking about what is really being measured by the poll question being asked.

Morris goes on to say that the Democrats — and Republicans also — have a brand problem, but not the brand problem Third Way is trying to solve. Even self-identified “moderate” Democrats are way to the left of Third Way on policy. What worries them about the Democratic party is that the Dems are weak and ineffectual. Yeah, because they are listening to Third Way nonsense.

11 thoughts on “The Fallacies of Third Way

  1. Progressive Democrats are running against incumbent Democrats. Not only is this heresy, it's also threatening the natural order of politics. The flip side of this coin is MAGA Republicans beating establishment Republican incumbents. "Moderate" politicians for decades have protected moderate political values. Translation: they have protected the rich, corporations, and special interests who contribute big cash. (AIPAC)

    Democrats want things to go back to normal, when Republicans were less fascist and more reliable about who politicians are supposed to represent – the rich. Third Way is not concerned that Democrats will lose by running a progressive – they don't want a Democratic Congress to have to oppose the proposals from the populist Democrat in the White House. It could be FDR all over again. Watch Talrico in the TX Senate race. He could win with this message, especially if Trumpism is imploding and Hispanics turn out.  This short clip is exactly the message Third Way wants to suppress. Not oppose – SUPPRESS! 

    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/6i8yTgulzlo

    When I made my flight, Bernie would not use the word 'corruption' in his stump speech. 'Income inequality' was as far as he'd go. A few years ago, Gallup polled the most serious problems in America. 'Corruption' came in third, as I recall, and was taken off the list in later polls of that question. A year after my flight, the biggest protest in DC since Civil Rights was about big money in politics. In a week of protests at the Capitol Building. 1600 people were arrested for a nonviolent sitdown on the Capitol steps. The cops them out in buses. And you never heard about it because there was a media blackout.  The Washington Post and every damn network refused to cover big money in DC. 

    Against the best efforts of the media and both political parties and every organization except possibly the Girl Scouts, the issue is surfacing politically. If we are not to go back to a corrupt status quo after Trumpism is sidelined, we HAVE to focus on the main impediment to government for the people – and it's big money in politics.

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    • The problem is that Third Way (and its evil twin, No Labels) for many years has convinced high-level Democratic political operatives and politicians that they have to run screaming from "progressivism" for the sake of the party. It is a Holy Article of Faith that the party must be "centrist," and they can't see that it's that very "centrism" that's been strangling the party for at least a couple of decades. 

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  2. You can't make a silk purse out of a sow's ear and you can't make good politics out of a third.  You can put lipstick on a third, but some will still recognize it as a third with lipstick on it.  You can polish a third and give it a new label and fool a few.  Tariffs are a good example of a third.  All shined up and sold as terrific in this the era of the superlative as an abandoned and neglected uber superlative.  Now that it is in the punchbowl no one want's punch anymore and they can't figure out why.  

    Sure, you can try to tell them, but they are locked and loaded and prone to react hatefully to reality.  

    Do remember to take a polite pass on the punch.

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  3. This reminds me of when ObamaCare is polled, people on the left and right don't like it, but the nuance is that the lefties don't want it abolished, they want it to go further.  On another note, I blame Clinton triangulation for this. 

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    • "ObamaCare" is actually "RomneyCare"…

      I'm sure it has saved thousands (millions, maybe?) of lives, but it didn't fix the problem of Insurance companies using their excess profits to bribe Congress.

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    • "…the nuance is that the lefties don't want it abolished, they want it to go further…"

      Yes, and when a generic poll shows that voters dislike Dems these days, nobody points out that conservative poll participants hate the Dems because Dems image (as presented by R's) is liberal, while progressives poll particpants who dislike the Dems because they think the current Dems don't fight hard enough for progressive values. 

      This reality means that those generalized polls are utterly worthless… worse, they are misleading. Why are the pollsters so stupid at writing the questions? 

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  4. A gem from C U N D Gulag (RIP?) in that old post linked in OP:

    "… it’s not 'The Third Way,' it’s 'The Turd Way.'"

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  5. I read that Iran is referring to the war as "Epic Mistake" – which it most certainly is.

  6. Here's a quote I saw from Adam E. Ross:

     

    Al Gore lost in 2000 as a centrist.

    John Kerry lost in 2004 as a centrist.

    Obama won in 2008 posturing as a progressive (but then lost both houses of Congress after being exposed as a centrist).

    Hillary lost in 2016 as a centrist.

    The Dems need to begin abandoning centrism.

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