Today Trump is claiming that Iran is ready to negotiate but that he’s not ready to make a deal. Trump says the terms “aren’t good enough” yet, but he won’t say what those terms are. Indeed, if negotiations haven’t yet begun how can there be any terms? The BBC is reporting that “Iran has not asked for a ceasefire and sees no reason for talks with US, Iranian minister says.” So Trump is just blowing smoke, as usual.
See also Trump is eager to declare victory, but a battered Iran still has cards to play at WaPo. The Iranian regime must realize that Trump is only going to grow more desperate to end the war and get the Strait of Hormuz open again. I don’t see them offering to “surrender.”
Trump also suddenly realizes the U.S. has allies, or at least had them before he spent the last 15 months pissing on them. He posted on Truth Social hours ago,
“Many Countries, especially those who are affected by Iran’s attempted closure of the Hormuz Strait, will be sending War Ships, in conjunction with the United States of America, to keep the Strait open and safe,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “We have already destroyed 100% of Iran’s Military capability, but it’s easy for them to send a drone or two, drop a mine, or deliver a close range missile somewhere along, or in, this Waterway, no matter how badly defeated they are.”
He added that “hopefully” China, France, Japan, South Korea, the United Kingdom and other countries “affected by this artificial constraint, will send Ships to the area so that the Hormuz Strait will no longer be a threat by a Nation that has been totally decapitated.”
“In the meantime, the United States will be bombing the hell out of the shoreline, and continually shooting Iranian Boats and Ships out of the water,” Trump continued. “One way or the other, we will soon get the Hormuz Strait OPEN, SAFE, and FREE!”
Along with once again demonstrating he doesn’t understand percentages, Trump announced that many countries will be sending “War Ships” (hey, at least he didn’t call them “boats” this time) to the Strait of Hormuz to help clean up the mess he made. He had asked for the War Ships, but as of this writing no country has pledged support for Trump’s Folly.
Remember, just a week ago Trump imagined that the U.K. was planning to send an aircraft carrier (it wasn’t) and rudely turned down the not-offer, saying the war had already been won. Now he’s begging the U.K. for a ship. It may be dawning on him he’s in big trouble.
Over the past few days I’ve seen a number of people with respected military backgrounds — generals and scholars — on the teevee saying that no nation was ever conquered or forced into regime change by air power alone. This goes back at least to the London Blitz of 1940. Hitler thought that by bombing cities and infrastructure he could force Britain to negotiate, at least. But no.
I have to believe that at some point before Trump chose to join Israel’s war on Iran some general or another tried to explain this to Trump. Trump, of course, believes that he knows more about everything than anybody else and went ahead to do what he wanted. I already put this quote from the Wall Street Journal (as republished on MSN; no paywall) in the comments, but it’s worth reading.
The rapidly expanding war has exposed how the White House was counting on the quick collapse of the Iranian regime, how the planning was confined to a small circle of advisers and how confident Trump was that U.S. military force could contain the fallout. Some takeaways:
Before the U.S. and Israel launched the military assault against Iran on Feb. 28, Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told Trump in multiple briefings that an American attack could prompt Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that carries 20% of the world’s oil exports from the Persian Gulf to the rest of the globe.
While he acknowledged that it was a possibility, Trump decided to move ahead with the operation. He believed that Tehran would likely capitulate before it could close the strait or cause significant economic damage. And if it came to it, he told his team, the U.S. military would be able to handle it. On Friday evening, Trump said the U.S. bombed military targets on Iran’s Kharg Island, a critical hub for the country’s crude oil exports, to pressure Tehran to reopen the strait.
Here’s a bit more:
Trump has said repeatedly that the war might end soon and he has already claimed victory. He is facing pressure from outside advisers to end the conflict quickly, as well as concerns from fellow Republicans facing a tough midterm election climate. Gulf allies have also expressed their frustration with Washington as Iran has attacked oil refineries, hotels and other civilian targets, piercing the narrative that Gulf nations are safe places for business within a turbulent region.
But Trump is “dug in,” a senior White House official said, adding the timeline being considered remains four to six weeks. The war entered its third week on Saturday. On Friday, Trump said he would end the war when he feels it “in my bones.”
In short, we’re bleeped. Let’s just accept there is no plan. There never was a plan; there will not be a plan. We are all at the mercy of just about everything in the time-space continuum right now.
In other news, plans are being floated to replace the columns on the White House with fancier ones. I’m serious.
In response to “Many Countries, especially those who are affected by Iran’s attempted closure of the Hormuz Strait, will be sending War Ships, in conjunction with the United States of America, to keep the Strait open and safe,”
Heather Cox Richardson wrote:
Other countries know that the foreign policy of the United States under the current administration is: Let No Good Deed Go Unpunished. They will respond accordingly.
