(Update: The New York Times is reporting that Trump and Iran have agreed to a two-week cease fire. So no nuclear Armageddon tonight.)
Stealing a subhead from David Kurtz — Go Big or Go TACO?
Of course, the part about regime change and “less radicalized minds” isn’t true, according to all the media, but does Trump believe it’s true? What is he being told?
The threat is supposed to be carried out beginning at 8 pm Eastern Time. And it has been well and truly said that Trump runs his administration as if it were a reality TV show. Tune in tonight to see what happens next. I feel so bad for Iranians who are probably wondering where to put their children to keep them safe right now. This is ghastly. Paul Waldman:
If you are reading this after Tuesday, April 7, you know how it turned out, at least in the short run. But until then, this is the situation: Because he loves attaching a deadline to a threat in order to create a ticking clock that heightens dramatic tension and encourages viewers to tune in to the next episode, Trump has told Iran that if it doesn’t open the Strait of Hormuz by 8 pm eastern time, then he will destroy all the country’s power plants and bridges. But that alone wouldn’t obliterate Iranian “civilization” for all time. For that, you’d need nuclear bombs.
And that’s about the fourth mention of nuclear bombs I’ve seen today. With any other POTUS, that’s not something we’d have to worry about. With him, it is.
Despite all we’ve been through, I doubt Trump would actually nuke Iran and kill all its 92 million citizens. But I’m not 100% sure he wouldn’t, and neither is anyone else. This is one of the most horrifying things: When Trump is told that his current plans would make him a war criminal, that may make him even more likely to raise the stakes higher, bring more destruction, kill more people, and cause more global instability.
Part of him wants to be praised as a peacemaker, to have everyone say he stopped fifty-seven wars and finally get that Nobel Peace Prize. But another part of him yearns to be the destroyer of worlds.
Waldman goes on to the relationship among Trump, Stephen Miller, and Pete Hegseth. IMO these three apparent sociopaths are the current Axis of Evil. They recognize nothing but force and dominance and no doubt get off on carnage, especially against nonwhite people. And they have no appreciation of history and honor. Waldman’s point is that explaining war crimes to Trump made him more likely to do those things. He wants to believe he has absolute power now.
See also Paul Krugman, Our Darkest Hour (the civilization we destroy may be our own).
Recently Trump admitted something I’ve suspected all along, that Trump got his “understanding” of NATO from Putin. It’s at the beginning of this bit —
See also Steve Benen at Maddowblog. Trump basically doesn’t understand what NATO even does, such as why the NATO charter doesn’t require anybody to bail him out of a war he started in Iran. Trump can’t lawfully withdraw the U.S. from NATO without congressional approval, and I assume this has been explained to him. But I take it NATO is preparing for a post-U.S. future anyway.
At the New York Times, Jonathan Swan and Maggie Haberman have a long feature on how Trump decided to take the U.S. to war in Iran. I haven’t read it yet, but it looks interesting.
The NY Times article is very revealing. This is Bee-Bee's war, with US participation in the war needed by Bee-Bee; coupled with a vanity project that strokes the orangutan's ego.
We are living in a disastrous time in world history.
POTUS, clutching at straws to provide a rationale for this fiasco has centered his argument on "we could not allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon". I have two questions:
1) As of the situation today, are we better positioned to accomplish that goal than we were before the launching of the "operation"?
2) If a country led by a whack-job supreme leader having a nuclear weapon is so threatening to us, why didn't the 2016-2020 administration bomb North Korea back to the stone age? If the answer is "because" N.K. has nukes, is our leadership admitting that we cannot prevent N.K. missiles from nuking us? If that's true, what if N.K. decides to attack the US as a response to the US bombing Iran back to the stone age?
As of the situation today, are we better positioned to accomplish that goal than we were before the launching of the "operation"?
Of course you are.
You have managed to assassinate the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei who was firmly opposed to Iran having a nuclear bomb, and murdered his daughter, his sister-in-law and one of his grandchildren.
His son, Mojtaba Khamenei, is now Supreme Leader. You have managed to assassinate his father, his sister, his wife and one of his children. He is a IRGC veteran of the Iran–Iraq War which seems to give him a lot of credibility with the IRGC and speculation is that he is more of a hardliner than his father.
I believe the US is reportet to have evacuated 10 of 13 bases in GCC countries, major US financial institutions have closed offices in Dubai and, I believe, are evacuating Ex–Pat staff.
My information on the situation in Iraq is a bit out of date but it appears the existing three US military bases there are under siege as is the Green Zone, the huge US Embassy in Baghdad.
The world economy is in free fall, and the world is blaming the USA for this. On the other, report Iran is selling more oil at higher prices than before the start of the war and possibly quietly negotiating the lifting of some sanctions with any number of countries who are negotiating safe passage of their ships out of the Persian Gulf and through the Strait of Hormuz. It seems to be collecting a hefty toll on some or all of these ships. Russia is reaping windfall profits from its oil and natural gas exports.
In the last several days the USA has lost a number of aircraft either shot down or destroyed on the ground. Many of these were lost in what looks like an attempted raid to capture enriched uranium around Isfahan that has turned into a débâcle which the USA is describing as a successful rescue of a downed airman. I am not sure of the accuracy of this report, the source is generally very reliable, however anyone can be mistaken but the Iranians are reporting the capture of a USAF Major during this action.
Many countries in the world have been denying overflight rights for US military planes. Among them are Switzerland, Spain, Austria Italy and France. Spain, Italy and France are all NATO countries. Given President Trump’s rants and insults to other NATO members, these countries and probably are not happy. Threatening to invade Denmark and annex Canada is unlikely to have strengthened the alliance.
