If I could draw, I would draw a cartoon showing Trump as a Chinese peasant kowtowing to Emperor Xi Jinping. The usually imperious Trump appears to be playing the role of eager supplicant in China. And I can’t believe I’m agreeing with Bill Kristol:
In the Great Hall, Xi greeted the American president politely but professionally, calling on the United States and China to be “partners, not adversaries.”
Trump responded much more personally. “I have such respect for China, the job you’ve done. You’re a great leader. I say it to everybody, you’re a great leader. Sometimes people don’t like me saying it, but I say it anyway because it’s true.” Trump also liked the ranks of Chinese children the state assembled to greet him with forced enthusiasm, telling Xi: “I was particularly impressed by those children. They were happy, they were beautiful. Those children were amazing.”
It’s a kowtow, twenty-first century style.
Xi has warmed Trump about Taiwan being “handled poorly” could lead to a dangerous situation. WaPo:
“The Taiwan question is the most important issue in China-U. S. relations,” Xi said, according to the Foreign Ministry readout. “If it is handled properly, the bilateral relationship will enjoy overall stability. Otherwise, the two countries will have clashes and even conflicts, putting the entire relationship in great jeopardy.”
In the meeting, Trump did not respond to Xi’s comments about Taiwan and moved on to the next topic without acknowledging them at all, according to a White House official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive closed-door meeting.
A senior administration official said, however, that during the course of the meeting, both sides reiterated their long-stated positions on the issue.
IMO that last bit is a lie. I’m betting Trump and whoever was with him in the meeting didn’t say a word. Compare/contrast to what happened four years ago, when Xi met with President Joe Biden. Phillips P. OBrien:
Signs of decline can be dramatic or they can be small. Dramatic ones include military and strategic failure that make it obvious that a state is no longer the force that it was. Smaller signs can be seen in the use of diplomatic language or tenor of conversation. We are witnessing the latter in a clear and unmistakable way.
To understand this, lets go back to 2022, the last time the American president, Joe Biden in this case, met the Chinese president, the same Xi Jinping who rules today. During that meeting, Xi pressed Biden on the issue of American support for Taiwan. In this instance, Biden pressed back strongly, publicly telling Xi that the use of Chinese military force against Taiwan would be a major mistake. Biden was very direct.
“I absolutely believe there need not be a new Cold War. I have met many times with Xi Jinping and we were candid and clear with one another across the board. I do not think there is any imminent attempt on the part of China to invade Taiwan,” he said.
“I made it clear we want to see cross-strait issues to be peacefully resolved and so it never has to come to that. And I’m convinced that he understood what I was saying, I understood what he was saying.”
So Xi pressed Trump the same way he pressed Biden four years ago.
What was Donald Trump’s response? That would be nothing. When asked publicly by the press about Taiwan, Trump looked away and refused to say anything at all, even though he had just answered another question.
Sam Riley at The Independent writes that Trump seems fine with being humiliated.
Already puffed up by hordes of flower and flag-waving children, honour guards and meetings in China’s Great Hall of the People, Trump is unlikely to be offended by the offensive because he doesn’t care about Taiwan, is irritated by past commitments to protect the island, and sees the entire region as part of China’s legitimate sphere of influence.
If China doesn’t invade Taiwan before Trump leaves office, I’m going to be surprised. And I’m betting Xi will do it sooner rather than later, while so much of our military is tied up in the vicinity of Iran.
Paul Krugman has a couple of Trump-in-China posts up now. One is A Failing, Flailing President Supplicates Xi. It begins:
One of Donald Trump’s signature claims is that Joe Biden made America a “laughing stock”, and that he has made us great again and respected around the world.
Yet this is the opposite of the truth. As a result of Trump’s petulant, self-destructive policies, much of the world now holds him and America as a whole in contempt. As the New York Times reported just before Trump’s visit to Beijing, the Chinese now talk routinely about “American decline,” and describe Trump as “an accelerator of American decay.”
China has a lot of its own problems, Krugman writes, but in many ways it is rising, both economically and in geopolitical influence. Under Trump the U.S. is doing just the opposite. In many ways “Trump has vastly weakened America’s geopolitical position — in effect, throwing away whatever cards we had.” And you want to read that part; some of it is eye-popping. But for now I’m skipping to the end.
Thus the formerly strutting Trump is forced to fly to Beijing as a supplicant, hoping that Xi Jinping will offer concessions that will extricate him from the domestic and international trainwreck he has wrought. Yes, Xi might offer some soybean purchases for failing American farmers and some deals to the executives traveling with Trump as a face-saving sop. But rest assured that the Chinese will use Trump’s debilitated status to their ultimate advantage, pressing for concessions on Taiwan while letting Trump bleed away what’s left of U.S. credibility on a failed war.
What a sad and pathetic spectacle.