His record of unpaid debt is legendary.
So what happens when there's no plan? Vietnam comes to mind. You keep trying stupid and counterproductive things like Agent Orange, which was a carcinogenic defoliant. We used it to kill jungle vegetation so we could "see" the Vietcong cross and so we'd have a clear track for our patrols. What we found out is that the Vietcong could more easily ambush our patrols in the open from the jungle. And our guys were getting lethal doses of cancer. We also indulged in genocide, carpet bombing civilian centers.
I'm not opening a new debate about ancient history. There are lessons graven in stone from Iraq and Afghanistan. The adversary who will not be defeated CAN not be defeated. Guess who proved it first? Thirteen colonies across the sea from Great Britain. We had help from France to keep it going, but the heavy-handed tactics of occupying Boston and creating hardship among civilians solidified resistance.
I do not think Iran is close to surrender. Even the forces against the theocracy are not interested in bending the knee for American Imperialism. In their psyche, I suspect most Iranians could identify with the hero of Dune, by Frank Herbert. "The power to destroy a thing is the absolute control over it." If Iran can control the Straight of Hormuz to the degree that they can threaten tankers going through it, they have control of the region, even if their domestic infrastructure is shattered.
Yes, and Iranians are also not likely to bend the knee to Israel… after all this is a joint operation
There is a Plan, but it's Bibi's plan: get the USA to [help] wreck Iran before the USA (1) falls apart or (2) gets mad and stops letting AIPAC manipulate US Foreign Policy. I believe that Bibi's "plan" is actually *causing* both 1 & 2 to happen (sooner rather than later).
There is no decent plan for forcing open the Strait of Hormuz because, geography and modern weapons.
Short version: cheap Iranian drones and missiles could sink any ships we send in to escort the tankers out. Besides, we *don't have ships designed for escort duty*! (per Sal Mercogliano, at What's Going on with Shipping).
To eliminate the threat of Iranian land-based weapons, we would have to invade, conquer, and hold a large mountainous area (imagine Afghanistan, but with modern weapons). Those 2,000 Marines might (?) be able to take Kharg Island, but capturing 1,000+ miles of Iranian coastline would require a full-scale invasion, and even that might not succeed (cheap Iranian drones and missiles could sink a terrible portion of whatever ships we use to land soldiers).
So, yeah, any "plan" Trump imagines is BS.
Gotta apologize for putting words in Sal's mouth. In this new YT video, he is clearly advocating for US Navy to send a bunch of (US) Destroyers through the Strait of Hormuz to show shippers that it's safe:
Strait of Hormuz Update 15 March 2026 | Update on Other Maritime Stories | US Destroyers Sail Again
(the part about sending Destroyers starts around 25:00; elsewhere he brushes off the rumors of mines and disses Trump's Energy Secretary for BS'ing and grouses that the US should have already done something about the closure)
In this case, I think Sal's wrong, but maybe he's right; maybe our Destroyers really can defend themselves from whatever Iran might throw at them. OTOH, maybe he hasn't really kept up to date on the capability – and sheer volume – of drones and cheap missiles in Iran's arsenal. Sal ridicules Trump for claiming that we have knocked out "100%" of Iran's weapons, but maybe he thinks that we really have eliminated 99%, and that USN ships could handle what's left.
Sal's a stand-up guy, but IMO he can be a bit naive about rooting for Our Side when WE started the fight by bombing yet another country.
I'm confused:who the hell is SAL?
Sal Mercogliano, who runs the "What's Going on with Shipping" Youtube channel, my go-to source for all things related to shipping, like the closure of the Straits of Hormuz. I ref'd him in my first Comment, then realized that I had misrepresented his position, and posted the correction.
His style is so informal that I feel like I know him as a person, hence "Sal", not "Mr. Mercogliano". Also, "Sal" is a lot easier to spell…
maybe our Destroyers really can defend themselves from whatever Iran might throw at them.
No. I was listening to a discussion on this last night and it looks basically impossible.
Think of it, the ships are sailing in a line in a strait where they cannot dodge; I am not sure they can even turn around without doing a 3–point turn.
If they leave the shipping channel, there is a good chance they run aground. IIRC the channel is 3.5–4.0km wide.
Each destroyer has ~50-90(?) anti-missile missiles and a bit of close-in defence weaponry. And maybe a few shotguns (I'm not joking they may help)>
The Iranians have pre-registered every centimetre of the strait for artillery/missile/drone attacks. They can sit back in caves on the cliffs or back maybe as far as 25–30 km from the strait and fire missiles and drones at every ship. Maybe toss in a bit of conventional artillery? Drones are cheap and plentiful.