Iran has been taking terrible damage including having hospitals and schools bombed but, if anything, support for the government in defying the USA and Israel seems as strong or stronger than ever. So far it seems its munitions supplies are in good shape and it seems to be deploying new and better anti–aircraft weapons. One must remember Iran fought an eight year war long with Iraq and lost at least half a million people. It does no intimidate easily.
There are many other things to consider but yes the USA is doing quite well by Donnie’s somewhat idiosyncratic standards.
In brief, we're screwed.
Well, let's just say things have looked better.
I forgot to mention that the attacks on US bases & Green Zone is by Iraqi PMU's. The Iraqi Gov't has given them the green light to attack them and seems to have authorized the PMUs to invade Kuwait and maybe Syria or Jordan if need be.. I cannot remember which.
Essentially Iraq is at war with the USA and Israel but no one on either side wants to mention this embarrassing little fact.
OOPS
I forgot to include the link to thesorey about the US major.
https://johnhelmer.net/what-the-captured-ryder-documents-reveal-of-the-us-israeli-plan-to-destroy-iran-and-what-comes-next/
I'm not familiar with that source, and frankly I don't trust it.
I tend to trust the source but as I said anyone can be fooled by a really good con. I am dubious about the story too but I am not going to dismiss it. The mad mêlée, described as the extraction of a downed flyer makes me wonder if it is true.
The source is an Australian journalist who at one point worked for the White House(!) a very long time ago and has been, or was, based in Moscow for probably 30 years and married to a Russian citizen–now deceased–I am not sure exactly where he lives now.
I tend to take some of his political comments with a grain of salt. He hates Lavrov for what seems to be personal reasons. He, also, hates Chrystia Freeland for personal/professional reasons but I hear he has a lot of company there.
However, his factual reporting seems very accurate and he is meticulous about small details: Note his comments about the date on the ID.
He has said that his West Asia contacts are not that strong anymore as he has not been working there for years but I get the impression that he still monitors things mainly because things there affect his economic reporting about Russian issues.
Thx for the link to the NYT article chronicling the march to war. Bibi showed the way, Trump followed gladly; damn them both forever.
If Israel uses nukes on Iran, they become a pariah nation for all time in my eyes. (Crucial note: I do not equate "Israel" with "all Jews).
If we use nukes on Iran, we become a pariah nation.
It's time for Mark Twain's War Prayer:
warprayer-MARK-TWAIN
Trump trolled us so hard. He is the dealmaker.
Armageddon postponed again. Entropy will eventually prevail, as it is the law. This was scheduled for 1/1/2000 wasn't it? What are the people born under the sign of the death wish to do? How much patience are they supposed to have? I was thinking just plain stupid and senile had a chance this time. Well not quite yet it seems. As Yoda might say, worry not, the stupid and the senile is very strong in him. Count him out not yet.
Nichole Wallace is a dream come true. I catch her often on audio only subscription with incredibly obnoxious and repetitive commercials. The service double dips, as their subscription fees, though high, must not be high enough to satisfy their insatiable greed. Oh well. I digress at times. Nichole nailed the Putin-think problem with some prime help. They are best people you know. They don't work cheaply.
They even do video for those with other subscriptions. When U-tube picks them up I get to put faces with the voices. Good clip.
One nitpick: I don't believe it would be necessary to use nuclear weapons to effectively end Iranian "civilization" because of their water situation. If you destroyed their ability to make drinking water, I don't know how much damage would be done, but I assume it could be in the tens of millions of lives lost.
If Iran can only make enough drinking water for 60 million people, well, I don't think the technology exists to move 30 million people to water quickly enough to let them drink, or, to move 30 million people's water needs to them, quickly enough to let them drink, and if the tech exists it isn't standing by, in Iran, just in case. So right there, we're looking at tens of millions of deaths, and probably more than "just" the 30 million they can't provide water for.
More than anything else, this is what had me worried about Trump's actions. It seemed to me like he could have touched off a humanitarian disaster, when he thought he was just owning-the-libs, good and hard. We can save thousands of people from a water shortage, but I don't think we can save millions, especially if we lost desalination capacity in the ME!
I am greatly relieved that yesterday was TACO Tuesday!
So far, it appears that Trump has (unknowingly?) agreed to huge concessions to Iran; which frankly, I consider totally appropriate. We (and Israel) attacked them, assassinated their Ayatollah and most of his family, killed thousands of civilians (including 175 kids at a girls' school on day 1), and had started to attack their basic infrastructure.
We were the bad guys here. All excuses – including blocking them from acquiring nukes – are BS.
The question now is whether the ceasefire will hold and eventually morph into a more permanent peace. I suspect that Trump has soured on the war; his lies about "winning" ring hollower each day, and the Pentagon must have convinced him that we can't reopen the Strait by force. But of course, Trump might just decide to restart the bombing in two weeks (or two days, who knows).
I do expect Israel to do whatever it can to undermine the deal, and they are quite capable of some really nasty tricks (false flags, assassinations, etc). As much as I despise JD Vance, I'm now hoping his Secret Service detail is top notch (he appears to be the strongest voice inside the White House against this damn war, so he's an obvious target for Mossad).
One obvious step will be leaks of *some* of Epstein's Trump Tapes (they'd have to keep the best ones under wraps for further extortion). Trump can (honestly!) tell Israel that he tried it their way (per that NYT article), and it didn't work; Israel will have to settle for something less than "obliteration" of Iran (perhaps little more than the release of Ghislaine Maxwell).
One positive factor is that pretty much everybody else in the world wants this over – continued constriction of the Strait would ensure global recession (and possibly widespread famine caused by delay of fertilizers to 3rd world countries).
We are not out of the woods yet; not even close. But IMO, this Ceasefire is infinitely better than the carnage I was expecting less that 24 hours ago.