Krugman also did a video — transcript available — addressing the question of why Elon Musk and a bunch of other CEOs when on this trip. In brief, they aren’t there to do anything good for us. Speaking of Trump, Krugman says, “He might as well have been walking around Beijing with a sign that says — in block capitals, of course, this is Trump — BRIBE ME.”
Maybe the biggest humiliation would be if nobody bothered to bribe him.
I'm not sure what the China trip is about. I may be that for China, the summit is all about the US ceding Taiwan to mainland China. Trump has no sense of geopolitical continuity. Which means Trump thinks he can change his mind about the US position on Taiwan more often than he changes his Depends.
The flip side of that shallow sense of loyalty is how the war that Israel started with Iran has become an embarrassment to Trump. "See it through to the bitter end" seems unlikely. Once Trump extricates himself from Iran, he may stop taking calls from Bibi. IMO, Trump was talked into a war under totally distorted premises – quick, easy, 'You'll be a hero.' In no time, Trump was being told he 'had' to invade with US troops, which be backed away from.
The next elections in Israel are scheduled for 27 October this year. A lot of Democrats in Congress ae backing away from the AIPAC money. If Trump decides not to join in on ethnic cleansing in and around Israel, it may split MAGA. But as I speculated, Bibi fed Trump a line of BD to suck the US into the dirtiest end of a prolonged ground war in Iran. Trump is an idiot who hates being treated like one.
I think the economy is slowing a lot more than is being reported. Major retail corporations are slashing hours. It's not just gas prices and inflation. People are buying less. We will see it soon in quarterly reports and missed earnings. Then Wall Street will react.
Humiliated without knowing the first thing about how to be humble. That is why we "get to" feel smaller and less powerful while he spouts superlatives.
It was nice of China to host a gaggle of boasters and baboons. They did well in surviving this onslaught of veritable Amway hucksters. None of them had any idea that their elitism was an anathema in a country where the good of the whole group is regarded over individual good in a quite different balance than we have. More so today with the rise of adherents of the gospel of greed.
The buy my and bribe me motive could have been a lot less obvious.
I suspect that the Trump-Xi meetings are more about Iran than Taiwan.
I disagree with Maha – IMO, Xi/China wants regain Taiwan without the death, destruction, and shame that an invasion would entail. They will continue to build a military which *could* take Taiwan by force, but they have the patience – and economic/industrial might – to slowly "entice" Taiwan to reunite with China.
OTOH, Iran is a far more pressing problem for China, and not just because they import a lot of oil & gas from Iran. Continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz is likely to destabilize a *lot* of countries, especially in South Asia, and China *really* doesn't want that.
We see China as a Communist country; this is accurate, but it obscures the fact that China is has also reverted to its historical norm: a Confucian Bureaucracy. It is deeply "conservative", in the most technical sense: China values order over freedom, in both Domestic and Foreign policy. China doesn't much care what foreigners do to each other as long as (1) it doesn't spill over into China and (2) doesn't disrupt trade.
The Iran war obviously "disrupts trade". China is rich enough to get oil, gas, and fertilizer from other sources, but many of its neighbors don't. Without gas, they can't cook food; without oil, they can't transport it; and worst of all, without fertilizer, they won't be able to grow it.
China knows – from its own long history – that Famine leads directly to Chaos, and Chaos is bad for Business.
Sadly, all those Techbros that tagged along with Trump believe exactly the opposite.
They will continue to build a military which *could* take Taiwan by force, but they have the patience – and economic/industrial might – to slowly “entice” Taiwan to reunite with China.
Taiwan would have to be forced, one way or another. Remaining free from the People’s Republic is central to Taiwan’s entire existence. While it might not take an invasion, it would take an imminent threat of invasion with no help from Taiwan’s allies in sight. Note also that Taiwan builds over 90 percent of the world’s most advanced microchips. If China took over control of that, it would potentially be a bigger deal that Iran controlling the Strait of Hormuz. I’m sure other places can make advanced microchips, but for some reason they don’t, or not as efficiently. Also Taiwan right now has close to the strongest and fastest growing economy in the world, and the Taiwanese enjoy a high standard of living, including the world’s best health care system according to many sources. China can’t compete with that, economically. It’s a whole lot bigger, but per capita it’s a whole lot poorer.
The obvious model is the way China reabsorbed Hong Kong. No invasion, but lotsa economic and diplomatic pressure. Concessions to Democracy, slowly reeled back after the takeover.
I'm not saying it's a Good Thing; just saying it's Gonna Happen, and we'd better deal with it – without starting WWIII*.
Taiwan has been doing great economically, but "relies on imports for almost 98% of its energy" (Wiki, "Energy in Taiwan"), so the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz is a big problem. Perhaps worse, they are hugely dependent on imports for the raw materials for making chips – and China has nearly cornered the market for those Rare Earth metals.