They have underwater drones and fast rocket–carrying speedboats if needed.
All this assumes the Iranians don't mine the strait.
So just swarm every ship with 300–400 drones each with a 10kg explosive charge. Toss in half a dozen anti-ship missiles. Voilà, crippled or wreaked ship.
Destroyers are built and armed for ocean combat, they are not intended as the equivalent of a SWAT team doing an assault on a gang hangout.
Yeah, that's what I'd expect, too; that's why I was surprised to see Sal Mercogliano blithely advocating for the USN to just force open the straits with a few Destroyers.
Maybe he knows more about USN ship-defense tech than we do. OTOH, it's just as likely that he knows more about Shipping than about modern weaponry (how drones & cheap missiles have tilted the balance of offense/defense).
Trump certainly would have jumped at any suggestion that the Navy could open the Straits; so, presumably the USN Brass knows that the risk is too great, and just said No.
I keep getting the feeling that a lot of people, perhaps Sal as well, are thinking about operating in the open sea or even within confined but still fairly open waters.
I tend to think of this more as the rough equivalent of a column of cars driving down a sunken highway with young headbangers standing above with shotguns.
Jamelle Bouie penned quite the opinion piece for the NYT, quote below. It is down from the web edition but still available in the archive. A commenter identified as Rutherford suggested that the operation is misnamed…its proper name is Operation Epstein Distraction.
Gut and now bone feelings.
I can't read the article through the paywall, but the Financial Times is running this headline — Donald Trump warns Nato faces ‘very bad future’ if allies fail to help US in Iran. I don't think the NATO charter covers this situation.
If I were a politician in any NATO country, considering the idea of sending my troops and military assets in harms way under the command of US President Trump when the decision to launch strikes was made unilaterally and against the advice of the UK, France, and Germany, it would not be hard to come to a firm "no."
And I'm relying on my memory that the leaders of those three nations during the buildup contacted the WH to tell Trump not to do it.
Lardass also wants China, who gets 90% of their oil from Iran to join the US alliance. Iran can let those tankers through. We are not at war with China or Iran, so on what basis can we sink a supertanker? Or is China suddenly an ally after being kicked around by the Trump WH for 18 months?
This would work well as a Monty Python skit if there were a punch line.
"Trump says the terms “aren’t good enough”"
I reckon old diaper don just isn't feeling it in his bone spurs!
As for replacing the white house columns with corinthian columns because they are the most premier style: Buck off, brainless wonder. The White house was designed and built (along with the original capitol building) in the 1790's and there was, and remains a huge difference between those two buildings: The white house was built to be the president's RESIDENCE, while the capitol building was built to be the seat of government. The last thing the founders and most Americans of the second half of the 1700's wanted in the way of a presidential residence was a freaking palace. We just overthrew mad king george. The presidential residence is intended to represent modesty, while the seat of government (representatives and senators selected by the PEOPLE) is supposed to represent the glorious power of the people.
This one really ticks me off, because I have a fond place in my heart for symbolism.
"We've won the war and don't need any help!"
"Why won't our allies help us out?"
"This war is practically won."
"We're just getting started."
"This isn't a regime change operation, but the regime has changed."
"Iran is correct on this – they’re legitimate targets. Iran was attacked. They have an absolute right to defend themselves from the belligerents- US and Israel.
Not that the US or Israel follow any of the laws of war or Geneva Conventions since the Gaza genocide anyway, but Iran must delight in throwing it in our faces.
Hey, are we triumphant yet? Is Iran completely destroyed and a failed state? That was the objective. Have we met it?" – Kay W.
https://heymistermix.com/p/man-who-drove-car-into-ditch-asks-friends-who-told-him-not-to-do-it-to-join-him-there
I check the news several times each day for improvement. Not seeing much that gives me hope. The maines are more than a week away – when they are deployed as a screen to defend the Staight of Hormuz (if that is their mission) they become targets for Iran. Trump will post the body count as proof we have to stay and win. How many times have I heard gutless politicians use the sacrifice of GIs (on the altar of their ambition) as the excuse for a rally round the flag moment?
We are stuck. Trump can't win this war, and he won't admit it. He will lurch from one fix to the next, fixing nothing.
Yep, in other words, lurch into to another forever war.
Looks like it's going to be USA verses Venezuela in the world baseball championship game tomorrow. Should be a great game. I wonder what diaper don will pull to fuck it up somehow?
"…why won't our allies help us out?"
Because diaper dawn told them to buck off. Tends to not make normal people want to help you out.