The more general situation is that China has a more accurate (and powerful) view of Economics – based on flows of materials, labor, ideas, etc, rather than Money. Taiwan looks powerful in Western terms (Big GDP!), but is deeply vulnerable to trade disruptions – and the US is losing control of global trade.
Glad – but not surprised – to hear that Taiwan has a truly world-class Health Care System. I'd prefer we – USA – take a $T from our bloated military budget and join the ranks of civilized nations – by building a decent Health Care System.
* – if Trump doesn't find a way to weasel out of Bibi's war with Iran, that will eventually be viewed as the start of WWIII.
Hong Kong was different. Hong Kong had been a British Crown Colony for more than 150 years. Much of the territory of the colony had been acquired through a lease that expired in 1997. At that point Britain had little choice but to transfer sovereignty back to China, which it did. Hong Kong wasn’t just “reabsorbed” back into China; it was formally given back to China. There were treaties and ceremonies and everything.
Taiwan is nobody’s colony and has considered itself independent since 1949. Regarding Taiwan’s energy dependence, my impression is that the Taiwanese would rather starve to death in the dark than give themselves back to China. Note that Taiwan’s entire economy is heavily dependent on foreign trade. It sells microchips and other things to the world and buys what it needs back. A lot of the world is heavily dependent on Taiwanese microchips. A move by China on Taiwan — say, a blockade to isolate it from the world, which would be an act of war — would be considered with great alarm by a whole lot of the nations of the world, if not by Donald Trump. But it would still take an act of war on China’s part. Taiwan is not about to give itself back to China. The entire population would swim to Japan first.
I suspect that the Taiwanese have been quietly talking to the Ukrainians about how to build military drones, especially naval drones.
The People's Liberation Army-Navy (holy Ascended Madoka, what a stupid name!) is a very impressive force on paper, but as far as I know, it has never been tested in battle. I suspect Xi might get the same sort of ugly surprise that Putin has gotten, so I suspect Xi will follow Elkern's approach.
OTOH, I am assuming that Xi is smart. If he be less smart than I believe, he might indeed try the blatant approach, as Putin did.
I have yet to see evidence that there is any way Taiwan would allow itself to be “reabsorbed” into China, short of an act of war. I’ve been following the dynamics between Taiwan and China for some time, and if you knew the Taiwanese at all you’d know how much they really don’t want to be taken over by China. It’s unthinkable to them.
With gas prices up and food prices at record high levels, money itself is at high levels. The British 10-year note yielding almost 5.2% and the US 10 closing in on 4.6%. Both borrowing your way through it or drinking your way through it are ill advised.
Lavish ballroom? Triumphant grandiose arch? On borrowed money? On the back of the great majority of citizens? Just simply no.
I read somewhere that you should never hold a meeting to hold a meeting. It looks like the 'summit' was just that kind of failure. It's not that our agenda was rejected – as far as I can tell from news reports, we had no plan. Just a date – and we showed up. Xi did not capitalize on the lack of an agenda to put forward his grand plan. He showed up, was a gracious host, and didn't seem to have helped or hindered us.
I wonder if Xi is following the advice of Napoleon, “Never interfere with your enemy when he is making a mistake.”
Is Xi going to take Taiwan? There will never be a weaker president in the White House, but the world is larger than the US. Trump will look weak by giving up an ally that the US has supported for decades. Europe may be on the cusp of a diplomatic coup for supporting Ukraine if/when they prevail. The US won't be invited to the celebration. NATO may/might take diplomatic steps to isolate China if they do, in keeping with a basic rule of law precept – you can't just invade your weaker neighbor. So you see a dynamic where Europe is in ascent on Democracy and the rule of law, the US in decline. Where does China want to be perceived in the world order if Russia is in bad shape economically post-Putin? I think Xi takes the long view but I'm not sure how he sees the dynamics of global power in a state of flux.
I’ve read that too. Trump showed up with no “deliverables” in mind at all. He just brought along all those CEOs.
This ("you should never hold a meeting to hold a meeting") is dangerously false in international relations. The saying might be true in Corporate negotiations, where it makes sense to get the two Big Men together to work out a framework, then have their "little people" hash out the details. It would definitely hold true in the business sector Trump comes from (Real Estate, which is more Mafia than Industry), and, IMO, that's a big reason that ALL of Trump's Foreign Policy have flopped.
International relations are absurdly complex. Each country has its own peculiar internal structures, pressures, concerns, and each leader has different personal styles and tendencies. And each country has different relations, history, and problems with all of its neighbors (and other countries). No single human can hold all those factors in their brain; good leaders develop good teams of people to distribute the load. Trump is a terrible "leader", precisely because he's incapable of anything like teamwork.
*Every* successful international accord requires several tranches of meetings between "little people" before the Big Men can get together and shake hands.
I read somewhere that Xi gave diaper don some rose seeds? Is Xi making fun of diaper don and melon for paving the rose garden?
https://youtu.be/94bdMSCdw20?si=CqVC_jCTNFZGP1Sk